The Global Spread in HIV

[Loki]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/h...ml/default.stm

Global picture

A total of 40 million people around the world are living with HIV - more than the population of Poland. Nearly two-thirds of them live in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in the two hardest hit countries HIV prevalence is almost 40%. The global HIV/Aids epidemic killed more than 3 million people in 2003 and there are emerging and growing epidemics in China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, several Central Asian Republics, the Baltic States, and North Africa.




Africa's epidemic




Speed of spread

HIV is spreading fastest in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The number of people infected almost tripled between 1999 and 2002.
These regions appeared to have escaped the epidemic until the late 1990s when cases increased sharply, largely driven by intravenous drug use.

The number of people affected, however, is small compared to that in Africa.



Key countries

Predicting the future global spread of HIV is very complex and few studies attempt it.
This analysis by the US intelligence community looked at several countries which are likely to see large numbers of new infections.

It estimated the number of people likely to be living with HIV by 2010.

The UN has predicted similar trends, estimating that China will have 10m cases by 2010 and India 20-25m.




2010: Best scenario case

This study looked at how improved prevention measures could slow the spread of HIV.
It predicted 45 million new infections in poor and middle income countries by 2010 if no improvements were made. But it said that 29 million of those infections could be averted if a set of prevention and care measures from successful projects around the world was implemented immediately.

The map shows these figures in comparison to the number of people living with HIV in 2002.

[Saoirse]

And niggerians are flooding Ireland with 10-15 million infected with AIDS.

[Mac Seafraidh]

The negroids spawned AIDS. In Ireland it is the same as America. Black Americans don't even care about AIDS just like their ancestors have no education about it.

[Dr. Solar Wolff]

Loki,

I know you are a sophisticated scientist. One edition of Scientific American from 1997 (if forget which) did an article on HIV. The point is that extreme northern Europeans posses an allele for HIV immunity, which, in homozygous state, confirs absolute resistance to HIV. Hetrozygotes have delayed onsetand perhaps live longer. Frequency for the homozygote is .01 This allele seems to have occurred, according to the article, with the Black Plague in Europe. It seems it is also applicable to HIV. Hardy-Weinberg pop.genetics formula indicates that the frequency for this allele is 0.10 in the northern European population (homo and hetrozygotes). What this means is that HIV will NEVER whipe out northern Europeans. At least 1% will survive and probably more like 10% will live long enough to reproduce (this assumes a total epidemic in northern Europe with everyone exposed and these are only the figures for the first generation--they will go up rapidly in F2). This allele almost disappears south of the Alps and east of the Black Sea.

AIDS should be allowed to take its natural course. As someone said, more people are suffering from Alzheimers in Iowa than AIDS. What's the big deal?

[Gesta Bellica]

Loki,

I know you are a sophisticated scientist. One edition of Scientific American from 1997 (if forget which) did an article on HIV. The point is that extreme northern Europeans posses an allele for HIV immunity, which, in homozygous state, confirs absolute resistance to HIV. Hetrozygotes have delayed onsetand perhaps live longer. Frequency for the homozygote is .01 This allele seems to have occurred, according to the article, with the Black Plague in Europe. It seems it is also applicable to HIV. Hardy-Weinberg pop.genetics formula indicates that the frequency for this allele is 0.10 in the northern European population (homo and hetrozygotes). What this means is that HIV will NEVER whipe out northern Europeans. At least 1% will survive and probably more like 10% will live long enough to reproduce (this assumes a total epidemic in northern Europe with everyone exposed and these are only the figures for the first generation--they will go up rapidly in F2). This allele almost disappears south of the Alps and east of the Black Sea.

AIDS should be allowed to take its natural course. As someone said, more people are suffering from Alzheimers in Iowa than AIDS. What's the big deal?

What scares me is that 1-10% that will survive will be extincted thru misgeneration

[Scoob]

Loki,

I know you are a sophisticated scientist. One edition of Scientific American from 1997 (if forget which) did an article on HIV. The point is that extreme northern Europeans posses an allele for HIV immunity, which, in homozygous state, confirs absolute resistance to HIV. Hetrozygotes have delayed onsetand perhaps live longer. Frequency for the homozygote is .01 This allele seems to have occurred, according to the article, with the Black Plague in Europe. It seems it is also applicable to HIV. Hardy-Weinberg pop.genetics formula indicates that the frequency for this allele is 0.10 in the northern European population (homo and hetrozygotes). What this means is that HIV will NEVER whipe out northern Europeans. At least 1% will survive and probably more like 10% will live long enough to reproduce (this assumes a total epidemic in northern Europe with everyone exposed and these are only the figures for the first generation--they will go up rapidly in F2). This allele almost disappears south of the Alps and east of the Black Sea.

AIDS should be allowed to take its natural course. As someone said, more people are suffering from Alzheimers in Iowa than AIDS. What's the big deal?

That would make HIV very useful as a bio-warfare agent for Nordicists, would it not? AIDS is spreading very quickly in Africa, and I've heard they also have an allele that makes them EXTRA susceptible to HIV.

[Eikþyrnir]

Women are more physically susceptible to HIV infection than men, according to the UNAIDS report. In sub-Saharan Africa -- the worst-affected region -- nearly 60 percent of adults living with HIV are women. East Asia saw a 56 percent increase over the past two years.

