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Thread: Brexit

  1. #21
    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    The EU attitude to democracy, right here. Above al the EU elites hate referendums as, since 2005, they've tended not to go their way.

    According to The Sunday Times the German chancellor has privately argued the vote has created added turmoil in a Europe already suffering under economic and migratory strains.

    A German government source told the paper: “It was a completely unnecessary risk that comes as a result of party politics rather than actual concern for Britain’s best interests.”

    The source added that the referendum “will make us sweat until the last moment".

    “All eyes will be on Britain in June. Given the huge challenges Europe is facing at the moment, this extra instability is the last thing anyone needs,” the source said.

    According to the paper, Ms Merkel believes the UK leaving the EU would be the “ultimate disaster” for the bloc in the face of ongoing and impending crises.

    She has reportedly offered up her services for an Obama-style intervention to convince voters to stay in the EU.

    Ms Merkel told David Cameron last month she “stands ready” to help, but pro-EU campaigners have concerns such an intervention may not be the best course, the Sunday Times says.

    One Remain campaigner told the paper: “Voters assume EU leaders want us to stay but they assume it’s in their interests for us to stay, not that it is in our interests.”
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/eu...um-unnecessary

  2. #22
    Senior Member Loyalist's Avatar
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    I'm becoming slightly more optimistic about the exit side prevailing. I have some middle-aged cousins who live in a market town in Shropshire, and they and everyone they interact with seems to be voting out. Some of these people used to be solid Lib-Dem supporters, and are now sharing UKIP and Farage material on Facebook at every turn. The globalist banking class that Cameron and the EU-mongers belong to also control the media and dissemination of opinion and poll "results", and even though they're being forced to concede that the exit camp is either in a dead heat of pulling slightly ahead, I strongly suspect it's much more lopsided than that.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loyalist View Post
    I'm becoming slightly more optimistic about the exit side prevailing. I have some middle-aged cousins who live in a market town in Shropshire, and they and everyone they interact with seems to be voting out. Some of these people used to be solid Lib-Dem supporters, and are now sharing UKIP and Farage material on Facebook at every turn. The globalist banking class that Cameron and the EU-mongers belong to also control the media and dissemination of opinion and poll "results", and even though they're being forced to concede that the exit camp is either in a dead heat of pulling slightly ahead, I strongly suspect it's much more lopsided than that.
    The pollsters are basically admitting the result is near-impossible to forecast:

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/me...tistics-2016-5

    One mystery, unanswered as of yet, is why phone polls show much greater (something like 8 points greater) for Remain compared to online polls. Many of those placing great faith in a Remain victory are fans of the phone polls. The online polls were just as accurate when it came to forecasting the May 5th elections last week though.

    There will be no exit poll on the night of the referendum. The first results of elections are usually from the north-east. Could be an indication how many working class / Labour voters opted for Leave, which has emerged as one of the biggest referendum battlegrounds.

    Yesterday I got a delivery of Leave campaign materials - leaflets, posters and stickers. Next week I'll go round pushing leaflets through letterboxes. My other family members and older friends who I've asked are also for Leave, but friends of my age seem mostly for Remain. I don't think the level of interest is very high at all, yet atleast.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Brexit will be an orderly, safe journey out. The EEA - Norway option neutralises all the Remainer economic scaremongering.

    There is, however, a much simpler way of looking at this.

    Let’s start with the question: What will a British Conservative government actually do if presented with a Leave vote? Because several things are certain but rarely said:

    1. The UK will still have a Conservative government with a small majority on 24th June.
    2. The parliamentary Conservative Party will have been badly bloodied by the referendum campaign and, regardless of the result, will once again want to turn its collective mind to uniting against what it sees as The Corbyn Terror.
    3. Over half the Conservative MPs and most of the Cabinet will have voted “the wrong way” – not the profile of a governing party about to seek a total cut-off from the EU.
    4. This is even more true for Westminster in general, where MPs are overwhelmingly in favour of Remain. They will be voting on any proposed deal that answers the Leave vote.


    So simple parliamentary arithmetic topped by a Conservative impulse to reunify can only mean a pragmatic and de-risked exit path. This remains true even if a senior Leaver, even Michael Gove, takes over from David Cameron. The civil service will also be pushing a pragmatic line.

    Against a backdrop of gyrating markets and with very constrained timescales, the Government would conclude the most optimal way of de-risking Brexit would be to take up a European Economic Area position, which would mean re-joining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Indeed, this may be the only basis upon which the EU will deal.

    Such a deal would signal an end to scare stories of being cut off from the Single Market, and alleviate worries around Irish borders, Scottish independence, involvement in Science and Education programmes and notably, the concerns of British Expats and their rights.

