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Thread: Coronavirus/COVID-19: Global Terror

  1. #81
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    The virus is detected in 24 of 54 African countries now. 250 sick and 7 dead that we know of. Health services are very poor many places so the real numbers might be much higher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ęmeric View Post
    Those who are dying are already in poor health. They have diabetes &/or hypertension. They tend to be old, very old. Most people are more likely to die from the flu then covid-19.
    I don't know if mortality rates can be fully trusted yet, at this point, as a lot of infected people aren't tested, and there's still a lot of infected patients yet to have an outcome (median time of onset to death is around two weeks). But it does seem to be a lot more fatal than the common flu.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ęmeric View Post
    Like other corona (flu) viruses covid-19 will likely go away as the weather warms up.
    Only to come back the next year, without people developing an immunity to it? Let's hope not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ęmeric View Post
    It would make more sense to isolate those who are at risk from the rest of the populace then canceling major sporting events and shutting down tourist attractions.
    I suppose it depends on how drawn out this epidemic turns out to be. If it's going to be just yet another virus that's cycling through the population every odd year, then sure, you can't really shut down society every time a recurring outbreak comes around. But in the starting phase, it makes sense to try to kill off the virus in its tracks, in hopes that it can be completely gotten rid off. Young people, who either have no symptoms at all, or only very mild ones, are probably the ones who spread it around the most.

    Judging by the testing done in South-Korea, which has done the most tests per capita so far, and doesn't only test people suspected of carrying the virus due to displaying symptoms, it appears that there vast majority of carriers are under 60 years old. Unlike Italy, who primarily are testing those already displaying symptoms of the coronavirus.

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    As possible explanation as to why, for example, Germany have a lower fatality rate than Italy:

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    Country; fatality rate (current deaths per total cases); hospital beds per 100.000 inhabitants:

    Italy: 6.81% (318)
    Spain: 3.75% (297)
    Japan: 2.94% (1305)
    France: 2.02% (598)
    Netherlands: 1.76% (332)
    Switzerland: 0.63% (453)
    Norway: 0.24% (360)
    Denmark: 0.23% (261)
    South Korea: 0.91% (1227)
    Sweden: 0.19% (222)
    Germany: 0.18% (800)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._hospital_beds

    Bear in mind that the fatality rate in countries like Japan and South Korea, where the transmission rate has drastically decreased in recent weeks, are likely much closer to the final numbers. While in the other countries, they are still only starting to experience fatal outcomes, due to the duration of onset of symptoms to death being around two weeks.
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  6. #84
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    14-day coronavirus survival guide should include these items for the average person

    Many shoppers are throwing extra cans of food in their grocery carts as coronavirus spreads around the globe in case they must stay home for an extended period of time or food shortages hit.

    Google searches for the term "prepping" were the highest they've ever been in the U.S. during the last week of February, something that may have to do with the virus.

    But how much food does one person need to last for 14 days, the isolation period recommended for someone who may have the virus?

    Texas resident and economic analyst Jesse Colombo has been stockpiling supplies since the 2008 financial crisis and estimates he has enough food to last for years.

    "Most people underestimate how much [food] they'd really need," Colombo told FOX Business. "It frustrates me when people say they want to prep and just buy an extra bag of rice."

    Colombo started prepping by stockpiling rice and beans and today has diversified to freeze-dried foods and canned meats.

    "SPAM and Vienna sausages last a very long time," Colombo said. "The idea is they last indefinitely, and there are very few other fat sources that have as long of a shelf life. ... You need fats in your diet."

    The average man under 50 should consume at least 2,200 to 2,400 calories a day, according to WebMD. Since SPAM is 180 calories per serving, and contains 6 servings per can, eating SPAM at every meal means 7 cans could last a grown man for two weeks if supplemented with rice or beans.

    That calorie requirement also breaks down to eating roughly 11 cans of Campbell's Homestyle Chicken Noodle Soup a day. That adds up to 154 cans of soup for two weeks.


    But if SPAM and canned soup isn't your style, there are 14-day food supply kits geared toward survivalists and campers. Colombo is partial to Mountain House's two-week emergency food supply. The company says the product, which will set you back $328.99, is sold out amid "increased demand."

    The meals, which include beef stroganoff and breakfast skillet packs, have a shelf life of 30 years. It takes 60 cups of water to rehydrate all the packs. The kit is formulated to provide 1,436 daily calories.

