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Thread: Climate Change & Global Warming

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deary View Post
    Most people also think that the earth's axis is still, but it actually wobbles much like a top. To put it simply, the degree it is to or from the sun determines how cold or warm the earth gets. The ice ages are connected with this cycle. There are many ideas as to how soon we should be feeling the effects of an oncoming ice age. Nonetheless, it will be getting colder.
    I'd just like to expand on this for the benefit of others.

    This is one of three Milankovitch effects on Earth-Sun geometry. This one in discussion is called the obliquity of the elliptic.

    http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibi...ilt_graph.html

    The Earth wobbles on its axis between 21.6 and 24.5 degrees, and it basically changes every 41 000 years. This graph shows 750 000 years of it. The orange line is our current tilt.
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  2. #52
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    Sun-like Star Flips Its Magnetic Field - Lessons for Climate Change?

    Sun-like Star Flips Its Magnetic Field Like Our Sun: First Observation

    ScienceDaily (Feb. 26, 2008)

    An international group of astronomers have discovered that the sun-like star tau Bootis flipped its magnetic field from north to south sometime during the last year. It has been known for many years that the Sun's magnetic field changes its direction every 11 years, but this is the first time that such a change has been observed in another star. The team of astronomers, who made use of Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope atop Mauna Kea, are now closely monitoring tau Bootis to see how long it will be before the magnetic field reverses again. Magnetic field reversals on the sun are closely linked to the varying number of sunspots seen on the sun's surface. The last “solar minimum” time when the number of sunspots was the lowest and the magnetic flip occurred, was in 2007. The first sunspot of the new cycle appeared just last month.

    The magnetic cycle of the Sun impacts the Earth's climate and is believed to have caused the “little ice age” in the seventeen century. The Earth's magnetic field also flips, although much less frequently and more erratically. The international team caught tau Bootis in the process of flipping its magnetic field while they were mapping the magnetic fields of stars.

    What makes tau Bootis even more interesting is that it harbors a giant planet orbiting very close to the surface of the star. The planet is actually so close (only one twentieth the distance between the sun and Earth) and so massive (about 6.5 times the size of Jupiter) that it succeeded in forcing the surface of the star to co-rotate with the planet's orbital motion through tidal torques. This is the same effect that causes the moon to co-rotate around Earth such that we see only one side of the moon.

    Since the astronomers managed to catch tau Bootis in this state of magnetic flipping during just two years of observations, it is likely that this event is much more frequent on tau Bootis than it is on the sun. It is possible that the giant planet that has already managed to speed up the surface of tau Bootis is also spinning up the magnetic engine of its host star. The astronomers will keep their telescopes focused on tau Bootis in coming years to make sure they catch the star's next magnetic turnover. Their goal is a better understanding of how magnetic engines work in stars, including our sun.

    Slightly hotter and 20 percent more massive than the sun, tau Bootis is fairly bright and visible with the naked eye and located only 51 light-years away from us. It currently rises about midnight and is visible for most of the night near the bright star Arcturus in the constellation Bootis in the northeast part of the sky. This work is published in the British journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

    Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0225133649.htm

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    ....Star flips... magnetic field.........

    The sunspot cycle is much more complicated than the magnetic field reversals seem to indicate. The formation of sunspots results from magnetohydrodynamic interaction between the solar magnetic field and the conductive plasma which underlies the solar photosphere

    The gaseous body of the Sun rotates differentially, rather than as a solid body does. There is much shear within gas at different latitudes. This distorts the magnetic lines of force which are "frozen" into the plasma by magnetohydrodynamic interaction. Eventually, the field becomes so contorted that the coupling between it and the plasma breaks down; a loop of magnetic flux breaks out of the photosphere. The places where it enters and leaves the photosphere we see as sunspots.

    At sunspot maximum, not only is the efficiency of radiation from the photosphere reduced by the abundance of sunspots, but the external magnetic field is greatly weakened .

    A weak external solar magnetic field allows more cosmic ray particles to enter the inner part of the Solar System. The major source of nuclei for the formation of cloud droplets is ions of nitrogen and oxygen produced by collision between atoms of these gases and cosmic ray particles.

    With more ions for water vapour to condense onto, more cloud droplets form, cloud cover increases, the albedo [reflectivity] of the Earth's atmosphere increases, and more solar radiation is reflected into space rather than reaching the Earth's surface. Hence, the Earth's surface cools.

    The "Little Ice Age" may well have resulted from a weakening of the external solar magnetic field, but this may be unrelated to the sunspot cycle. Sunspot maxima last for only a few years every 11 years. The "Little Ice Age" lasted 500 years.

    The external solar magnetic field has become stronger during the past decade, which may contribute to present global warming, but this change has not been reflected conspicuously in sunspot numbers.

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    Has the Climate Change Debate Shifted?