    It is not difficult, indeed it is remarkably easy, to imagine a semi-Remain/semi-Leave Conservative Party getting behind such a deal, allowing them to present a strong and united front against Labour in time for the 2020 general election.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...medium=twitter

  5. #25
    Eala Freia Fresena
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    The EU is already broken. Debts created faultlines which are growing rapidly, the immigration desaster is the last nail to the coffin of it.

    The eastern states are in an open revolt against the invasion of muslims, the Greeks are beaten so much by both invasion and debts, there is zero reasons to stay in the EU.

    the Poles will make a revolution when they get rapefugees, Germany is boiling (you don't see it in TV or in the News)

    Austria is going national, Le Pen plans on leaving.

    Everyone is tired of that crap and wants to get out.
    weel nich will dieken dej mot wieken

  6. #26
    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Britain 'could liberate Europe again' by voting for Brexit and sparking populist revolution

    Britain could “liberate Europe” for a second time in a century by voting for Brexit on June 23, triggering a “patriotic spring” across the continent and an outpouring of populist discontent against Brussels, Geert Wilders, the right-wing Dutch populist, has claimed.

    In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, Mr Wilders – a fiercely nationalist, anti-Islamic politician whose Party for Freedom is currently topping the polls in the Netherlands – said that the populist “genie was now out of the bottle”, and could never be put back in.

    “Like in the 1940's, once again Britain could help liberate Europe from another totalitarian monster, this time called ‘Brussels’. Again, we could be saved by the British,” he said in his heavily fortified office in The Hague where an oil painting Winston Churchill and a Telegraph front page of Margaret Thatcher hang on the walls.

    "If people see that a country can leave, and the lights do not go out, there is not a war, and a country does not go bankrupt, but even flourishes. If Britain proves that this theory can become a reality, it would have an enormous effect.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...rexit-and-spa/

  7. #27
    Senior Member SaxonCeorl's Avatar
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    When it comes to who's going to win the EU referendum, the best people to ask are the bookies

    You will be hearing a lot about how close the polls are in the EU Referendum for the next month. The outcome will be variously "on a knife-edge", "too close to call" and "impossible to predict". It won't really matter what the polls actually say, because a lot of the media don't want to talk about polls any more having been burnt by the 2015 General Election polling fiasco. That painful experience, as well as the requirement to appear fair and balanced, means they will give an impression that there is no way of knowing which side is more likely to win.

    That's why businesses, diplomats, academia, the media and, yes, ordinary people have increasingly turned towards the spin-free forecasting provided by the betting markets.

    Tens of millions of pounds will be traded on the result of this one vote. It's possible it may become the biggest political betting event ever. So, it is probably worth paying attention to what the people risking real money are saying about the likely outcome and right now their verdict is pretty clear: Remain is by far the more probable winner, with our odds now showing a 79 per cent chance that the UK will vote to stay in the European Union.

    Indeed, over the last month over 90 per cent of all the money staked with us has been for Remain: a staggeringly one-sided market.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...m-but-is-this/

  8. #28
    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    The bookies did not predict a Tory majority last year, Trump winning the GOP nomination, or Leicester winning the premier league...

    Don't get me wrong, it's still likely Remain will win. But bookies aren't some independent source. They represent the conventional wisdom, and most of the time people bet according to that. Infact the total number of bets have been reported to be in favor of Leave, but most *money* has been for Remain.

    When it comes to the EU referendum, there's a couple of factors
    1) online polls showing a very close race.
    2) Phone polls showing Remain comfortably ahead (18% ahead in the latest Ipsos poll)
    3) Political science saying that referendums on constitutional issue tend to result in victories for the status quo - see Scotland and Quebec
    4) a general gut feeling among the establishment / "in the know" types that Leave couldnt possibly win.

    The Treasury came out with a report today saying there would be a Recession after Brexit. Faulty assumptions ofcourse but this is designed to scare the middle class, uninterested Conservative, Labour of Lib Dem voter into getting to the polls on the 23rd and choosing Remain, fearing an economic shock if we Leave. Levels of public understanding of what the EU is is quite low - Remain is continuing to portray it as a trading block, like in 1975, ignoring the political union aspect.

    I've said it before, biggest mistake Leave has made, and our side has made a few, is not neutralising the scaremongering about the economy. Talking about immigration is fine but there's a large middle class in this country who aren't that bothered about immigration (many benefit from it financially atleast) and will vote with their wallets. We don't want it to be that way, but it is. Then there's the left-wing voters, any appeal to that block is hindered by the fact almost every pro-Brexit leftist (eg Benn) has now died.

    One month to go. First postal ballots are mailed out on Thursday I believe.

  9. #29
    Senior Member Irminson's Avatar
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    O dear, I fear Austria's presidential elections happening all over again with a dramatic turn of the outcome at the last moment.

    Please, please, PLEASE vote for BREXIT and sent he EU (aka Soviet Union 2.0) to hell!

  10. #30
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