http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/h...ml/default.stm
Global picture
A total of 40 million people around the world are living with HIV - more than the population of Poland. Nearly two-thirds of them live in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in the two hardest hit countries HIV prevalence is almost 40%. The global HIV/Aids epidemic killed more than 3 million people in 2003 and there are emerging and growing epidemics in China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, several Central Asian Republics, the Baltic States, and North Africa.
Africa's epidemic
Speed of spread
HIV is spreading fastest in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The number of people infected almost tripled between 1999 and 2002.
These regions appeared to have escaped the epidemic until the late 1990s when cases increased sharply, largely driven by intravenous drug use.
The number of people affected, however, is small compared to that in Africa.
Key countries
Predicting the future global spread of HIV is very complex and few studies attempt it.
This analysis by the US intelligence community looked at several countries which are likely to see large numbers of new infections.
It estimated the number of people likely to be living with HIV by 2010.
The UN has predicted similar trends, estimating that China will have 10m cases by 2010 and India 20-25m.
2010: Best scenario case
This study looked at how improved prevention measures could slow the spread of HIV.
It predicted 45 million new infections in poor and middle income countries by 2010 if no improvements were made. But it said that 29 million of those infections could be averted if a set of prevention and care measures from successful projects around the world was implemented immediately.
The map shows these figures in comparison to the number of people living with HIV in 2002.
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