    Regardless of whether “natural” or “anthropogenic”, there can no doubt, that Climate Change is one of the biggest threats facing the entire question of sustainability of life and our civilizations on Earth. However, the repeated accusations and denials, in relation to the role of human activities, should no longer arise. Skeptics frequently cite such “data” as the surface of Mars heating up at the same rate as the Earth as “evidence” that the main drivers are natural effects, to enhance claims that not only are we “not responsible” but further that there is very little we can do, in the face of this impending extraterrestrial threat (meaning of course, the variations Sun’s radiation output, magnetic field shifts and eventual red giant phase).

    However, when objectively examining all the evidence that has been made available since this debate became “mainstream” about 20 yr ago, one thing has become clear – the question is no longer whether it is human activities or natural variations that are responsible – it is clearly a combination of both.

    Even if it turns out that our activities are not the dominant “driving force” of detected climate change, the “business as usual” scenario should not be seen as a reasonable alternative; one way or the other, even if climate variation is predominantly natural or geologic in origin, human activities within the last 200 yr or so (since the “industrial revolution”) are not helping the situation. While paleoclimatological evidence exists to show that there have been dramatic differences in mean sea level and global temperature averages (as well as the extent of tropical-type vegetation) along a geologic time-scale, the critical point, is that many of the factors (“forcers” and “reactors”) in our current environment never existed in the past – many of the culprits (such as CFC) do not occur freely in nature, further to which, the rate of change of the release of naturally occurring GHGs is unprecedented and undeniably a result of human activities.

    In that regard, the argument of natural vs anthropogenic factors resembles the biodiversity debate – some may suggest that species evolution, adaptation, optimization and extinction is a natural process of selection, and that it is highly presumptious on the part of humanity to believe that we can influence or do anything about that process. The counter-arguments typically point out that the time frames are important – yes species generally have the capacity to adapt incrementally to changes in their environment over time, but concern over the more recent spate of extinctions is related to the time required to achieve this, since the rate of environmental change is what overwhelms the species (and we have insufficient information to fully ascertain the impacts of such changes on human and ecological health).

    As a result, it is very true that global warming and climate change are a natural process on the Earth (and other Solar System entities); the main issue is that the new or additional parameters added by human activities make it very difficult to use past cycles of “Ice Ages” and “Tropical Ages” to predict what is expected if we do nothing and continue the process of natural resource appropriation and conversion at our current rates. So what is important here, is once again time frames – humans, possibly more than any other species, have the capacity to adapt to environmental change, and we have obviously done so many times before.

    But even if global warming (or alternatively cooling) is a natural process, there has never been this scale of humans (and related natural resource conversion and re-distribution) on the Earth. The majority of the surface environment of the Earth is essentially uninhabitable (70% water, etc) so if our spatially restricted activity has such a disproportionate impact, then it is our duty and responsibility to make the necessary adjustments if we genuinely hope for the right and privilege of an existence with any semblance of sustainability.

    One of the main factors is that while some of the countries regarded as main “polluters” have exercised their prerogative to not sign-on to the various “agreements” in recent years, it does not mean that “we” the individuals are not vested with the decision-making capacity to make our own contribution in our day-to-day lives, regardless of where on Earth we live and work.

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    Well, what we know is that climatic changes have occured in the past which were far more dramatic than what is happening now, and they had nothing to do with humans. There is no reason to believe humans are responsible for what's happening (if in fact anything's happening at all).

    If pollution needs to be reduced then people can discuss it, but they can leave climate change out of the debate. It's another issue altogether. I tend to think it's a good idea to keep pollution levels as low as practically possible, but for reasons other than global warming.

    In short, anthropogenic global warming is a load of nonsense, and simply a political tool of the left to get control in the name of socialism.

    Does anyone remember the "hole in the ozone layer" business a few years back? It was the rage among the left for a while, with all the typical doomsday predictions about the rate of expansion and when the hole would reach such and such a part of the world (you could almost hear the whisper "so vote Labour at the next election" ), resulting in this or that awful catastrophe, and of course, big business and capitalism were the cause of it all.

    But some years ago, media talk of the ozone hole completely ended, with no explanation; most people probably didn't notice, they were just going about their own business. Turns out that this ozone hole began to contract, and has continued to do so ever since, if I'm not mistaken; in all likelihood it has been expanding and contracting throughout history.

