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Thread: The Ageing and Decline of the German Population

  1. #11
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    Germany's population continues to decline

    http://www.workpermit.com/news/2006_01_23/europe/german_population_declines.htm

    Germany's population continues to decline

    23 January 2006


    Germany's population shrank for a third straight year in 2005 as the trend of fewer births than deaths continued. Immigration did not compensate for the deficit, Federal Statistics Office data showed.

    There were about 82.45 million people living in Germany last year, a decline of around 50,000 from 2004's total of 82.5 million, the Office said.
    Sandra Petcov, an economist at Lehman Brothers in London, said Germany's shrinking population meant it was never going to see rates of overall economic expansion comparable to countries with a growing population.


    "Obviously the growth trend in Germany is going to be lower because of this," Petcov said.

    The number of deaths rose to the 820,000-830,000 range from 818,000 in 2004, and births slipped to the 680,000-690,000 range from 706,000 in 2004.
    That left a deficit of up to 140,000. The deficit was 112,000 in 2004.
    Some 90,000 to 100,000 more people moved to Germany from abroad than left the country, a slightly bigger surplus than 2004's 83,000.

    The last time births outweighed deaths in Germany was in 1971 when there were 1.013 million births and 966,000 deaths.

  2. #12
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    Germany's population decline 'cannot be halted'

    Germany's population could fall to 69 million by 2050 with the proportion of elderly people sharply rising, a report by the Federal Statistics Office said Tuesday.

    Germany currently has 82.4 million people but declining birth rates will reduce the country's population to between 69 million and 74 million by 2050, said the report.

    "The population decline cannot be halted," said Walter Rademacher, the statistics office vice-president.

    Both the decline and ageing of Germany's population are expected to impact on the economy because there will be fewer people in the working age between 20 and 65 years.

    At the end of 2005 about 20 per cent of the population was younger than 20 years and 19 per cent were over 65 years. The remaining 61 per cent were potential members of the workforce.

    By 2050 only half the population will be workforce aged, while 30 per cent will be over 65 and just 15 per cent under 20 years, the report predicts.


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    Re: Germany's population decline 'cannot be halted'

    The article does'nt mention what percentage of the population will be ethnic German 2050. A declining population does'nt have to be a bad thing if there is an increase in the quality of the people. And the national wealth would be divided among fewer individuals. The challenge is how to deal with a declining labor force. The Japanese are facing the same problem but they are investing in labor saving technology such robotics, rather than import cheap labor. A declining population is a disaster if the German response is to allow itself to be overran by non-Germans and cease to be a German nation.

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    Re: Germany's population decline 'cannot be halted'

    I read in another article, in German, that they took roughly 100.000 - 200.000 immigrants per year into consideration. Different studies predict that the percentage of ethnic Germans in large cities under 40 years of age will drop to 50-60%

    Here are very good articles posted on this subject, sadly only in German
    http://forums.skadi.net/showthread.php?t=78963
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    Re: Germany's population decline 'cannot be halted'

    German Population Plunge “Irreversible,” Federal Stats Office Admits
    Expected that one third of all European children will be born to Muslim families by 2025

    By Gudrun Schultz

    BERLIN, Germany, November 9, 2006 (LifeSiteNews.com) - Germany’s downward spiral in population is no longer reversible, the country’s federal statistics office said Tuesday. The birthrate has dropped so low that immigration numbers cannot compensate.
    “The fall in the population can no longer be stopped,” vice-president Walter Rademacher with the Federal Statistics Office said, reported Agence France-Presse.
    Germany has the lowest birthrate in Europe, with an average of 1.36 children per woman. Despite government incentives to encourage larger families, the population is dropping rapidly and that trend will continue, with an expected loss of as much as 12 million by 2050. That would mean about a 15 percent drop from the country’s current population of 82.4 million, the German news source Deutsche Welle reported today.
    The low birthrate will cause the German population to age dramatically over the next 40 years--last year there were 144,000 more deaths than births, and that number could increase to 600,000 by 2050, the FSO forecast stated.
    With a 22 percent reduction in the workforce and increasing costs for senior assistance and medical care, the drop in population is expected to have a radical impact on the nation’s economy, along with the welfare budget.
    “I wouldn’t like to use the word ‘bankrupt’ because it’s a major challenge for the social insurance systems, that’s for certain,” Radermacher said in an interview with DW-Radio. “But the first thing is to reform the social insurance systems…We can learn from other countries…In every case, you need someone who has to work and give you some earnings.”
    “The projections tell us the development of demographic trends will be even more dramatic in the eastern part of Germany,” Radermacher said . “This is because of the fertility rates in the eastern part of Germany, because of internal migration with the borders of Germany and many other demographic factors.”
    While immigrants are increasingly relied upon to compensate for low birth rates in European countries, Radermacher said even factoring in a projected annual influx of 100,000-200,000 migrants won’t prevent the population plunge.
    “Even those people who are immigrants adopt after a couple years the lifestyle and the number of children per family. So the assumption that immigrants will stick to their habits is simply not true.”
    Germany has one of the largest populations of Muslim immigrants in Western Europe, with a Muslim community of over 3 million. That trend is expected to continue, leading some demographic trend-watchers to warn that the country is well on the way to becoming a Muslim state by 2050, Deutsche Welle reported.
    The Brussels Journal reported last month that one third of all European children will be born to Muslim families by 2025. There are an estimated 50 million Muslims living in Europe today--that number is expected to double over the next twenty years.
    The population losses faced by Germany reflect a trend occurring across Europe--The European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat has predicted an overall drop in Europe’s population of 7 million people by 2050.
    The demographic decline coincides with a dramatic drop in Christian religious belief and a consequent rejection of Christian morality and emphasis on the benefits of family life and children.

    http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2006/nov/06110903.html
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    Germany to Lose 12 Million in Population by 2060

    Germany currently has the largest population in Europe, but by 2060 the head count in both France and Britain will have exceeded this number, according to a new study by the EU's statistical office, Eurostat.

