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Thread: An Attack on Iran's Nuclear Plant?

  1. #21
    Senior Member Carl's Avatar
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    Another report with a similar message ..... like smoke messages in the sky ....

    Israel has a year to stop Iran bomb, warns ex-spy

    Telegraph 28/06/2008

    A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.

    Shabtai Shavit, an influential adviser to the Israeli parliament's defence and foreign affairs committee, told The Sunday Telegraph that time was running out to prevent Iran's leaders getting the bomb.

    Mr Shavit, who retired from the Israeli intelligence agency in 1996, warned that he had no doubt Iran intended to use a nuclear weapon once it had the capability, and that Israel must conduct itself accordingly.

    "The time that is left to be ready is getting shorter all the time," he said in an interview.


    Mr Shavit, 69, who was deputy director of Mossad when Israel bombed the Osirak nuclear facility in Iraq in 1981, added: "As an intelligence officer working with the worst-case scenario, I can tell you we should be prepared. We should do whatever necessary on the defensive side, on the offensive side, on the public opinion side for the West, in case sanctions don't work. What's left is a military action."

    The "worst-case scenario, he said, is that Iran may have a nuclear weapon within "somewhere around a year".

    As speculation grew that Israel was contemplating its own air strikes, Iran's military said it might hit the Jewish state with missiles and stop Gulf oil exports if it came under attack. Israel "is completely within the range of the Islamic republic's missiles," said Mohammed Ali Jafari, head of the feared Revolutionary Guard. "Our missile power and capability are such that the Zionist regime cannot confront it........."

    (( or Cannot afford not to>???))

    More than 40 per cent of all globally traded oil passes through the 35-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, putting tankers entering or leaving the Gulf at risk from Iranian mines, rockets and artillery, and Mr Jafari's comments were the clearest signal yet that Iran intends to use this leverage in the nuclear dispute.

    Despite offering incentives, the West has failed to persuade Iran to stop enriching uranium. Israeli officials believe the diplomatic process is useless and have been pressing President Bush to launch air strikes before he leaves office on January 20 next year.

    They apparently fear that the chances of winning American approval for an air attack will be drastically reduced if the Democratic nominee wins the election. Mr Obama advocates talks with the regime in Tehran rather than military action.......

    That view was echoed by Mr Shavit, who said: "If [Republican candidate John McCain gets elected, he could really easily make a decision to go for it. If it's Obama: no. My prediction is that he won't go for it, at least not in his first term in the White House."

    He warned that while it would be preferable to have American support and participation in a strike on Iran, Israel will not be afraid to go it alone.

    "When it comes to decisions that have to do with our national security and our own survival, at best we may update the Americans that we are intending or planning or going to do something. It's not a precondition, [getting] an American agreement," he said.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Mazorquero's Avatar
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    Just one question: it's said that Iran is working with uranium to develop a nuclear bomb... now, how will they release it over Israel or wherever?
    It's useless to have a warhead but no means to deploy it. Korea was said to have built long range ballistic missiles, but I doubt Iran will be able to attack Israel with SCUDs. I haven't heard of a rocket development, unless they plan to do an airborne bombing, and that would be very risky. Perhaps the new Shahab-3?
    The thing is that IMO everybody is focusing only in nuclear capacity, but with a mid range missile, chemical or biological weapons would be effective too against civilians, and cheaper than nuclear weapons. Iran's military advisors aren't that stupid. I don't discard that they're building nuke bombs, but having it ready in only one year... I think we're being shown a lie.

    Some other info on USA's thought about Iran's capacity:
    http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/man/...lder/iran.html
    http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/nuke/index.html

    And this is Israel:
    http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/man/...er/israel.html
    (is it me, or there's fewer info than for Iran?)

  3. #23
    Senior Member skyhawk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carl View Post
    well actually Iraq was quite a power before the invasion. There was some concern that it might have been a lot more difficult to get in there. Iraq did have WMD - it depends on definition. They had Chemical, they had Biological; we know - because they used them both!! They also had rockets and a SuperGun - which was used to lob shells into Israel directly. One can easily imagine how the Israelis must have been worried about what might come next.... what almost certainly would have come next, if they had got round to it. But their time expired! Marxist analysis is shallow, Skyhawk! I agree, there weren't nuclear. But in Iran's case - this is not true; we know there is nuclear - we don't know the intention. But others think they do!
    First of all Carl the analysis is not a " marxist analysis " nor is it " shallow " , it is an analysis that has tried to see through the western propaganda filters that you avidly seem to support and promote.