    I predict that in a few years time this global warming business (note that it's generally referred to these days as "climate change" because the former is becoming less convincing) will go the same way as the ozone hole affair. It will be shown to be a complete farce and people might even completely forget about it, and the left will be on to the next conjob they can think of.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhydderch
    Well, what we know is that climatic changes have occured in the past which were far more dramatic than what is happening now, and they had nothing to do with humans. There is no reason to believe humans are responsible for what's happening (if in fact anything's happening at all).
    Of course, nothing's happening and human activity has nothing to do with it. Let's continue shopping and paying our credit cards and everything will be just fine

    P.S. climate change and environmental awareness, is, of course, another communist conspiracy

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    Of course, nothing's happening and human activity has nothing to do with it.
    The world has big problems, which shouldn't be ignored and turned away from, but climate change isn't one of them Your fussing over a farce like this instead of concentrating on the real problems

    Let's continue shopping and paying our credit cards and everything will be just fine
    Everything won't be, but the climate will

    Now, away with your "capitalist conspiracy" theory.....

    P.S. climate change and environmental awareness, is, of course, another communist conspiracy
    "Climate change" is a Neo-Marxist tool, yes, and environmental awareness, well, some are genuinely concerned while others are indeed using it for political purposes, often exploiting the former.

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    http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=157608


    - Research Confirms Blair Suspicion That Economic Growth Significantly Damaged by Kyoto Framework and Emissions Targets

    - Kyoto Targets to Lead to Average Rises of 26% in Electricity Prices Across UK, Italy, Germany and Spain

    New research published today (7th November 2005) by the International Council for Capital Formation (ICCF) reveals the broad and significant economic repercussions of adopting Kyoto for the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain - and specifically its impact for each nation on energy prices, economic growth (in terms of GDP) and jobs.

    The series of in-depth studies analysed the economic and energy implications of meeting emissions reductions defined under the Kyoto Protocol through an emissions trading regime. An assumption was made that the EU emissions trading scheme will be broadened to cover all sectors, including households and transportation. The studies show a significant rise in energy costs for consumers and businesses.

    The research revealed that if the four countries meet their Kyoto emission reduction targets in 2010 they face:

    - Increasing energy bills: An average increase in electricity prices of 26% and an average increase of 41% of natural gas prices by 2010 (across UK, Germany, Spain and Italy - see full table in notes to editors)

    - Significant job losses: Job losses of at least 200,000 in each of Italy, Germany, UK and Spain to meet Kyoto targets by 2010 - rising to as many as 611,000 in Spain in 2010

    - Damage to economy: A significant reduction in GDP below base case levels by 2010: 0.8% for Germany (18.5 billion Euros), 3.1% for Spain (26 billion Euros), 2.1% for Italy (27 billion Euros) and 1.1% for the UK (22 billion Euros).

    The ICCF research concludes that these consequences would severely damage economic growth and adversely affect standards of living across Europe. Published only days after the Gleneagles Dialogue meeting of the G8 countries in London, the research confirms Prime Minister Tony Blair's view that countries are 'nervous' about emissions targets and 'would not sacrifice economic growth for external agreements'.

    The ICCF hope that these findings will contribute to the ongoing debate on how to develop an international framework for tackling climate change - and send a message to the EU Commission as it prepares for the first official Meeting of the Parties of the Kyoto Protocol in Montreal at the end of November.

    Dr Margo Thorning, Managing Director of the ICCF, commented:

    "The findings of our research support Blair in his recent move away from the "target and timetable" approach to climate policy - and suggest that an alternative approach is urgently needed for both the developing and developed world. A cooperative global approach to reducing emission growth, building on the Asia-Pacific Pact, is more likely to produce real emissions reductions, without damaging economic growth in the EU and elsewhere. "

    - For all media enquiries and for a summary of the four reports, please contact ICCF press office on +44-(0)207-618-9100 or +32-2 230-70-20.

    - Full copies of all the research are available on www.iccfglobal.org.

    - For more information about the ICCF, please contact Dr. Margo Thorning, ICCF at: Park Leopold, Rue Wiertz 50/28 B-1050 Brussels, BELGIUM, +1-202-468-09-03, mthorning@iccfglobal.org . The ICCF can also be reached in Washington DC at 1750 K Street,NW, Suite 400,Washington D.C. 20006.

    - Breakdown of impact on energy prices in individual countries:


    Electricity Natural Gas
    2010 2020 2010 2020
    Italy 13% 14% 44% 54%
    UK 35% 34% 46% 57%
    Spain 23% 27% 42% 51%
    Germany 31% 32% 30% 39%
    Average 26% 27% 41% 50%
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    Surely whether or not the weather changing is human influenced, (as a geologist I have somewhat strong opinions on this) is unimportant the fact that it is is pretty well documented, but how much it will change and over what time scale remains totally unknown. Surley it is better to discuss what can be done to facilitate the survival of us as a race rather than argue over what are effectively inconsequential details?
    The problem the human race has as a whole is that there are simply too many of us and that could, with a little bit of change, maybe a food crisis cause a big catastrophe, it is unlikely that we would be wiped out, but it is depressing to think that a lot of the technology could be lost
    Cattle die, kinsmen die,
    the self must also die;
    but glory never dies,
    For the one who is able to achieve it.

    Sayings of the High One.

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