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Thread: Brexit

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Brexit

    There's been a lot of anger the last few days over the government's plan to distribute pro-EU leaflets to every household in the country, which along with online advertising will cost 9m. Altogether the pro-EU campaigns will be allowed to spend about 26m pounds, while pro-Brexit only 11m.

    Conservative MPs have threatened to "grind Government to a halt" as a backlash began over David Cameron's plans to use £9million of taxpayers' money to send a pro-EU leaflet to every home in the UK.

    Eurosceptic MPs warned the Prime Minister that they will block Government legislation in Parliament, creating an unprecedented split in the Party.

    They also said the decision to send out the leaflet has made it “certain” that MPs will attempt to force a leadership challenge after the June 23 referendum, even if Mr Cameron’s Remain campaign wins the vote.

    It also emerged last night that the firm which printed the Government’s leaflet is owned by a German company given repeated hand-outs by the European Commission.
    read more http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...er-sparks-fur/

    The government justifies all this as giving people "information" - but it's not objective info, it's pro-EU propaganda. And if people really want it, finding information and the various sides' arguments is easier than ever before.

    If the referendum result is a close Remain win, as current polls suggest, millions of Leavers won't accept the result, saying it was practically rigged by the unfair allocation of spending.

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    Senior Member Thorbrand's Avatar
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    This is typical of Cameron's politics, where the outcome of the vote is considered a forgone conclusion and all efforts are being made to ensure it is so.

    I fear that we will end up remaining 'in', the fear-mongering has reached high levels in the media. As Markus Willinger (and many others from Mosley onwards) has stated, the post-war Europe should have been a unity of Fatherlands, striving together in a common market, defending Europe together but independent states, or else a real United Europe, where all it's citizens vote for a central leadership. What we have is for me anathema, a bureaucratic entity run by international market interests with a lost national sovereignty...

    I'll be in Germany on the day of the vote but I'll be voting by proxy.
    “unless they know, mystically, that beneath the concrete lies the earth which has nourished their race for a thousand years and ... that it is their own earth from which their blood is shed and renewed, then they are a lost people, and easy prey for those who have lacked roots for many centuries"
    A. K. Chesterton

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    I'm having a hard time caring about this referendum. Even if we leave, nothing will really change. We'll still have a parasitical ruling class in power, and their ideology will not deviate from the liberal internationalism shared by their friends in the European Union. Mass-immigration will continue unabated; the hate speech legislation will be unchanged; "equality and diversity" will still be the official ideology of the state. This is not a referendum for real change.

    Even so, I hope we do leave, for two reasons: it will be a symbolic victory for us, even if it yields no substantial change in practical terms, and it will deprive the government of a whipping boy to blame for its own errors. For instance, immigration! The media never stop focusing on the high inflow from within the EU, but non-EU immigration is even higher. They cannot blame the EU for that; it is a direct consequence of our own authorities' lax approach to border control. I would rather have the short-term problem of economic migration from Eastern Europe than the long-term problem of non-Europeans permanently settling in the UK. More than that, I doubt they would even impose serious travel restrictions on people from the EU. It wouldn't gel with their economic policies, and they have far more loyalty to their wealthy donors (who use immigration to undercut wages) than the electorate.

    If we leave, the net migration figures are highly unlikely to change for the better. Who, then, will they point the finger at? Seeing them exposed like that would bring me some joy.

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    Senior Member Forest_Dweller's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Widersinnig View Post
    I'm having a hard time caring about this referendum. Even if we leave, nothing will really change. We'll still have a parasitical ruling class in power, and their ideology will not deviate from the liberal internationalism shared by their friends in the European Union. Mass-immigration will continue unabated; the hate speech legislation will be unchanged; "equality and diversity" will still be the official ideology of the state. This is not a referendum for real change.

    Even so, I hope we do leave, for two reasons: it will be a symbolic victory for us, even if it yields no substantial change in practical terms, and it will deprive the government of a whipping boy to blame for its own errors. For instance, immigration! The media never stop focusing on the high inflow from within the EU, but non-EU immigration is even higher. They cannot blame the EU for that; it is a direct consequence of our own authorities' lax approach to border control. I would rather have the short-term problem of economic migration from Eastern Europe than the long-term problem of non-Europeans permanently settling in the UK. More than that, I doubt they would even impose serious travel restrictions on people from the EU. It wouldn't gel with their economic policies, and they have far more loyalty to their wealthy donors (who use immigration to undercut wages) than the electorate.

    If we leave, the net migration figures are highly unlikely to change for the better. Who, then, will they point the finger at? Seeing them exposed like that would bring me some joy.
    Yes, it's still worth voting for all these reasons.

    But I have the same fears that we'll stay, with the combination of people invested in the EU for business reasons, the cretinous unthinking plebs who will always vote to stay in, and the immigrants who will do the same. This combined with votes 'mysteriously' disappearing. We'd probably have to have an overwhelming majority to have any chance really, nevertheless I'm still going to vote.

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    German VP of the EU Parliament says Brexit concessions go too far.