Nearly half of 37.2 million adults living with HIV were women, said a report from United Nations released on Tuesday.
The number of women living with HIV has risen in each region of the world in the past two years, according to AIDS Epidemic Update 2004, published by Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS).

"Increasingly the face of AIDS is young and female," said Kathleen Cravero, deputy executive director of UNAIDS on a news conference held in London.

In East Asia, there was a 56 percent increase over the past two years, followed by Eastern Europe and Central Asia with 48 percent, said Kathleen Cravero.

According to the report, in sub-Saharan Africa, the worst-affected region, close to 60 percent of adults living with HIV are women.

Women were more physically susceptible to HIV infection than men. Male-to-female HIV transmission during sex was about twice as likely to occur as female-to-male transmission, the report said.

In addition to being biologically vulnerable to HIV infection, many women and girls, particularly in Southern Africa, found themselves using sex as a commodity in exchange for goods, services, money, or basic necessities -- often with older men, the report indicated.

The report, released ahead of World AIDS Day on December 1, shows the number of adults and children with HIV reached its highest level ever in 2004 with an estimated 39.4 million, compared to about 36.6 million two years ago.

Over three million people died of the illness in this year

http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story....category=scnce

[Mac Seafraidh]

HIV infection from overseas

The increase in heterosexual infection
The annual figures for HIV infections, published recently, show an alarming trend. Homosexually acquired infections have been relatively stable for ten years (they are now at about 1700 a year). However, heterosexually acquired HIV has increased by a factor of five from about 700 in 1994 to 3,800 in 2003.

Infection acquired overseas
The increase has been particularly sharp since 1999, much of it due to imported infections. In 2003 about 90% of newly diagnosed heterosexual infections were thought to have been acquired overseas, mostly in Africa. Of the 35,500 patients seen for care in that year 15,600 (44%) had been exposed to heterosexual infection in Africa.

South East Africa
Three countries – Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe – accounted for about 1500 cases in each of the last two years. This was about a quarter of all new infections in the UK.

Cost
According to Professor Pat Troop, Chief Executive of the Health Protection Agency "Each HIV infection prevented can save between £500,000 and £1million in treatment and lost productivity …" Taking the lower figure gives the cost of infection, just from these three countries as £750 million a year. The government’s response so far is to increase funding for all Sexually Transmitted Diseases by £100m a year for three years.

Immigration from South East Africa
At present visas are not required for Malawians. In 2003, visas issued to the other two countries were as follows:

Zambia Zimbabwe Malawi Total
Work Permits 170 565 n.a. 735
Work Permit dependants 445 1380 n.a. 1825
Spouses/fiancés 40 170 n.a. 210
Students 450 790 n.a. 1240
Others 295 2240 n.a. 2535
6545

The prevalence rates for HIV among adults in these countries at the end of 2003 were, according to the UN, Zambia 16.5%, Zimbabwe 24.6%, and Malawi 14.2%. The total number of cases was estimated at 3.6 million.

Conclusion
The Health Protection Agency’s annual report makes it abundantly clear that these three countries are a major source of HIV infection in Britain. The immigration figures suggest that about 6,500 people a year continue to be granted visas for admission to Britain without any check on their HIV status. Malawians do not even need visas. This situation cannot be allowed to continue. 47 other countries, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States require HIV tests of immigrants. The application is then considered in the light of all the circumstances. Britain should follow suit without further delay.

2 December 2004

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/Brie..._infection.asp

[friedrich braun]

Study: AIDS Problem Growing in Russia

Wed Jan 12, 3:32 PM ET

By MARIA DANILOVA, Associated Press Writer

MOSCOW - HIV (news - web sites)/AIDS (news - web sites) is spreading at a devastating pace in Russia, with a new study showing an estimated 1 million people infected — three times the number officially reported — U.S. and Russian experts said Wednesday.
A recently released 90-page report by Murray Feshbach and Cristina Galvin of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars urged Russian authorities to take aggressive steps to fight the epidemic. The study was sponsored by U.S. Agency for International Development.


According to official statistics, Russia has some 300,000 HIV-positive people. But Feshbach, as well as Russian experts, said the true number is closer to 1 million. The study estimated the number of AIDS deaths in Russia at 13,000, almost three times the official figure of 4,800.


If officials ignore the problem, "the consequences will be devastating to the society, family formation, to the military, labor productivity" within two to three years, Feshbach said by telephone from Washington.


Local experts say authorities are not getting the message.


"Despite all that we have been saying and what international organizations have been saying, funding for HIV/AIDS is not being increased, but is actually being reduced because of inflation," said Vadim Pokrovsky, the head of the Federal AIDS Center.


Pokrovsky said that the 2005 national budget envisages $4.3 million for HIV/AIDS, whereas the amount needed is nearly 40 times higher — $161.7 million.


The study also found HIV testing has dropped significantly in recent years, after the financial burden for tests was transferred from the federal to the regional budget.


The study showed that more than 80 percent of HIV/AIDS-infected Russians are under 30, compared with 70 percent in North America and Western Europe.


Pokrovsky also said the epidemic is shifting from mainly intravenous drug users to transmission through heterosexual activity.


"This past year has seen a major shift from drug users to heterosexual sex — in some regions as many as half of new infections were the result of heterosexual intercourse," Pokrovsky said.

[SouthernBoy]

Don't certain northern types have the ability to resist AIDS?