    A 14-day period is short enough that fresh food like eggs and cheese can last for the entire time, but Colombo has ensured he has enough food to last him much longer than that. He says he began sounding the alarm about the impending 2008 financial crisis years ahead and says he views coronavirus as a major trigger for another economic crash.

    Colombo said he thinks of prepping as an "insurance policy."

    "You don't have to be preparing for any doomsday event," Colombo said. "It's a philosophy of being self-reliant."
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...-what-you-need

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    AEmeric,
    You have the right attitude on this subject.
    Thousands die each year during the flu season.
    What is the difference now? Everything about this latest virus has been politicized.
    We have too many "talking heads" on the news and social medias fueling the crisis.
    I'm almost 83and don't worry about anything, my wife feels the same.
    We put our lives in God's hand.

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    It's killing our business and thus taking everything from us. I am very worried. Not about the virus, but what the measures taken will lead to. I see myself losing everything I own.
    Lķk börn leika best.

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  11. #87
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    Will coronavirus cause a global recession? We still don’t know.

    How deep or lasting the economic impact will be depends on the coronavirus’s spread, and how governments manage the outbreak.

    Well, that was bad. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,000 points on Monday, over growing fears about the novel coronavirus outbreak and oil prices. Markets in Europe and Asia also tumbled, in one of the worst weeks for stocks since the 2008 financial crisis.

    This is just the latest grim economic news. The spread of Covid-19, as the disease is formally known, is unsettling supply chains, sapping sales of some products, throwing travel into chaos, freaking out the stock markets, and intensifying fears of a global recession.

    There’s still so much we don’t know about the coronavirus, which makes the potential economic fallout extremely uncertain, for both China and the rest of the world. It is also difficult to completely isolate one factor — in this case, a virus outbreak — from everything else happening in the world that can rattle the markets or strain economies.

    So how deep, lasting, or widespread any economic fallout will be is hard to predict. But it’s clear from how wildly markets are reacting, and from the responses of governments — just last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates — that the world is bracing for a potential coronavirus-linked downturn. (Vox’s Matt Yglesias explains here what governments can do about it.)

    China makes up a much larger share of the world economy than it did in 2003, when SARS, another illness caused by a type of coronavirus, broke out. Today, companies like Apple and Nike and other manufacturers and companies around the world are already admitting they’re feeling the negative effects of the virus.

    So too are industries tied to travel and tourism. Airlines, cruise lines, hotels; they all take a hit during outbreaks due to travel bans and warnings, and general fears — real or hyped — about contagion.

    “It’s a potential threat to the global economy as it goes on longer,” Rohan Williamson, a professor of finance at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, told me last month. Supply chains can deal with disruptions for a few weeks, relying on supplies they have saved in house.

    But if it continues past that, he said, “It becomes a little more troubling.”

    The stock market sure is nervous. Here’s why.
    As of March 9, more than 100,000 cases of the coronavirus have been diagnosed worldwide. The virus has now spread to other parts of Asia, Europe, South America, and the United States. Nearly 4,000 people have died, most in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

    The fear that coronavirus will continue to spread and impact the global economy looks to be the main reason for the economic jitters.

    The coronavirus could prove to be deadlier than it currently is; the fatality rate is around 2 percent, but that could change. It could also prove to be the opposite, if more people are found to have mild cases. The coronavirus could become a pandemic; it could also taper off. Government intervention could dull the effects in populations; a bungled response could do the opposite.

    The stock market isn’t the economy, but it’s a signal that investors are worried about the economic outlook for the coming year because of the virus. Basically, they’re predicting that the coronavirus will continue to spread and cause more disruptions, depress demand, and maybe cause a global slowdown.

    This is especially true in industries that cater to travel and tourism, which are being hammered by the outbreak. This has been made worse by cancellations of major events — think the South by Southwest (SXSW) festival in Austin, usually a boon to the local economy — and fears that will be replicated in the US and around the world.

    The fight between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil production that sparked a dip in oil prices Monday has compounded fears of a broader slowdown.

    Right now, investors don’t know for sure that a global slowdown is going to happen — no one does — but they’re preparing as if it will. They’re reacting to fears now, but if good news starts breaking, it could swing in the other direction.

    Williamson said the stock market volatility is driven by this uncertainty. “As an investor you’re trying to say, here’s this virus. What’s going to be the reaction with the worst case, if things get really bad?” he said. “So your response is going to be ‘prices drop,’ because you’re going to say, ‘I don’t want to be the one holding the security if things go really bad [in] a few months. So I will sell it right now.”