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-e...t-concessions/

    The best arguments for Brexit come out of the mouths of Eurocrat politicians. It's no coincidence that the EU Parliament's workload has been unusually low before the referendum. It is said the EU is planning a tidal wave of new legislation after a Remain vote. And Juenker, Schultz, and the rest have been rather quite the last few months.

    The pathetic EU "deal" shows the EU is unreformable. I keep hearing from people who aknowledge - the EU isn't much good, but we have to stay in it to "change" Europe. It is clear the only change the EU is interested in is greater federalism, or "more Europe".

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    So the 'campaign' starts tonight..Both Tories and Labour frontmen are in the 'In' camp we get Obummer flying in next week to tell us to stay in.. So the Globalist, NWO 'Establishment' is getting into full swing. I'm pretty sure this has been f**king rigged from the start!

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Yet another dodgy government publication on the EU. Osborne wants low-information voters to memorise the headline numbers - £4,300 worse off outside the EU per household, 8p rise in income tax.

    What the media has failed to mention is the report relies upon a number of anti-Brexit assumptions. Forecasting from 14 years out is almost certain to be nonsense, anyway. But the headline figure comes from the assumption we will get a Canada-style trade deal. A big part of the £4,300 comes from tariffs on our

    Another absurd assumption is that 1) the EU will sign every Free Trade Agreement it is currently negotiating (the Indian one has been going for years and is nowhere near completion), 2) Britain will be excluded from existing EU FTAs, and 3) the UK signs no new FTAs. They forecast a big drop in trade because of this.

    That's the anatomy of a "Project Fear" scare story. Any model will come out with a negative outcome if you feed negative assumptions into it. This is what people hate about politics and politicians.

    Something else buried in the report - NET immigration up until 2030 will be3.2 million. I don't know what justification there is for thinking net migration will fall to "only" 180k - far more than the govt's promise of 10s of 1000s.

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Swedes would support leaving the EU after a Brexit:

    If Britain were to leave the European Union, would it survive? Britain is one of the least enthusiastic members of the EU, but other more globally-minded countries are tiring of the protectionism and insularity in Brussels. Reformers in Sweden are aghast at the prospect of Brexit, seeing Britain as their main ally in trying to fight off protectionism (a recent study found an 89pc alignment of our interests, 88pc with the Dutch and Danes). But as many in Britain come to conclude that this fight is lost, and we’re better off out, many Swedes are coming to the same conclusion.

    According to a poll by TNS Sifo, the largest polling firm in Sweden, 36 per cent of the Swedes would wish to leave the EU if Brits vote to leave, and just 32 per cent would stay. Remember, this is a Sweden that voted in defiance of its entire political class in 2003 against adopting the Euro. And, of course, a Sweden that has suffered more than most from the EU’s failure to respond to recent demographic challenges: it has ended up with more asylum seekers, per capita, than any country on earth.
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04...u-well-follow/

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-e...ase-of-brexit/

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Swedes worry about Brexit. Hopefully Sweden will also leave if Brexit happens.

    People who want Britain to leave the European Union often claim it could rekindle relationships with its best friends like the US or Australia. But are they missing a better friend closer to home: Sweden?

    Many Swedes think so, and claim that Brexit would be tough for Sweden. Here’s what they’re saying:

    1. Sweden would lose a kindred spirit in Europe

    If you listen to the debate in Britain, you could get the impression that EU countries gang up to impose their will on the UK.

    In fact, Britain has its own bloc of like-minded countries that often vote with it – Sweden and the Netherlands chief among them. These countries are broadly in favour of free trade and more competition. It was also this group that successfully led the charge for the first ever EU budget cut in 2013.

    Sweden voted with the UK in more than 88 percent of votes between 2009 and 2015, according to Votewatch Europe.

    “There are lots of reasons for Sweden to be worried. Our partnership with the UK, which like us is outside the euro but inside the EU, is really important for us,” says political commentator and Moderate Party politician Ulrica Schenström, who was ex-PM Fredrik Reinfeldt’s state secretary.

    “Britain has done a lot of the heavy lifting for us non-euro countries,” she says.
    http://www.thelocal.se/20160428/why-...g-about-brexit

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    In the US, Republicans including Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan have rejected Obama's "back of the queue" threat (Haven't seen Donald Trump saying anything about it yet). From the Heritage Foundation, here's a look about a post-Brexit UK-US deal:

    Why Obama Is Wrong About Trade and Brexit
    During an April 22 press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron, President Barack Obama stated that, were Britain to leave the European Union, Britain would end up at the “back of the queue” for a trade deal with the United States.

    Observers wrongly understood this to mean that the U.S. would not negotiate with Britain until it had completed negotiations with all other trading partners. In fact, the President meant that negotiations with Britain could not, as a practical matter, be concluded for a number of years.

    The President is incorrect: Negotiations with Britain could be completed faster than other pending U.S. negotiations, because the kind of trade treaty the U.S. should seek to negotiate with Britain is different from the controversial, all-encompassing, large-bloc agreements the Administration has pursued in the Pacific and the Atlantic.

