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Thread: Race and the Fertility Paradox

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    Race and the Fertility Paradox

    It is well known that for a population to reproduce itself from one generation to the next, each woman must have, on average, 2.1 children, or 2,100 children per 1000 women. For this to happen, two things are necessary: women must not only be healthy and fertile, they must also be “willing” to have children. Societies differ greatly in both of these respects. At one extreme are the very healthy peoples of Europe and North Asia who are biologically capable of having very large families, but who are failing even to reproduce themselves. At the other are Sub-Saharan African populations that carry a range of diseases — some of which directly affect reproductive health — but who still manage to have many children.

    Societies with the best medical facilities and the lowest mother and infant mortality have the fewest births. That is to say, the safest, healthiest places for mothers have the fewest children. Why is this?

    One factor is division of labor by sex. Societies with traditional sex roles — women raise children and run the house; men are breadwinners — have many children. When both sexes work, women tend to have just one child. As a society moves from peasant farming towards manufacturing and services, it needs more paid labor, which means more people need schooling. Women get more education, enter the work force, and even participate in politics. Birth rates then plunge, but not even the best demographers thought they would plummet past replacement levels.

    Hong Kong (0.91) and Singapore (1.04) have two of the lowest birth rates on earth; neither has even half of the required 2.1 children. The two lowest in Europe, Lithuania (1.17) and the Czech Republic (1.18) are just over half. Even with very low death rates, any society operating below replacement value will shrink. By contrast, the two highest fertility rates in the world are in some of the poorest countries in Africa: Somalia (6.91) and Niger (6.93).

    European women, with an average lifetime fertility of 1.55 children each, are about 500 children per 1,000 women short of replacing themselves, which means severe shrinkage is just over the horizon. People are only now beginning to discuss this shrinkage, but there is no agreement on how to stop the West from evaporating.

    Women in the 36 countries in black Africa average more than five children each, or more than twice the number needed for replacement. Even with very short life expectancies, these populations will grow. In the swathe of 25 Moslem countries that begins at Mauritania and sweeps east to Pakistan, women average 4.08 children, which means Moslems are in latent demographic competition with blacks. Differences in reproductive health — the prevalence of diseases that directly affect a woman’s fertility — may affect the outcome of this competition.

    HIV-infection rates for women are a good indicator of reproductive health. The World Health Organization and UNAIDS have spent a lot of money tracking these numbers all around the world, and their figures are probably good estimates. Men can infect each other by homosexual contact, but women do not infect each other. Very few women take intravenous drugs, so virtually the only way they get the disease is from sex with men. Therefore, if a woman has the virus, it suggests many sex partners for herself, the man, or both. Large numbers of sex partners mean a high likelihood of other sexually transmitted diseases.

    Unlike HIV/AIDS, other STDs tend not to be lethal, but they quickly raise sterility rates, and can affect the health and even mortality of babies. The number of women who are HIV-positive is a useful predictor of other STDs, and therefore a good barometer of reproductive health.

    The world average female HIV infection rate is 1.4 percent, but there is great variation from country to country. At one extreme are Zimbabwe (14.3 percent) and Botswana (21.5 percent) and at the other are Japan (0.02 percent), Mongolia (0.04 percent), and Turkey (0.01 percent). To make the most extreme comparison, Botswanan women are 2,150 times more likely than Turkish women to be infected. They are probably that much more likely also to have other STDs that affect fertility.

    A regional comparison shows that the infection rate for European women is less than 0.1 percent, that for Moslems is less than 0.3 percent, and the average rate for black Africa is 5.5 percent. The European and Moslem rates are not statistically different from each other, but both are significantly lower than the African rate. (It is surprising that Muslim societies, which are famous for sequestering women, should have essentially the same female infection rates as Europe. To the extent that infection rates really do measure the number of sex partners, Muslims must have many more partners than we are led to believe.)

    There are likewise big regional differences in infant mortality: 94.7 per 1,000 live births in Sub-Saharan Africa, 52.9 in the Moslem swathe, and 10.2 in Europe. Much of this is explained by differences in medical standards, but part is explained by the health of the mothers. If all the mothers who had their babies in Africa had them in Europe, their infant mortality rate would drop, but not to the European level.

    Clearly, race is part of the equation, but it is not always easy to separate it from geography, economy, or social organization. Rates for blacks outside of Africa can be used to control for these factors. There are four Caribbean islands that are more than 80 percent black: Haiti, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Barbados. The average HIV-infection rate for women is 1.43 percent. This is more than four times the world average when Sub-Saharan Africa is removed.

    The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta, Georgia, tracks American AIDS-infection rates by race and sex. It reports that Black women are 25 times more likely than whites and 31 times more likely than Asians to be infected. Similar differences are likely to be found in multiracial societies like Canada, Britain or France. Race therefore seems to have an independent effect on AIDS rates.

