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Thread: 2019 Austrian Legislative Election

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blod og Jord View Post
    I actually found it a bit strange that the Ibiza corruption scandal was published just a little before the EU elections earlier this year. I guess that shows how much these elections can be swayed and meddled with, despite the apparent "democratic" process...
    That's exactly what it was like. Plus some time ago, when there was another corruption issue involving the socialists (some Jewish campaign manager who laundered money in Israel), not as much attention was paid to the issue. At least not in the German and international press.

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  3. #12
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    The media discusses a defeat of the "far right", possibly with repercussions throughout the rest of Europe. Does this mean that there will be no more right-wing government? Who do you think the VP will pick as a coalition partner? Also aren't the VP a conservative party, at least in name? Will they reject the FP as an extreme right party?

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  5. #13
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    The top two projections are VP - FP and VP - Greens. There are other possible combinations, but less likely.

    The VP with their "whizz-kid" Kurz aren't really that conservative, at least not any longer. Nowadays they're tilting more and more to the left and are quite politically correct, much like the CSU/CDU in Germany. While they don't openly fetishize multicultural agendas as much as the leftists do, and might be willing to adopt special rules on immigration (e.g. they're pro integration and welcome non-European immigration as long as the foreigners drop the Burqas, "embrace democracy" and learn German), they've gradually renounced their traditional Christian values and don't seem to have much of a value corset today. They've adopted the values of the '68 movement, but weren't as overt about it as others. It was a gradual, subtle change which they continue to this day so that people don't notice and they can keep their power and privileges. They're too liberal on matters they should be more traditional about (family, social values, sexuality) and too authoritarian on matters they should be more liberal about (they're often the ones behind ban and censorship initiatives). Still it's they who are the power holders (the courts and state prosecution, the economy, etc.) and most people will vote for them because they're neither too right nor too left.

    Word has it that they might make a coalition with the Greens this time around (and potentially the NEOS, a small liberal party, but the Greens' result might just be enough ), which would probably be even worse than the "traditional" one with the Socialists and a nasty surprise considering the Greens actually lost their seats in the previous election (I remember it was quite the celebration for some people). If such an alliance materializes, it will probably push the police state even further, not to mention that the Greens are notorious for their extreme leftist (they're the authors of the super-antifa/persecution of everyone non-leftist site, stopptdierechten, which is financed by government money and allegedly costs 20.000 EUR/month to run), super-feminist/super-LGBTQ+ agenda and their support for uncontrolled immigration and the abolition of borders. As they say, Greens are in reality watermelons (green on the outside, red on the inside). Their sister party in Germany is responsible for "wisdoms" such as "Germans as a people do not exist" (in their mind it's a "nazi concept"). The Greens actually used to advocate for the legalization of pedophilia and children's "sexual liberation". Such people were part of the Greens from its very founding, along with feminists, pacifists, homosexuals and opponents of nuclear energy. They motivated it as a "way to prevent authoritarianism and nazism", even a "very German" phenomenon in their minds. Other measures supported by the Greens would be extending the right to vote at the local level to third country (non-EU) nationals, anti-racism initiatives and all sort of acknowledgment and volunteering for refugees. So it should be interesting to see if such a coalition materializes whether the VP will appease them when it comes to matters such as LGBTQ, on which the VP used to be more conservative (for example they used to be against same-sex marriage, but the Greens introduced a bill in Parliament that would have legalized it), or immigration, which the VP isn't as liberal about as the Greens, but might agree on for monetary reasons. While the VP never saw left parties like the Greens as a direct threat (it was unlikely they'd ever get 50%+ support), they still need to keep them around so that they can be unleashed against the right when necessary.

    It's probably climate matters that have pushed the Greens up so many percentages. Back in the 2017, the top voter concern was immigration and the European refugee crisis, nowadays it seems to have shifted towards climate change (thanks to the Greta phenomenon, people started to panic that we are approaching some irreversible cataclysm and need to clear their conscience). Voting for green parties is particularly popular among the youth, as well as the wealthier classes and urban elites (politicians, artists, socialites, celebrities). Paradoxically, it's usually those who leave the biggest carbon footprint with their private jets and collections of luxury cars and boats. The VP could jump onto the pro-climate movement by entering into a coalition with the Greens, strengthening the country's climate ambitions. Just recently, parliament parties have declared a climate emergency, committing themselves to give the climate crisis and its consequences top priority. That said, immigration is still an important matter in many people's minds (according to a survey, 40% of Austrians regard immigration as one of the two "most important issues facing the EU at the moment") and the Greens are among the most liberal about it (their stance is that "you can't solve environmental problems within national borders"). In Germany, at least some politicians called them out for their inflammatory statements where they celebrated the decline of the German ethnicity (see "I Accuse" Green Party of "Genocide of the German People"). In Austria the politicians keep quiet.