    Investors are preparing for the worst, and some companies and analysts have changed their forecasts for earnings this year. For example, Goldman Sachs revised its earnings growth estimates to zero for US companies.

    “US companies will generate no earnings growth in 2020,” Goldman Sachs’s chief US equity strategist, David Kostin, said in a note to clients in February. “We have updated our earnings model to incorporate the likelihood that the virus becomes widespread.”

    Businesses are already taking a hit, but how bad it gets will depend on how long this lasts
    Apple is one of those companies that have revised down their projections for this quarter. Nike, too, is expected to have a grim quarter.

    Companies like Nike and Apple also get a bit of a double whammy. “These are two companies that manufacture a significant amount of their products in China, but they also sell a significant amount of products to China,” Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, told me.

    Factories in China were already operating with smaller staffs or delays because of the Lunar New Year. Then came the coronavirus emergency, which saw many factories shuttered. Even as some factories in unaffected areas of the country try to restart production, travel restrictions made it difficult for people to get to work. And because everything is happening so slowly, it is going to take time for these manufacturers to scale back up.

    “Even if you came back to the factory, you have to spend 14 days in quarantine. We have some longtime workers that haven’t even returned,” a worker in a Chinese factory told NPR earlier this month.

    Then there is the retail side. Government-mandated lockdowns in several cities in China have kept people off the streets — and therefore out of shops, restaurants, hair salons, theaters, and so on.

    Many simply closed. Apple closed its stores and corporate headquarters and though has now reopened about half its stores again by the end of February. Starbucks shut down 2,000 stores in China, about half of its total locations, though it too has started to resume operations by the end of last month.

    Pretty much all businesses that rely on China as part of their supply chains or have big retail presences within the country face similar challenges.

    Luxury fashion brands in particular, which depend heavily on Chinese buyers, are taking a hit. A report from the investment management firm Bernstein found that the coronavirus could end up costing the luxury market as much as $43 billion in sales in 2020, Business Insider reports.

    And while big-name brands get the attention, smaller manufacturers might be even less resilient to the shock. For instance, sellers on Amazon, who often rely on cheap Chinese products, are getting pummeled, with dwindling stock to sell.

    “I don’t think the Amazon platform has seen such a massive amount of inventory problems as we are about to see,” Patrick Maioho, who sells kitchen products on Amazon and advises on manufacturing in China, told the Wall Street Journal in February.

    Then there are the airlines, which some experts say could lose as much as $100 billion, and all the other businesses that rely on tourism: hotels, casinos, cruises, tour companies, and more. Chinese tourists are some of the world’s biggest spenders, and travel restrictions, quarantines, and closed borders are making tourism increasingly difficult, to say nothing of visitors to China.

    And as the virus spreads, this problem is being replicated elsewhere: Italy, for example, placed a travel ban across its country on Monday, barring all travel that isn’t essential for work or emergencies. Its tourism industry is expected to be hit, hard.

    All this means that many industries will likely have a bad start to 2020. But although it may not be a satisfying answer, how bad it will be depends on how long — and how far — the coronavirus continues to spread.

    Right now, much of the economic pain is centered in China, and on companies that rely on China for parts or products. But as cases tick up in Europe and the United States start to balloon, that pain will be spread around.

    “I think we should expect that every country will see cases, and the duration of infection could go on for months — I don’t think we have an end period, necessarily,” Jennifer Nuzzo, an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me last month.

    So is this going to cause a global recession?
    Everyone wants to know if the new coronavirus will cause a global recession. The short answer is that it definitely could. Here again, though, whether it will — and if it does happen, how bad it might be — depends on when the coronavirus emergency is resolved.

    A recession is generally defined as two back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth, usually measured by gross domestic product (GDP) — that is, the total value of final goods and services produced within a certain period (in this case, usually a quarter of a year).

    Experts I spoke to said that China’s GDP will probably suffer pretty badly this first quarter, and since it makes up about 17 percent of the global economy, that’s not great news. China’s estimated GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020 was about 6 percent.

    “The vast majority of all economists and others looking at China — and what we know about the virus so far — are expecting, best-case scenario for Q1 in China, zero. Many are expecting negative GDP in Q1, so that right there is going to hurt global GDP to the extent China’s that big,” Frederick said.

    What happens in China will have ripple effects outward to the rest of the world. The Eurozone countries are definitely bracing, as its GDP only grew 0.1 percent at the end of last year, so any shock could likely push it toward negative growth.