    Germany, Europe's biggest economy, has a population of 82.2 million, but the study predicts it will lose 12 million citizens, falling to 70.8 million. This number will overtaken by the UK, predicted to boast some 76.6 million Brits, and France, with 71.8 million.

    The study, “Population Projection 2008-2060,” was released on Tuesday and predicts that the overall European population will arc at 495 million in 2035, after which it will steadily decline. But the study predicts there will be considerable difference between individual member states – thirteen will experience population growth, and fourteen will see a decrease in their populations.

    More at source:
    http://www.thelocal.de/13949/20080827/

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    Germany's Ageing Population Heading for Massive Decline

    The Federal Statistic's Office on Wednesday forecast Germany's rapidly ageing population was likely to decline by 20 percent to around 65 million by 2060.

    The precipitous drop will be accompanied by a dramatic shift in the amount of elderly people in Germany. Of the country's current 82 million inhabitants, some 20 percent are now aged 65. But in 2060, that percentage will increase to 33 percent.

    “In particular the consistently low birthrate and growing life expectancy is leading to an ageing and shrinking of the population,” Federal Statistics Office President Roderich Egeler told a press conference.

    He said the shrinking population will be the “most important political and social challenges in the coming decades” for Germany.

    In the next 50 years, the numbers of Germans being born will continue to decrease while the numbers of deaths increase, more than tripling the current annual birth deficit.

    Egeler said that the country's population decline is unlikely to be stopped by either net immigration or by a slight increase in the current birthrate of 1.4 children per woman.

    But the population of working age people in is expected to drop by as much as 34 percent by 2060, forcing greater immigration in order to prop up the country's generous welfare system for elderly Germans.

    Even in the next 20 years, the working population is expected to suffer the burden of Germany’s ageing population. Today, there are 34 people aged 65 and over to every 100 working-age people. In 2030, there will be 50 retirees to every 100 workers.

    The population projections by the Statistics Office assume Germany’s fertility rate will remain nearly constant and that the life expectancy will increase at a steady rate.
    http://www.thelocal.de/society/20091118-23365.html

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    In the next 50 years, the numbers of Germans being born will continue to decrease while the numbers of deaths increase, more than tripling the current annual birth deficit.
    How can anyone know this?

    But the population of working age people in is expected to drop by as much as 34 percent by 2060, forcing greater immigration in order to prop up the country's generous welfare system for elderly Germans.
    How many times per day are people told they will be forced to accept more immigration? This was not necessary after the devastation of the Thirty Years' War, and the population eventually recovered.

    You know, if I were old, I would rather work until I die a natural death than be an excuse to import turks to take over my country.

    If the government were loyal to those it presumes to govern, it would be offering incentives for bigger families, and promoting a society that is positive about itself. Too bad it isn't.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Huginn ok Muninn View Post
    How can anyone know this?
    They don't know for a fact, they're just predictions, based on the current demographic trends I guess.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Huginn ok Muninn View Post
    How can anyone know this?
    It is quite easy to conclude this, because the number of women already born is the upper limit of women that will be able to have children at a determined point in the future. Assuming that there is not a dramatic increase in fertility, which is not a bold assumption given current attitudes, the greater cohorts of older generations will inevitably lead to a number of deaths that is too large to compensate.

    During phases of population reduction, there will be an immense burden placed on the following generations to care for the worthless generations immediately preceding them even while it becomes increasingly difficult to assert themselves against more dynamic and youthful competition, both internal and external. These circumstances only serve to add difficulty to the task of stabilising social structures to a point where the number of births can reach replacement level, let alone compensate for past failures.

    By the same token, a dysgenic effect is already certain as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Huginn ok Muninn View Post
    This was not necessary after the devastation of the Thirty Years' War, and the population eventually recovered.
    It was expedient, especially in areas that were almost entirely depopulated. Nevertheless, the fertility rate remained solid, with increased child mortality. The situation was not fundamentally different in the immediate aftermath of the last war and we could easily have recovered if not for the friendly US domination that forced us to participate in the West and its subsequent development.

    Quote Originally Posted by Huginn ok Muninn View Post
    You know, if I were old, I would rather work until I die a natural death than be an excuse to import turks to take over my country.
    By the time the German economy had recovered, the pre-war generation was almost gone and the war generation had already been depleted by the war. In order to guarantee further economic development, which is of course pointless if it does not fuel our biological development, a scheme was devised to import guest workers. Initially, these were quite literally guests, rotated out after a time, but industry complained that it was not profitable enough, because workers had to be abandoned by the time they started to become competent in what they were doing. For this reason, the guest workers became a permanent presence.

    The Western notion of economic success as the primary purpose of life contributed further to our demographic destruction by devaluing motherhood from a role in its own right that is essential to society to something that is only fit for animals and foreigners. Women in Western society can secure prestige and power by self-actualising into rich losers, not through reproductive success.

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