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Thread: War With Iran: An Oncoming Catastrophe?

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    Question War With Iran: An Oncoming Catastrophe?

    A "worst case" scenario involving war with Iran, but interesting reading by someone who was actually in the USA army intelligence and so should know the score.

    http://downwithjugears.blogspot.com/...tastrophe.html

    If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher, unthinkable levels.

    If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans will not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products will not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. The US descends into chaos and becomes a Third World country.

    Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.
    http://northwestfront.org/

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    It most certainly will not be 'resolved in a few weeks'

    Iran can and will hold out for years, it's like Iraq only bigger and more unified and fanatic.

    The article probably overestimates Iran and Syria's conventional capabilities, but Iran can just hunker down with their RPGs&IEDs and wait for the US to come get them, a nearly impossible task, even if our army was not already tied down in Iraq. Oh, and about that, if Iran gives the word, the Shiites (the 2/3 of the people there, the people we saved from Saddam) will rise up in support of Iran.

    Any attack on Iran is ill-advised, any attack on Iran while our army is still stuck in Iraq is beyond retarded.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwordOfTheVistula View Post
    It most certainly will not be 'resolved in a few weeks'

    Iran can and will hold out for years, it's like Iraq only bigger and more unified and fanatic.

    The article probably overestimates Iran and Syria's conventional capabilities, but Iran can just hunker down with their RPGs&IEDs and wait for the US to come get them, a nearly impossible task, even if our army was not already tied down in Iraq. Oh, and about that, if Iran gives the word, the Shiites (the 2/3 of the people there, the people we saved from Saddam) will rise up in support of Iran.

    Any attack on Iran is ill-advised, any attack on Iran while our army is still stuck in Iraq is beyond retarded.
    Bush is almost gone he would face impeachment for any involvement. McCain is going to loose unless Obama is not assassinated by some nut job,black or white.
    For some reason I fear this,I do not know why.I also fear McCain kicking the bucket of natural causes.
    If such a scenario took place it would lead to a US civil war I think particularly between Blacks and Mexicans in poor areas. The Military/Political junta would no doubt seize Venezuela oil assets Mexico as well as .Secession will raise its head again in America and remember the the 14th Amendment was never ratified. You might see a forced exodus of Latinos who are not citizens. The UN would come apart like a cheap Watch in a washing machine.

    Also if the Oil issues was resolved the future for Moslem's in Europe would be pretty damn iffy. War time repatriation to home country's like the Netherlands and Denmark.France would be a war zone,then after a year of terror North Africans will be back in the sands. Civil war in Britain leading to forced expulsion. Moslem's loose their trump card,Oil.

    Russia become the worlds major economic power because of Oil and China kisses Putin's asski. US goes after shale big time, nuclear plants blossom all over Europe and new technology's flourish. Huge WPA like projects for Shale and road reconstruction.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwordOfTheVistula View Post

    Any attack on Iran is ill-advised, any attack on Iran while our army is still stuck in Iraq is beyond retarded.
    Yeah, btw the last time I checked Dubya was still president eyes:. And then there's Cheney. Cheney is the grim reaper, he gets off on death & misery.

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    [...]

    Civil unrest builds.
    We can only hope. Probably the most crucial barrier standing in the way of solving our problems is luxury and comfort. I don't want a war with Iran, but if it ends up creating an economic disaster through skyrocketing gas prices, then this is a very fortunate side-effect for us.

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    Maybe you know better, but I understand that USA imorts most of its oil because the policy is to keep untouched the reserves until a necessary moment. That moment could be for example when Middle Eastern will get dry... or (IMO) if the efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran fail.
    We are talking about big reserves, the whole Gulf. I'm sure that even Dick "quail-blaster" Cheney would have thought on an emergency plan involving those reserves. Anyway, I think USA would still be able to import oil, the Southern Atlantic ocean is unexplored for the most; look at Brazil, Petrobras used to import the oil and now they've found that black gold bucket in the middle of the sea.
    A catastrophe might happen, but I don't think in this short term.

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    The US imports very little oil from the Persian Gulf. The US is still a major producer - number 3 (8 million bpd) behind Saudi Arabia (10.7 million bpd) & Russia (9.7 million bpd). But we import an additional 12 million bpd. Most of that comes from Canada, Mexico & Venezuela. But if oil from the Persian Gulf is cut off that will just increase demand for oil from scources unaffected by conflict with Iran.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DreamWalker View Post

    If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher, unthinkable levels.

    If that happens, this country shuts down.
    The U.S government would subsidise the price of gasoline before letting the country grind to halt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Horned God View Post
    The U.S government would subsidise the price of gasoline before letting the country grind to halt.

    How? The national debt in the US is already at $9 trillion. If my math is right, that means that every single American is in debt by about $30,000.00, mostly to China and Japan. I don't know why this country is not grinding to a halt right now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Birka View Post
    How?
    Number one, by cutting military spending which is beyond astronomical, after that placing a tax on larger private vehicles, so that most people use less fuel. In short, by acting more European.

    There may be other ways as well, people could start driving electric cars, the technology already exists and has for years, all that has been lacking is the political will and the inclination to make the change.


    The national debt in the US is already at $9 trillion. If my math is right, that means that every single American is in debt by about $30,000.00, mostly to China and Japan.

    That's a lot of money, if you look at it on a per person basis. However a national debt is not the same thing as a personal debt because the latter has to be paid back in the working lifetime of the individual debtor while the former is expected to be paid back over several generations.

    A problem with a national debt only occurs when the banks cease to believe that future generations are capable of making good the loan. This hasn't happened yet among America's creditors which is why the debt is still being allowed to increase. The debt will probably continue to increase as long as the interest on it is able to be paid, or until a very major economic road block appears around a corner.

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