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Thread: Obama To Be America's First Black President?

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    Obama To Be America's First Black President?

    Usually don't read up on politics but recently I was surpised to hear from a friend Obama won the Iowa cacus and is ahead of Hillary in NH. This means he could very well be the Democratic Presidential Nominee. What do you guys think?

    Personally I'm suprised. Iowa which is a largely rural white state voted for someone like Obama. Who is the exact opposite.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DriftWood View Post
    Personally I'm suprised. Iowa which is a largely rural white state voted for someone like Obama. Who is the exact opposite.
    This is not that surprising. Iowa is 91% non-Hispanic white and most of the population can afford to be idealistic when they vote for a president. Negative attitudes towards blacks are correlated with amount of interaction with them, both for non-hispanic whites and Hispanics (probably for Asians too but I haven't seen research on that). Obama benefits from this In Iowa. States which are more mixed tend to be republican (red states) if the proportion of white population is sufficiently high.

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    I already commented on his Iowa victory in another thread;

    Quote Originally Posted by Æmeric View Post
    You have to remember that only a very few of Iowa's registered voters actually participate in the caucus. Probably less then 10% of eligible voters. And it took place over 1- 2 hours in the evening on a work day. So the hardcore supporters of a particular candidate can play a major role in the process. Unlike a primary where the polls are probably opened for at least 12 hours with greater turnout. I don't think Obama would have won a primary in Iowa.The Iowa caucus is overrated. Lets see what happens in New Hampshire & South Carolina.
    Another thing, the media has given Obama a free ride. Everyone has heard of him & the press as yet has not done a hatchet job on him. If Hillary loses New Hampshire the Clinton machine will go all out on Obama - at this point they really have nothing to lose by doing so. I don't see Obama getting the Democratic nomination, the Democrats know they will lose the White House if he is the nominee.

    The White voting public has been reluctant to vote in a White ethnic president (or even vice-president), let alone a Negro. In 1960 Kennedy (Irish-Catholic) was elected president, the only White ethnic to be elected to the presidency so far. Nixon's VP was Spiro Agnew who was 1/2 Greek, but he Anglo-Americanized his surname & he was raised protestant by his Virginian mother. He wasn't all that ethnic. Mondale lost in 84 with an Italian woman as his running mate. Dukakis lost big in 1988. Gore would have won in 2000 if his running mate hadn't been a Jew, something that probably cost him his homestate of Tennessse. And Kerry (1/2 Jew paternally, but does a good job impersonating a Boston Brahmin which his mother was ) might have won if he wasn't married to the Portuguese Teresa, who came off as an uppity Latina. So Obama isn't going to be president. And neither is Rudy Guiliani. Or Bill Richards. And probably not Hillary either. I think the Democratic nominee could very well be Al Gore.

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