    The US does have one of the world’s strongest economies right now, so it’s a bit more protected. The US’s GDP grew 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and experts say it might do a bit worse at the start of 2020 than it did last quarter, but is unlikely to see negative growth, at least for now.

    Of course, the big question is how long does this coronavirus outbreak go on? If the coronavirus isn’t contained and these trends continue, the likelihood of a global recession increases. It’s also important to remember that the coronavirus is just one factor, which might exacerbate other strains on the global economy, like trade wars.

    “As it gets more and more severe and infects more and more people, the impacts become greater and greater, and the countries that are teetering on recession already anyway will be right there,” Williamson said.

    Experts I spoke to cautioned that if governments respond appropriately and this outbreak is blunted, the worst-case scenario will probably be avoided. That doesn’t mean it will be averted equally around the world, or even in all industries or labor forces, of course. But when it comes to the global economy, the theme for now is “don’t panic.”

    This is better news for companies like Apple that make durable goods, but could be bad news for services like restaurants or cruises or hotels, which will have a harder time making up the lost revenue, Frederick, the vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, told me.

    He explained that if you wanted to, say, buy an iPhone or a washing machine or a car but weren’t able to because of a supply shortage, or a store closing, you might be okay waiting to buy that product later once it’s available again — provided that the economic shock is temporary enough that you still have a job and money to spend.

    But if you normally go to a coffee shop every day or if you hit the casino every weekend, and now you can’t because of the coronavirus, once things get back to normal, you’re not all of a sudden going to make multiple trips or visits to make up for that.

    Even if the coronavirus doesn’t cause a recession, it could transform the global economy in subtler ways
    The coronavirus outbreak has definitely exposed vulnerabilities for companies, especially those that rely heavily on China for their supply chains and products. This may force companies to cut some of their dependence on China, something that already started to happen because of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

    That almost certainly doesn’t mean abandoning China altogether, but rather distributing or diversifying supply chains to better protect against major crises that dramatically impact one country or one region more than others.

    That also does not necessarily mean more manufacturing will come back to the United States, as Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross recently claimed, but it means companies will likely be looking elsewhere.

    And even for companies that aren’t really dependent on China, it’s still a good reminder that no one knows when or where the next pandemic or crisis might happen. But one thing is certain: There will be another one at some point. So preparing now is a good idea.
    https://www.vox.com/2020/2/28/211534...market-economy

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    I saw that Amazon is out of hand sanitizer and a few other disinfectant/hygiene products. In Berlin there are 200+ cases. 5.000+ in the whole of Germany. Borders are closed with France, Switzerland and Austria. Meetings or events with 50+ people are forbidden, for the rest they have to keep a list with name and address. Pubs and similar businesses have been closed, same with cinemas, theaters, museums, gyms and swimming pools. Some restaurants allowed to stay open but have to keep a space of 1.5 m between tables. Schools, kindergartens closed. Hospitals don't allow visits for adult patient anymore. The positive thing about it is that borders begin to close in Europe and outside of Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bärin View Post
    I saw that Amazon is out of hand sanitizer and a few other disinfectant/hygiene products.
    Same here. It’s now difficult to find pasta and rice as well. Only a few boxes of unhealthy refined Barilla pasta remained where I went shopping yesterday... Cases have almost doubled since yesterday and are over 2200 now. Switzerland is now 2nd in the world for cases per capita. Lots of very-well connected people living in a small area doesn’t help. Time to retreat into the mountains...

    And it’s amazing they just close the borders now when it’s too late. Our “nationalist” party proposed to close the border 3 weeks ago after the first case in Italy but was ridiculed as being too “extreme”. Now instead of being proactive and take courageous, necessary even if unpopular decisions (at the beginning) and control the situation, we now have to endure the whole situation that already seems out of control in the Italian-speaking part of the country.

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    Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection
    Published: March 12, 2020

    As of March 1, 2020, 79 968 patients in China and 7169 outside of China had tested positive for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).1 Among Chinese patients, 2873 deaths had occurred, equivalent to a mortality rate of 3·6% (95% CI 3·5–3·7), while 104 deaths from COVID-19 had been reported outside of China (1·5% [1·2–1·7]). However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died. Notably, the full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not be tested and will not be identified. Such cases therefore cannot be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent COVID-19 cases.

    The maximum incubation period is assumed to be up to 14 days, whereas the median time from onset of symptoms to intensive care unit (ICU) admission is around 10 days. Recently, WHO reported that the time between symptom onset and death ranged from about 2 weeks to 8 weeks.

    We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China. Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.


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