    We have witnessed a substantial racial shift in reproduction. In white (and some Asian) countries, women work in what have become wealthy, industrial societies. Women are reproductively healthy and have excellent medical care, but are unwilling to have enough babies to keep their societies going. African women have the worst reproductive health and miserable hospitals, but have the most babies. Moslem countries are somewhere in between. In the long-run, Moslem countries — where high rates of child-bearing are combined with what appears to be quite good reproductive health — would seem to have the reproductive advantage.
    https://www.amren.com/news/2018/11/r...y-birth-rates/

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    European women, with an average lifetime fertility of 1.55 children each, are about 500 children per 1,000 women short of replacing themselves, which means severe shrinkage is just over the horizon. People are only now beginning to discuss this shrinkage, but there is no agreement on how to stop the West from evaporating.
    I am hoping this development is only temporary. In previous times, women were in a way forced by their life circumstances to have children, in order to have a family, which in turn would be her security against poverty and homelessness. These women may not all have felt the wish to be mothers in their bones, but simply went along due to extrinsic motivations, of either economic, social or religious nature.

    Nowadays, such motivations have fallen more or less completely by the way side, and they are instead dependent on their career and/or the government to serve as their security of welfare. The women who do have children, though, are the one's who have an ingrained wish for a family, and prioritize it over other perks like more personal freedom, more flexibility of life choices, and material wealth.

    If there's anything to the theory of biology being a vital source of a person's mentality, reason would tell us that the children of these willfully made mothers also will carry on this ingrained wish to establish a family of their own. At least to a great extent. And after a couple of generations of population decline, and the population segments of the willfully childless clearing themselves out of the gene pool, fertility rates would start to rise again.
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    We have always been about quality with our children, not quantity. The only race on this earth who ever was. We do not "breed." Obviously most couples having at least 2 or 3 children is good, but most people completely fail to understand the former of what I said. They are ignorant and just look at how other races/species "breed," and then try to compare. What is needed is for foreigners to be removed from our society completely. Aid to foreigners must also be stopped, as it is allowing them to overpopulate in the way which they do. Mother nature would have stopped it otherwise.

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    Whites don't breed well in captivity. Its that simple.

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    I don't think that there are much senses to think about this as a question like: which is right or wrong. That would not lead anywhere (being waist of time). I think we should look on this matters via which could help ... and then afterwards value are those actions possible or not.

    Two things:

    1,) Societies should create and guarantee environments & conditions .... which would make women want to have more kids.
    Only women can/will determinate what those could be. Sorry guys, not you.

    2.) Role and position of being mothers should be risen up.
    Nice speeches and small medals would not help on this.

    Both of those would mean => higher taxes and clear income transfers from working men and career women (no kids) to women who would stay at home.

    For todays women ... it is not the same issue if husband would earn 6000euros/month and wife nothing (as being house wife) versus situation that husband's salary would be just half of that (3000euros/month) as another 3000euros/month would be paid to his house wife (directly).

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    Somalia and Niger having the highest birth rates. Interesting trend. High IQ, low crime rate races have the lowest birth rates. Low IQ, high crime rate races have the highest birth rates.

    Although this theoretically wouldn't need to be an issue if the lesser races stayed in their own nations, well...we all know how that goes when White homogeneity gets in the way of world domination plans for Illuminati and (((friends))).

    So then what will happen from here, is more or less obvious for anyone who has paid attention to history. Either a blood bath or a Great White Migration. Given that feminism will sure as hell see to a natural increase in White procreation not happening anytime soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blusnayl View Post
    Somalia and Niger having the highest birth rates. Interesting trend. High IQ, low crime rate races have the lowest birth rates. Low IQ, high crime rate races have the highest birth rates.
    That's a outcome (Somalia, Niger etc.).

    I just can not help of wondering:
    * how many of those kids have been wanted/unwanted by their mothers?
    * how many of those children have been results of physical violence and rapes?
    * religion issues, child brides, polygamous.
    * no prevention available
    * children will work and help their parents to survive.

    Growth of Earth's population is serious problem and not something which should be adored. It would be very important to get birth rates down in Africa & Asia (= eliminate things listed above).




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    Quote Originally Posted by Finnish Swede View Post
    That's a outcome (Somalia, Niger etc.).

    I just can not help of wondering:
    * how many of those kids have been wanted/unwanted by their mothers?
    * how many of those children have been results of physical violence and rapes?
    * religion issues, child brides, polygamous.
    * no prevention available
    * children will work and help their parents to survive.

    Growth of Earth's population is serious problem and not something which should be adored. It would be very important to get birth rates down in Africa & Asia (= eliminate things listed above).




    .

    Do you know what these people are like? They are nothing like us. You might as well worry about baby rats or roaches.
    Most people think as they are trained to think, and most people make a majority.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Huginn ok Muninn View Post

    Do you know what these people are like? They are nothing like us. You might as well worry about baby rats or roaches.

    Oh, believe me ... Sweden (and Finland) have Somalians ....

    And nope, I'm not worry about them as such. I'm more worry about African elephants, rhinos, big cats etc. (via huntings)....

    What I meant above/earlier: I'm worry about Mother Earth. And all the time growing population...


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