    Did Iraq have WMD ? Well it depends on who you care to believe and when . I mean even Blair has admitted he was wrong about the threats posed by Iraqi WMD , but I think he knew full well that he was wrong at the time it just didn't do his agenda any good by being honest about it.
    I choose to go by the opinions of the weapons inspectors who were in charge of the dismantling of the Iraqi WMD arsenal after the 1991 gulf war. They say that the threat posed by Iraq , as regards to their capability to use WMD , was virtually nil.
    We know they had WMD prior to the 1991 conflict because we had developed them for the Iraqis for use against the Iranians. ( same with the supergun you mentioned )
    In fact we carried on aiding Saddams WMD programme even after the attack on the Kurds , to which we also supplied the satelite imaging he used to conduct the attack .
    During the 1991 conflict Iraq did attack Israel with missiles from mobile SCUD launchers ( though they never had any chemical content )
    The supergun you mention was never operational enough( never completed ) to fire any shells into Israel so I don't know how you can claim that they fired shells at Israel from them. They didn't because they couldn't and it's as simple as that. In fact I can't recall anybody claiming that they did.


    And by the way, Iran isn't Arab. Some Arab states might quite like to see Iran pacified by limited military action.... if that is possible. Maybe it wont be --- but then , they will have nuclear --which could oneday end up almost anywhere!!!! Is that what you want ?
    You are right Iran isn't an Arab state and I accept the correction.............I should have said......... anti Israeli .

    But it's not a case of what I want, the fact is that the dangers of nuclear proliferation caused by the war against terror are well known and have been commented on by experts for quite some time.
    It breaks down like this , if you haven't got nuclear weaponry and you wish to retain some degree of protection from the western powers then it is in your interests to try to acquire them. Look at the difference in the treatment of North Korea compared with the treatment of Iran.

    And if we are being totally honest here............... name a country that could be completely trusted to have programmes of nuclear ( and other WMD) weapons development?

    Britain has been using WMD since the Boer War. The US commited probably the most gravest acts of chemical warfare in modern history in Vietnam. I won't even go into detail on the US/Japanese nuclear crimes , they are self explanitory.

    The biggest defenders of WMD development are the same countries who are masquerading as the champions of non proliferation , it's a farce. Look at who votes against the non proliferation treaties proposed at the UN for example.

    Negotiations with Iran are not dead and buried , well not from Irans point of view nor indeed from the International nuclear institutions for that matter , but the other agenda is taking presidence over them. Hence the propaganda campaign so obediently adhered to by the western corporate mass media , as the Telegraph coverage of Iran duly confirms.
    By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

  4. #24
    Senior Member SwordOfTheVistula's Avatar
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    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/...n4206201.shtml

    Israel Prodding U.S. To Attack Iran
    White House Weighs Striking Iran's Nuclear Complex, Which Could Trigger 3rd War In Region


    (CBS) Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen leaves Tuesday night on an overseas trip that will take him to Israel, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin. The trip has been scheduled for some time but U.S. officials say it comes just as the Israelis are mounting a full court press to get the Bush administration to strike Iran's nuclear complex.

    CBS consultant Michael Oren says Israel doesn't want to wait for a new administration.

    "The Israelis have been assured by the Bush administration that the Bush administration will not allow Iran to nuclearize," Oren said. "Israelis are uncertain about what would be the policies of the next administration vis-à-vis Iran."

    Israel's message is simple: If you don't, we will. Israel held a dress rehearsal for a strike earlier this month, but military analysts say Israel can not do it alone.

    "Keep in mind that Israel does not have strategic bombers," Oren said. "The Israeli Air Force is not the American Air Force. Israel can not eliminate Iran's nuclear program."

    The U.S. with its stealth bombers and cruise missiles has a much greater capability. Vice President Cheney is said to favor a strike, but both Mullen and Defense Secretary Gates are opposed to an attack which could touch off a third war in the region.

    U.S. intelligence estimates Iran won't be able to build a weapon until sometime early in the next decade. But Israel is operating on a much shorter timetable.

    "The Iranians, according to Israeli security sources, will have an operable nuclear weapon by 2009. That's not a very long time," Oren said.

    For now, the Bush administration is counting on new economic sanctions which took effect Tuesday to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program. But nobody's counting on it.
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  5. #25
    Senior Member Carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazorquero View Post
    Just one question: it's said that Iran is working with uranium to develop a nuclear bomb... now, how will they release it over Israel or wherever?
    It's useless to have a warhead but no means to deploy it. Korea was said to have built long range ballistic missiles, but I doubt Iran will be able to attack Israel with SCUDs. I haven't heard of a rocket development, unless they plan to do an airborne bombing, and that would be very risky.
    Well - as if on cue , now you do have something else to consider! An upgraded version of the NKorean longrange rocket has now been tested in Iran ; it is capable of hitting Israel.

    Recent comment suggests however that Iran is not that close to having a nuclear weapon. But - with their new rocket, they could use the nuclear material to put a dirty nuclear bomb onto Israel - which would lead to impossible contamination of a rather small country. Might Israel react to this? It is possible but perhaps unlikely! America does not seem to want Israel to act ; if anyone should , it should be America - and this too seems unlikely......
    So there we are (??) eyes:

    ---------------------

    Iran test-fires long-range missile capable of hitting Israel

    Telegraph 09/07/2008

    Iran has test-fired a long-range missile capable of hitting Israel in an exercise condemned in the West, as tensions run high over its nuclear programme.

