View Poll Results: Preferred measures to combat the Coronavirus?

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  • Shut down borders, lockdown of non-essential businesses, curfew

    3 42.86%
  • Shut down borders, but let business and daily life continue, while isolating the vulnerable

    4 57.14%
  • Other proposed measures (explain)

    0 0%
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Thread: Coronavirus: What Measures Do You Prefer Your Government Implemented In Response To The Ongoing Pandemic?

  1. #1
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    Coronavirus: What Measures Do You Prefer Your Government Implemented In Response To The Ongoing Pandemic?

    The way I see it, there are only two reasonable options to combat the spread of the Coronavirus, at this point, and trying to reduce the damage it risks to make on human life and national economies.

    1. Shutdown of borders, lockdown of non-essential businesses, institutions and public activities, and a general curfew for the common people, all in the hopes of flattening out the curve as much as possible, to avoid hospitals being over-capacitated, and saving as many lives we can until the virus dies down (either through mass-vaccination or natural herd-immunity).

    Possible downside: Herd-immunity might not be naturally achieved, and a safe vaccination might be years away. National economies will experience a massive crash, which leads to a new depression that will take many years to recuperate from, accompanied by material and psychological human suffering.

    2. Shutdown of borders, but otherwise letting life go on as normal to avoid an economic crash. Elderly and vulnerable people are isolated from the rest of society as best they can, until the virus is eradicated.

    Possible downside: Hospitals will be overburdened, and between 2 and 5 percent of the population might die (possibly more). The virus becomes endemic, and will have recurring outbreaks for years to come. Lots of people who could have been saved will die.
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    At this point, I demand the first option, "the hammer", to flatten the curve - economy be damned. Not for months upon months, but a solid shutdown for at least two weeks with all the red tape - I want people to have to have clearance to leave their house, enforced to the full extent of the law. If that meant we would have a depression then so be it, I think human life is worth more than material wealth and, by most recent accounts, the Great Depression didn't kill even a fraction of what this beast is capable of. A collapse of the health system simply cannot be allowed to happen, we're looking at tens of millions of unnecessary deaths if you factor in collateral hospitalizations, and it's not even just that to ponder - how many of our doctors aren't white now and what kind of choices are they going to make when it comes to who gets treatment? - doctors in Italy aren't operating by "first come, first serve" anymore.

    If we had responsible elites, it wouldn't have come to this - we would have refused entry to all persons from infected areas, we could have locked down our borders and isolated those most at risk to begin with, we could have done extensive testing and contact tracing of any sporadic outbreaks like South Korea. We could have been prepared for this, it isn't like this was the product of unforeseen variables - scientists have been sounding the alarm bells on coronaviruses for years now and we've had two trial runs already of severe versions - SARS and MERS, simulations and training exercises are run and have been run for this very situation. This is criminal negligence.

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    The problem with "the hammer" is that it works for now. It will not remove the virus completely, it will only reset the clock. And then, in two months or so, you will have to repeat the procedure. And then again, and again, and again until we have a working vaccine in 18 months or so. In October 2021 or so.

    I don't know if that is the best option. But, and this is important: it will at least buy us time to decide what to do in a rational manner.

    I also found this interesting reference on the Net:
    According to my quick reading of the Life and death during the Great Depression by José A. Tapia Granadosa and Ana V. Diez Roux, the only noticeable increase of mortality was suicide, with a noticeable decline of mortality in every other category.
    https://history.stackexchange.com/qu...eat-depression

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    I think our President Trump needs to sign an immediate Executive Order suspending all debt, nullify all debt made during this shut down, and allow all of us to live off of Credit Cards, so that we can stay home for a month if needed.

    But I wouldn't be surprised if the Powers that be will use this crisis to financially rape us, and then blame Trump for all the misery.

    I dont know what the treatment will end up being, but i dont think a vaccine will be the answer; Vaccines tend to not work well against the regular flu.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neophyte View Post
    The problem with "the hammer" is that it works for now. It will not remove the virus completely, it will only reset the clock. And then, in two months or so, you will have to repeat the procedure. And then again, and again, and again until we have a working vaccine in 18 months or so. In October 2021 or so.
    I think if one could manage to emulate the success of South-Korea in containing the spread, and facilitate a decline in active cases, it might be possible to hold the situation under control until a vaccine is available, simply be performing strict border controls. Only citizens can get in (and only travel abroad if highly necessary), and those citizens who've been outside of the country will be forced to stay in quarantine for 14 days upon arrival.

    By the looks of it, if South-Korea keeps up their trajectory of decline in active cases, by following the current measures (which doesn't even include a general curfew, as far as I've understood), they'll be more or less virus-free in 2 months' time. After that is achieved, they could start easing up on most of their measures, and just be very vigilant about who and what gets taken into the country. I don't see a lot of damage to the national economy being done in that case.

    Surely, countries with economies which are highly dependent on tourism will undoubtably suffer. At least if they have nothing else going on for them. But I think most Western countries would manage just fine in redirecting their profit-making to other sectors. It might even lead to a lot of manufacturing jobs coming back to the West, which could prove to be highly beneficial for us in both the short- and the long-run.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jonaby View Post
    I think our President Trump needs to sign an immediate Executive Order suspending all debt, nullify all debt made during this shut down, and allow all of us to live off of Credit Cards, so that we can stay home for a month if needed.
    Abolish all debt? Now, what do you recon that would do to granma's savings? And who in their right mind would accept your credit card if all debt were to be abolished? Instead, they would insist on some nice gold coins to give you that TP.

    I think that you just failed both Economics 101 and Accounting 101 at once.

    You see, all savings, apart from the gold doubloons buried in the back yard (but they really do not do anything for the economy by lying there), end up as the debt of someone else. Wipe out the debt, and you wipe out the savings. And what will granma live from then?

    Also, one reason that we have so much debt is that the baby boomers have been saving in the past few years, saving for their retirements. That is the main reason for the low interest rates we have been seeing. Those savings end up as the debt of the GenX-ers and Milennials and so on. Now that the boomers are retiring, they will wanting their money back. That fancy lifestyle is not going to pay for itself. But you will. Cost of capital will now go up. Starting a business (i.e. finding seed capital) will now be harder, houses and apartments will fall in price as interest rates go up (leaving many indebted homeowners high and dry, houses will be as worthless as they are expensive, and moving is not an option since loans would have to be paid of with non-existent and non-forthcoming cash). But college tuition (at least in the USA) will go down since banks will be less inclined to finance a useless degree, and will put a higher interest on the useful ones. The credit card industry (based on freely available capital) will shrink.

    Because now the last boomers will retire. Then they will stop earning money that they then invest in your debts. And you will have to start paying back.

    Now, if granny was to die from Covid-19, all of that would just solve itself. Like magic. The show would go on. And you would never have too feel bad about it.

    So. What do you think that our elected politicians are thinking about right now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neophyte View Post

    I think that you just failed both Economics 101 and Accounting 101 at once.
    I think you just failed English 101. I said suspend, nullify for a set period of time. Not "abolish."

    If letting people live off of credit cards with 0% interest for a month is unreasonable, then we still have the option of just shutting down the entire economy and handing out bags of rice. Yeah, that could work.

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    I agree with you, Neophyte. We are probably delaying the inevitable since people will travel worldwide again and resume business as usual in dense public areas. Many people who have severe health problems or even poorer health are more at risk; the oldest-old seniors have always been at higher risk for fatalities from the common flu or pneumonia. I think this virus can linger like many other viruses since we lack "cures" or better treatments for viral infections. Bacterial infections are easier to treat.

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