    The Administration’s Preference for Large-Bloc Agreements
    The Obama Administration has argued that the future of U.S. trade diplomacy rests on making agreements with large blocs of nations. In the Pacific, there is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), signed by 12 Pacific Rim nations in February 2016. In the Atlantic, there is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), under negotiation between the U.S. and the European Union (EU). Summing up this approach, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said in October 2015 that “we’re not particularly in the market for FTAs [free trade agreements] with individual countries.”1

    This position diverges from that of previous post-war U.S. Administrations, which emphasized, first, multilateral negotiations through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which later became the World Trade Organization (WTO), and second, the negotiation of FTAs with individual nations, such as the U.S.–Korea agreement signed in 2007.

    The move away from the WTO came as a response to the failure of the Doha Round, which was launched in 2001. The end of that effort for a comprehensive deal has led the WTO to focus on smaller measures of trade reform. In response, many nations, including the U.S., have turned to large regional trade agreements, such as the TPP, as the next best thing: These agreements are as comprehensive as Doha, but larger in geographical scope than FTAs with individual nations.

    President Obama’s comment at the press conference was thus not substantively new. What made it controversial was his use of his appearance with Prime Minister Cameron to intervene in the domestic British debate over the June 23 referendum on British membership of the EU.

    Unwrapping the Administration’s Position
    In the United States, trade agreements are negotiated by the U.S. Trade Representative, a politically appointed position nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Now well into his final year in office, President Obama cannot hope to set the U.S. trade agenda for his successor: Serious negotiations between the U.S. and Britain on trade following a U.K. exit from the European Union (Brexit) would not likely occur until 2017.

    Moreover, in later remarks, the President acknowledged that his comments at the press conference had been misinterpreted: He did not mean that the U.S. would choose to negotiate with other nations before it negotiated with Britain. Advocates of Britain’s EU membership who claimed this “are wrong to do that.”

    The President continued:

    My simple point is…that it’s hard to negotiate trade deals…. [T]he UK would not be able to negotiate something with the United States faster than the EU. We wouldn’t abandon our efforts to negotiate a trade deal [TTIP] with our largest trading partner, the European market, but rather it could be five years from now…before we were able to actually get something done [with Britain].2
    In short, President Obama’s position is that the U.S. will continue to negotiate with the EU because it seeks to conclude a complex, large-bloc agreement in the Atlantic. The U.S. would also negotiate with Britain if it left the EU, but since Britain could not hope to negotiate with the U.S. faster than the EU, it would be some years before those negotiations concluded. While this position is incorrect, it is more subtle than the headlines generated by the President’s press conference.

    The Value of a U.S.–U.K. Free Trade Agreement
    The President’s argument that it would take many years to negotiate a U.S.-U.K. FTA rests on the assumption that such an agreement would have to be as complex as the U.S.’s negotiations with the EU over the TTIP. This assumption is wrong for three reasons.

    First, the EU is not a unitary negotiating partner: dealing with it is far more complicated than dealing with the U.K. alone. Second, the British and American economies are significantly complimentary: The U.K. imports food and the U.S. exports it, for example. Reaching an agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. in these realms should therefore be easier than reaching an agreement between the U.S. and the entire EU. Third, what is at stake in the TTIP negotiations is, in part, the EU’s regulatory model: If the U.K. was no longer in the EU, it would have no reason to make the defense of that model a matter of principle.

    But there is another and much more fundamental consideration: The reason why the TPP’s passage is imperiled in the U.S. and why the TTIP is widely unpopular in Britain and Europe alike is precisely because both are large, all-inclusive trade deals. Such deals are often regarded as easier for corporations, unions, and environmental groups (among others) to manipulate, and regardless of the truth of these allegations, it is certainly true that their complexity makes them harder to understand than simpler agreements.

    The way ahead on U.S.–U.K. trade is to focus on sectors in which agreement is likely to be easier and in which major gains are likely. The goal of these negotiations would be to work rapidly to conclude an agreement that could become a basis for additional cooperation as new areas for it emerged. This is precisely the approach that the WTO has now adopted. It is the U.S. and EU’s preference for comprehensive deals that is out of date.

    A high-quality but limited agreement between the U.S. and Britain, based clearly on the promotion of economic freedom and respect for national sovereignty, would set a new model for free trade agreements between nations, one that would move away from the big-bang approach that is clearly meeting substantial resistance on both sides of the Atlantic. Such an agreement, which would favor incremental gains over the extended pursuit of unattainable perfection, would help to revivify enthusiasm for free trade by eliminating the complaint that the resulting agreements are too vast to be understood and too easily manipulated by insiders.
    more http://www.heritage.org/research/rep...ade-and-brexit

    Right now protectionist France and Italy are threatening to block TTIP, while Romania is blocking the Canada agreement. That said, I am skeptical about TTIP. We dont know a great amount about what has been negotiated, or what benefits or losses it may have.

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