    Nine missiles were reported fired in the tests at a secret location in the Iranian desert, according to Iranian television which broadcast footage of the plumes of smoke left following the launches.

    The launch included a reportedly improved Shahab-3 missile, which officials said could reach targets up to 1,250 miles away, as well as the 100-mile-range Fateh and the medium-range Zelzal which can reach 125-250 miles.

    "The aim of these war games is to show we are ready to defend the integrity of the Iranian nation," Hossein Salami, air force commander of the Revolutionary Guard, was quoted as saying by state-run television Al-Alam.

    "Our missiles are ready for shooting at any place and any time, quickly and with accuracy. The enemy must not repeat its mistakes. The enemy targets are under surveillance."

    "Our hands are always on the trigger and our missiles are ready for launch."

    The tests follow a exercises by the Israeli air force, reported by United States intelligence officials to be a "dry run" for an attack nuclear sites inside Iran.

    Exercises were also conducted this week by the US Fifth Fleet, aided by British and Gulf forces, as preparation to protect key petroleum installations in the Gulf in case of conflict.

    Iran has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, critical for shipments of much of the world's oil and gas supply, if it is attacked.

    The test-firing was condemned by the US, where White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said: "Iran's development of ballistic missiles is completely inconsistent with Iran's obligations to the world."

    It has also raised alarm in Israel, where many are convinced sanctions are ineffective and calls are mounting for a strike on Iran before its nuclear ambitions reach a point of no return.

    With US President George W Bush seemingly reluctant to turn to military action, Israel mounted a major training drill over the Mediterranean last month and is thought to be weighing a solo mission.

    ============= Perhaps not ..............??

  6. #26
    Naturbursche
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    It's pure Propaganda that they report the Iran Missile Tests, they just do that to prepare the People for an upcoming War.




    Gruß,
    Boche
    "We Germans fear God, but nothing else in the world; and already that godliness is it, which let us love and foster peace."
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  7. #27
    Senior Member Carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boche View Post
    It's pure Propaganda that they report the Iran Missile Tests, they just do that to prepare the People for an upcoming War.
    Gruß,
    Boche
    Propaganda?? - it is also news... or are we to dispute the facts --- rather like some people doubt the American Moon landing ?eyes::

    I admit - Iran's new rockets , which represent an advance on the previous missiles, do not constitute the whole story. There is also a massive military deployment. But this doesnt mean that it will all be used. Time will tell.


    Iran test-fires more missiles in war games

    Telegraph 10/07/2008

    Iran has test-fired several more missiles in a second day of exercises, flexing its military muscle and further increasing tension in the region over its nuclear ambitions.

    REUTERS

    Iranian officials suggested that missile had been improved to a range of 1,250 miles

    State television reported missiles launched from ships in the Gulf, along with torpedoes and surface-to-surface missiles, and showed a brief clip of two missiles being fired in darkness.

    The test follows Wednesday's launch of nine missiles including a Shahab 3 long-range missile capable of hitting Israel. Iranian officials suggested that missile had been improved to a range of 1,250 miles, though Israeli intelligence officials have suggested this was an exaggeration.

    The war games have been condemned in the West and have raised fears in Israel that Iran will soon reach a point of no return in its quest for nuclear weapons capabilities, although the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has dismissed the idea of an Iranian strike on the Jewish state.

    "We are sending a message to Iran that we will defend American interests and the interests of our allies," the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, said following news of the second round of testing.

    On Wednesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards' air force commander, Hoseyn Salami, said the war games were intended to show Iran's ability to defend itself. "Our missiles are ready for shooting at any place and any time, quickly and with accuracy," he was quoted as saying by state-run Arabic-language television al-Alam.

    Earlier this week, British and American warships wrapped up Persian Gulf exercises on defending key petroleum installations, in case of conflict, and last month Israel held a major training exercise over the Mediterranean widely seen as a dress rehearsal for a pre-emptive strike on Iran.

    Both, military experts say, have probably encouraged Iran to show off its own capabilities.

    Still, the exercises have heightened alarm in Israel, which is thought to be weighing the need for a solo mission in light of US reluctance to mount a military operation. eyes:

    Ephraim Halevy, a former director of the Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence service, told The Telegraph that the missile testing signals that crisis is nearing 'a peak'.....

    "Both sides, Israel and the West on one side and Iran on the other, are engaged in one-upmanship in anticipation of this crisis breaking, and it can break in either direction," he said. "I think the breaking point is approaching There comes a moment where you say we have exhausted our abilities to make proposals and that's it. And I think Iran also understands this......."

    ===

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