    The FP suffered some losses due to the Ibiza scandal, but that was to be expected (also yes it was likely a Kompromat, the identity of that oligarch niece had been questioned and the story was 2 years old). Leftists are certainly getting a kick out of it, celebrating how the "far right's rise is faltering in Europe" (this doesn't mean that they will stop feeding the media melodramatic stories about the increase in "xenophobia" and the like though, the fear and guilt must be kept alive). Either way, it's disappointing to see how corruption still reigns among politicians and their aim is to fill as much of their wallet as possible while in office no matter the cost, even if this means compromising your party/colleagues/nation. When right-wing politicians get caught up in such scandals, it is of course much worse due to double standards and hypocrisy. Compare for example with the Silberstein affair from 2 years ago, for which the SP got away with a mere slap on the wrist, their voters having closed their eyes on the corruption motivated by the goal of stomping out the right-wingers. Silberstein, who was accused of money laundering in Israel, was alleged to have run some dirt bucket campaign websites muddying the reputation of Kurz/the VP which were originally thought to be "antisemitic and xenophobic conspiracy theory material" pushed by "far-right activists" (the websites accused Kurz of secretly paving the way for a new wave of immigration from Islamic countries, and of being part of George Soros's dubious political circle). On the contrary, back then the SP even gained some of the Green votes simply because everybody on the left was obsessed with preventing a right-wing government from materializing (Hofer's support during the 2016 presidential election had freaked them out). 30 years ago, the state funded the "social reformer" Otto Mhl who sought the dissolution of the traditional family, privacy and private property and their replacement with an authoritarian, far-left communal lifestyle. The social experiment involved children, who were abused and molested in the name of sexual liberation. After the criminal acts could no longer be concealed despite all cover-up attempts and political influences, Mhl was convicted however his former Socialist government sponsors remained unscathed and now collect five-figure pensions. Taking the moral high-ground therefore isn't really the most befitting.

    Anyway, maybe the VP might want to give a coalition with the Freedom Party another chance, but they'd have to face a lot of criticism for it and have everything that went wrong with the previous govt thrown in their face again and again. And if it flops once more, it might really be the end o it. Then again, maybe a FP - VP coalition isn't the most ideal option. Whenever the FP makes govt as part of a coalition, they actually tend to compromise on many issues and aim at appeasing the mainstream. It was disappointing for example that the FP supported the tightening of the Prohibition Act during the late 90s. Also when it came to matters such as immigration, ironically during that period more foreigners were brought into the country than before, under the SP - VP coalition. Currently, there is another pressing matter on which the FP will most likely have to compromise if they want to enter a coalition: banning the Identitarian Movement. It's unlikely that the FP will be able to enter a coalition if they are not on the same page with the FP on this. FP - VP governments have a history of collapsing or going out in scandal though, which some people might see a sign of instability. Kurz was accused by many to have a made a mistake with his previous coalition and a lot of people are expecting for him to correct it.

    Another possibility is the "grand"/"traditional" SP - VP coalition, which would be technically possible since they have enough percentages. However it's become increasingly unpopular, a symbol of stagnation and infighting. They've been at each other's throats during the last election and SP politicians look down on Kurz for having formed a coalition with an "extreme right" party. In a recent television debate, the SP headswoman said that Kurz was still young and "therefore capable of learning from his mistakes", something which might both encourage or offend Kurz. Eventhough the Socialists still managed to score 2nd place, their support has dramatically declined. They managed to plummet to a historic low. Back in the day, the socialists used to be more popular as long as they were still pro-people (blue collar, intellectual values), nowadays they've also shifted towards this pro-LGBTQ/"anything goes" politics. Yet still a lot of the elderly will vote for socialists, who keep them in a paranoid state about other parties taking away their pensions and social aid.

    Kurz has also warned that other parties could form a coalition excluding the VP. But how likely is it that the Socialists will align with the Freedom Party? Probably not. Maybe the leftist parties would have considered making an alliance among themselves if they did better, but as it looks now, it wouldn't be enough to form a majority.

    Anyway while it doesn't look that bright at first sight, maybe it needs to get worse before it can get better. Not everyone sees right through leftist agendas, particularly when they are disguised as tenets of democracy. It might take pushing these multicultural and PC standards to comical extents before people realize their true repercussions. Some people have actually thought that the previous government coalition with the pseudo-conservatives of the VP was a mistake on behalf of the FP in a greed to make government asap, instead of capitalizing on their gains and popularity a little longer until they could gain a majority. Their results during the latest years showed some steady increase, but in the meantime they could also work on their influence as an opposition party, where their voice could be just as strong if not even stronger. After all, many of the party's supporters see themselves in opposition to the prevailing political system run by SP and VP elites, which they regard as dedicated to keeping them out of power by any means necessary. Being part of the opposition, they could also find it easier to take a stand and attempt to block moves such as banning the Identitarians. But since Kickl is in the minority opposing such moves, this will probably not happen. Inviting the FP into another coalition might actually be geared towards "taming" and compromising on such directions and singling out and ostracizing those who support them (as the saying goes, "keep your friends close and your enemies closer") rather than pushing them on to the opposition benches where they could risk to become louder and stronger.

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  7. #14
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    Another option is that the VP will make a minority government with the support of the Greens or Socialists. But that would be extremely unstable and could lead to new elections as soon as the other party would withdraw their support.

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    Months of negotiations ahead

    It's "difficult to tell" who Kurz will ultimately choose, Luther said, but he thinks that the Greens option is "stronger": "Office allows for compromise."

    With his party as much as 15% ahead of all others, there is the risk that Kurz feels he can ask "too much" of his coalition partner, Brocza said.

    "Out of these results, he is indisputably the boss", he said, but Kurz will have to navigate the talks without "acting like he's strong enough to take too much away from them", at the risk of convincing neither.

    "There will be a lot of discussion and drama in the next weeks", Brocza noted. As postal votes are not all counted yet, the definitive results will not be known until next week, he said. Parties will hold internal talks before the real discussions begin in the next weeks.

    Then, "if negotiations go fast", the next government may be known by Christmas. Otherwise, he said, "it will be in the New Year," Brocza concluded, with a laugh: "It takes the time it takes!"
    https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/29/...lition-partner

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