Results 1 to 2 of 2

Thread: Manipulation in Time of Economic Crisis

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    michael's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Last Online
    Sunday, March 22nd, 2020 @ 07:59 AM
    Status
    Available
    Ethnicity
    Germanic
    Ancestry
    USA, UK, Germany, Doggerland
    Country
    Australia Australia
    State
    Queensland Queensland
    Location
    Sunshine Coast
    Gender
    Family
    Grandparent
    Occupation
    Retired
    Politics
    Self Determined and Governed
    Religion
    Proto-Heathen
    Posts
    128
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    0
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    4
    Thanked in
    4 Posts

    Manipulation in Time of Economic Crisis

    This article is just one of dozens of articles that world 'leaders' are using to manipulate the state of play. read the article, then read the posted info I have offered.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25248989-5013871,00.html


    Posted on: March 26, 2009 4:08 PM, by Jonah Lehrer
    Nicholas Kristof has a great column today on Philip Tetlock and political experts, who turn out to be astonishingly bad at making accurate predictions:

    http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2009/...ny_experts.php
    The expert on experts is Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. His 2005 book, "Expert Political Judgment," is based on two decades of tracking some 82,000 predictions by 284 experts. The experts' forecasts were tracked both on the subjects of their specialties and on subjects that they knew little about. The result? The predictions of experts were, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses -- the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.
    "It made virtually no difference whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience," Mr. Tetlock wrote.
    Why are political pundits so often wrong? In my book, I devote a fair amount of ink to Tetlock's epic study. The central error diagnosed by Tetlock was the sin of certainty: pundits were so convinced they were right that they ended up neglecting all those facts suggesting they were wrong. "The dominant danger [for pundits] remains hubris, the vice of closed-mindedness, of dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly," Tetlock writes. (This is also why the most eminent pundits were the most unreliable. Being famous led to a false sense of confidence.)
    Is there a way to fix this mess? Or is cable news bound to be populated by talking heads who perform worse than random chance? As Kristof notes, Tetlock advocates the creation of a "trans-ideological Consumer Reports for punditry," which doesn't strike me as particularly feasible. Instead, I'd argue that the easiest fix is for anchors on news shows to simply spend more time asking pundits about all those predictions that turned out to be wrong. The point isn't to generate a public shaming - although that would certainly be more entertaining than most cable news shows - but to force pundits to genuflect and introspect on why they made a mistake in the first place. Were they too ideological? Were they thinking like a hedgehog? What relevant facts did they ignore? And why did they ignore them?
    By asking the right questions, we can make our pundits better. They'll never be perfect, or even worth their inflated paychecks, but perhaps we can help them perform better than chimpanzees throwing darts. Tetlock ends his book with some take-home advice on what we can all learn from the failures of political experts: "We need to cultivate the art of self-overhearing," he says, "to learn how to eavesdrop on the mental conversations we have with ourselves." A big part of that mental conversation is studying the biases and habits that led us to err.
    And here, via Steve, is a new study by Gregory Berns of Emory on how even bad "expert" advice can influence decision-making in the brain. Here's the Wired summary:
    In the study, Berns' team hooked 24 college students to brain scanners as they contemplated swapping a guaranteed payment for a chance at a higher lottery payout. Sometimes the students made the decision on their own. At other times they received written advice from Charles Noussair, an Emory University economist who advises the U.S. Federal Reserve. Though the recommendations were delivered under his imprimatur, Noussair himself wouldn't necessarily follow it. The advice was extremely conservative, often urging students to accept tiny guaranteed payouts rather than playing a lottery with great odds and a high payout. But students tended to follow his advice regardless of the situation, especially when it was bad.
    When thinking for themselves, students showed activity in their anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex -- brain regions associated with making decisions and calculating probabilities. When given advice from Noussair, activity in those regions flat lined.
    I'm most interested in the reduced activity seen in the ACC, since that brain area is often associated with cognitive conflict. (It's activated, for instance, when people are presented with contradictory facts or dissonant information.) I think one way to understand the influence of experts is that, because they're "experts," we aren't as motivated to think of all the reasons they might be spouting nonsense. If so, that would be an unfortunate neural response, since all the evidence suggests they really are spouting nonsense.

  2. #2
    Senior Member

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Last Online
    Tuesday, August 21st, 2012 @ 11:02 PM
    Status
    On Holiday
    Ethnicity
    Anglo-American
    Country
    United States United States
    State
    New York New York
    Location
    in a valley between two lakes
    Gender
    Family
    Devoted father & husband
    Politics
    E Pluribus Unum
    Religion
    Ascension
    Posts
    585
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    0
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    12
    Thanked in
    12 Posts
    "The most dangerous man, to any government, is the man who Is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost invariably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And if he is not romantic personally, he is apt to spread discontent among those who are." H.L. Mencken

    Is it any wonder that few people think for themselves?

    Today, the most vile apparatus of indoctrination is conveyed through the teacher and the scholar. Instead of performing the service of educating the youth, they peddle State approved propaganda. Instead of promoting thought, the mind of the youth is filled with useless words, numbers, and dates. We teach them obedience and stamp out any form of creative thinking. Think of the brain as a PC. The more you fill up the capacity of your hard drive, the longer it takes to process information and the less room you have for thought. Add this to the fact that we are also conditioned to stay within the stream and you have the modern political shell. Empty vessels capable of manipulation. How pathetic.

    http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=...ces-how-making

    http://www.livescience.com/health/07...mysteries.html

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 0
    Last Post: Sunday, May 29th, 2011, 11:58 PM
  2. Replies: 15
    Last Post: Tuesday, February 1st, 2011, 09:13 AM
  3. A Japanese Perspective on the Economic Crisis
    By SwordOfTheVistula in forum Economics, Business, & Finance
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: Friday, October 24th, 2008, 11:12 AM
  4. Marxist Revival Aided by Economic Crisis
    By Loyalist in forum Economics, Business, & Finance
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 07:13 PM
  5. European Economic Strategy in the Crisis
    By Carl in forum Economics, Business, & Finance
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: Sunday, October 12th, 2008, 07:02 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •