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Thread: Automated Jobs / Basic Income

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Horned God View Post

    Ok that's chess and Go, but what happens when the best doctor is also a computer or the best teacher or Lawyer is a computer? Will anyone go to human doctors or lawyers that charge them 10 or 100 times as much as the software equivalent?

    What happens when all the factories are completely automated, when the delivery trucks are self driving and robots do the unloading? Where will the majority of people work?
    I had this very same debate with my brother( a robotics engineer ) almost 30 years ago. He lost the debate then and even admits it now, finally.

    Technology is doomed to failure, the more technology the more the failure. It is simple as that. This can be broken down to the most basic level. As we humans rely more and more on technology we become less apt at using common sense and have less motor skills. Robots require power, if the power fails sure you might have a bot to fix the power problem, but what if it is also broken and so on and so fourth?

    People should learn a trade or skill that involves working with their hands and minds in conjunction. The Swiss in particular are known for their precision handworks what happens when they forget or even drop these skills?

    Sure kick back let all the robots do the work, just don't come begging at my door when you run out of food and tools to produce food. Long live the blacksmith king of all crafts!
    Life is like a fire hydrant- sometimes you help people put out their fires, but most of the time you just get peed on by every dog in the neighborhood.

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  3. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpearBrave View Post
    Robots require power, if the power fails sure you might have a bot to fix the power problem, but what if it is also broken and so on and so fourth?
    If the robot is broken then it will need to be repaired either by a technician or by the factory that built it. But it only takes one technician to fix many robots.

    If the robots remain delicate pieces of equipment like they are at present, then I can see how your argument could have merit, however if they achieve a good level of reliability and do not require much maintenance then I don't see how they could fail replace human workers in many fields. Human workers don't forget, have reliability issues of their own..


    Quote Originally Posted by SpearBrave View Post
    People should learn a trade or skill that involves working with their hands and minds in conjunction. The Swiss in particular are known for their precision handworks what happens when they forget or even drop these skills?
    There may well be a place for the tradesman for a long time to come. However these are still highly skilled jobs that take years to learn. My concern is more that the entry level jobs will disappear to the point that few people will have the resources available to pursue an advanced trade or profession. You can't can't put yourself through engineering school by working in a car factory if there are no lower-level jobs for humans left in the factories. Or as a taxi driver if all the taxis are automated.


    Quote Originally Posted by SpearBrave View Post
    Sure kick back let all the robots do the work, just don't come begging at my door when you run out of food and tools to produce food. Long live the blacksmith king of all crafts!
    By all means keep up the blacksmithing, but I'm sure you are aware that what you are in the business of making are luxury goods. When you make a gate, say, or an axe out of a lump of iron you are not competing on price with the mass-produced equivalents.

    You will only ever have a tiny % of the total market share for those items (gates and axes) as most customers just want the cheapest item that will do the job they want done, and that item is rarely one that is handmade.

    Therefor I don't see how a return to skilled handicraft can replace the vast majority of the jobs that will be lost to automation.

    In an increasingly automated world the future for those without advanced skills of some kind looks rather bleak.
    Close observation may result in feelings of horror, wonder and awe at world you find yourself inhabiting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Horned God View Post
    In an increasingly automated world the future for those without advanced skills of some kind looks rather bleak.
    Indeed. Everyone would have to be trained for highly skilled work. With the current population of the world (and rapidly rising) I don't see it possible. With a smaller population it would be possible if you put space colonization in the picture. But the way the science is going that won't come any time soon. Enter dystopia.
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Horned God View Post
    If the robot is broken then it will need to be repaired either by a technician or by the factory that built it. But it only takes one technician to fix many robots.

    If the robots remain delicate pieces of equipment like they are at present, then I can see how your argument could have merit, however if they achieve a good level of reliability and do not require much maintenance then I don't see how they could fail replace human workers in many fields. Human workers don't forget, have reliability issues of their own..
    This was exactly the same argument my brother was trying to make 30 years ago. Automation has really not improved much since that time.

    My whole point is that it is not very wise to totally rely on technology it will always fail at some point. Have you ever been to a bank and could not conduct business because the "system" was down. I have...lots of times. The clerks did not have the capability to make the transaction manually. This is just one example of techno failure, there are many others.

    There may well be a place for the tradesman for a long time to come. However these are still highly skilled jobs that take years to learn. My concern is more that the entry level jobs will disappear to the point that few people will have the resources available to pursue an advanced trade or profession. You can't can't put yourself through engineering school by working in a car factory if there are no lower-level jobs for humans left in the factories. Or as a taxi driver if all the taxis are automated.
    Western Europeans had a guild tradesman system for centuries, young men would learn their craft from a master and become a journeyman and then travel and work for other masters until they became their own master. It was a fail proof system of learning a quality skill and what help make Europeans who they are and allowed them to colonize the globe with quality craft.

    By all means keep up the blacksmithing, but I'm sure you are aware that what you are in the business of making are luxury goods. When you make a gate, say, or an axe out of a lump of iron you are not competing on price with the mass-produced equivalents.
    You are right, the mass produced items simply cannot compete to hand crafted items and therefor there will always be a market.

    To say the bulk of blacksmithing is luxury good is way off base, many of the items I and other smiths forged were parts for machine shops and one of kind proto types. Actually at one point that was over 75% of my time was spent on those type of items. I no longer smith because of health insurance reasons( obamacare ). The making of luxury art types goods was the fun part of the job.

    You will only ever have a tiny % of the total market share for those items (gates and axes) as most customers just want the cheapest item that will do the job they want done, and that item is rarely one that is handmade.

    Therefor I don't see how a return to skilled handicraft can replace the vast majority of the jobs that will be lost to automation.
    I only need a tiny percent of the total market. If done properly there enough tiny bits to go around. That is why I mainly just teach the craft now. No need for greed, more is simply more.

    People ( customers ) don't want to buy the cheapest thing just to get the job done, they are forced to. This goes back to the starting of the industrial revolution and the removal of man from craft. Think of all the crazy theories including marxism of social control that sprang for the industrial revolution, would we not be better off without them?

    There is and has been a huge resurgence in handcraft and it is growing even faster that I would have ever thought 30 years ago. People are now even making practical shoes by hand again. This has been a very pleasant surprise for those in the handcraft industry.

    In an increasingly automated world the future for those without advanced skills of some kind looks rather bleak.
    In an increasingly automated world the future is actually very bleak for those that do not know how to take care of themselves. Each year I meet more and more "educated idiots". While I do not put down education if it is practical, I do not think it wise to put your eggs in one basket.

    If we continue to decline at the rate we currently are we are in trouble as a people of losing who we are and what made us who we are.

    There is a strange movie that really is a window into the future on this, it is supposed to be a comedy, but the reality of it actually happening is very scary for us.

    Idiocracy - Trailer


    Worse every racialist in America can very much relate to this part of the movie in the last eight years

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    I don't see any cause for such fear and pessimism. We're already seeing populist challenges regarding minimum wages and executive compensation in our current climate. Do we really imagine the masses would stand by and let the technological ownership class reap all of the profits of automation? Some of the profits would go the masses, perhaps in the form of an income stipend as contemplated by Switzerland. The whole point of automation is to make people's lives easier anyway; they're not going to sit back and laugh and watch the masses starve.

    No matter what happens, the better option for the people is to not require a job or a hand-out in the first place. If you want a job, you can be a self-employed farmer, carpenter, seamstress, etc. That's what we're meant to be anyway. Not "baristas" and "entrepreneurial innovation consultants"

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    For arguments sake say that full automation was achieved..what would humans do then? We are bad enough now, it seems, with ridiculous amounts of free time and money to spend on crap. Spend it getting smashed, eating junk and screwing sex robots or what? That is what would happen..certainly none of the Star-Trek Marxist bullshit where everybody dedicates themselves to personal improvement and science...

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    First reports are that c. 80% voted No to a basic income. 2/3rds voted for the asylum changes, most voted for preimplanation diagnosis.

    http://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/absti...lic-initiative

    edit: Here's a writeup
    Switzerland has become the first country in the world to hold a nationwide vote on introducing an unconditional basic income. Despite a spectacular pro campaign, there is no hope of it winning a majority.

    Polls closed at midday local time and final results are expected late afternoon. The proposal is expected to win about 22% of the vote, according to projections.

    "The campaigners failed to present a convincing funding scheme for their proposal. But they managed to launch a broad debate about an unconditional basic income," says leading political scientist Claude Longchamp.

    The promoters – a group of humanists, artists and entrepreneurs – have admitted defeat but they have pledged to continue their campaign.
    "There is a genuine interest in the issue as numerous public discussions have shown," says Oswald Sigg, a senior member of the initiative committee.

    The campaigners believe an unconditional basic income would allow all residents to live in dignity, as the money would help cover essential needs and they would be free to choose a more creative way of living.
    The proposal aims at reforming the cumbersome existing social security systems, boost volunteer work and soften the impact of social disruption caused by technological change.
    http://www.swissinfo.ch/directdemocr...rdict/42200378

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    Hmm, I think humanity needs to take a middle approach role here if we've to survive and preserve some of our ancestors' ways.

    Automation is a good thing because on the one hand it eliminates the slave labor, machines are able to mass-produce at a faster pace than humans. But that's also a negative thing, because automation has contributed to the creation of a mass consumption culture.

    Back in the day, for example, as a woman, you needed to become educated with housework and cooking skills, because you would need to apply it with your new family. Let's take the example of a washing machine. Can't cook nowadays? McDonalds hamburgers are cheap. Technology and the availability of these options have not just simplified life, but turned it to the point of sedentarism.

    Once again, I recognise the benefits of automation, but there are examples in life when it doesn't work and there needs to be a human touch to solve a situation. The server down example at the bank is a good one. Something else which happened to me was when I was returning from a long road trip, everybody was hungry, thirsty, and we stopped for gas. The gas station didn't serve us because the system was also down. I couldn't believe it, but no, there was nothing they could do! Even if we paid cash, even when we knew the prices, it wasn't possible to serve us. Or what about when we need to call the customer service and we spend hours flipping through menus and praying to finally get a human voice who will understand the situation and help us? It can be frustrating.

    Hand made items nowadays are considered luxury and cost "more" if you compare the price with the cheap consumerist price. But if you compare with the actual work invested, the price isn't so bad. Just think, which is more healthy, the vegetables from farmers market or a supermarket? Buying the former you not only care about your health, but you directly finance their income, contributing to your local economy.

    I'm not saying we should pray to ashes and be anachronistic. Honestly I'm horrified to imagine a world where everything depends on computers. It just needs for the system to go down a bit and we've immense losses.

    By the way, it reminds of an already discussed topic: Modernization: Good or Bad?. The opinions here are also majority for a middle approach.

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    If You Think Your Job Is One That Cannot Be Automated, You’re In For A Rude Awakening

    It is pretty accepted knowledge that a number of lower-skilled jobs will disappear in the coming 5-10 years, due to the human element being replaced by autonomous machines. One of the most at-risk professions is that of Truck Driver, which as 13D Research points out, is one of the no.1 reasons you rarely (if ever) hear President Trump discuss automation in the workplace:

    A widely circulated NPR graphic shows “truck driver” was the most common job in more than half of the U.S. states in 2014?—?in part because how the Bureau of Labor Statistics sorts common jobs, such as educators, into small groups. Indeed, truck driving is one of the last jobs standing that affords good pay (median salary for tractor-trailer drivers, $40,206) and does not require a college degree. According to the American Trucking Association, there are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the U.S. Entire businesses (think restaurants and motels) and hundreds of small communities, supporting an additional 5.2 million people, have been built around serving truckers crisscrossing the nation. That’s 8.7 million trucking-related jobs. It also represents one of Trump’s most important voting blocs?—?working-class men.
    And while it may be further out on the timeline, if you think your job requires a higher, special element of skill and mental acuity that just cannot be automated, you are probably very mistaken. In fact, there are few (if any) jobs in which a machine would be inferior to a person. And this is not as far out in the future as you may think.

    Just imagine, how Truck Drivers would have reacted if ten years ago, you told them that they would be at risk of being replaced by a machine? And this isn’t some far-off vision of the future… it is happening now:

    But like many of the blue-collar jobs the President promised to save during his campaign, the future of these 3.5 million trucking jobs is less than certain. Fully automated trucks could put half of America’s truckers out of a job within a decade, The Los Angeles Times reported last year. This isn’t an imagined future. It’s already happening. Otto, an automated trucking company acquired by Uber, made a delivery of beer last year and has been approved to travel two routes in Ohio.

    Last year, Noel Perry, an analyst at industry research firm FTR Transportation Intelligence, told The International Business Times: “Despite a shortage in high-quality drivers, pay hasn’t gone up in five years. Trucks are easier to drive.” So-called “soft-automation” features, like automatic braking and lane assist, mean the trucks can already be driven by less experienced operators commanding smaller salaries. Even ahead of automation, the profession is losing traction. Perry’s final remark to IBT strikes to the heart of the matter?—?“The free market produces jobs, the government doesn’t.”

    Now imagine, telling lower level lawyers, doctors, programmers, accountants, etc, that their jobs are at risk now. While many people would scoff at the notion, they are likely the same people who scoffed at the notion of trucks being automated ten years ago. Denis Sproten explained a lot of the history and future of automation of labor recently:

    A short introduction, first there were the luddites, destroying machinery, which automated mundane tasks. People tell us, we should be happy that we don’t need to do these anymore. This is all history, from which we moved on:

    Working the fields / weaving: Let’s assume that required a machine with IQ 80 or MIQ of 80, production increased and more products were sold on markets, consumption increased, transportation was needed and distribution of goods into shops. More roads were needed etc, we found a replacement occupation in the next layer.

    Working as a driver / service industry : assume it requires a machine of IQ 100-110, more complex tasks, product knowledge, navigation, forms to be filled, start of knowledge industry. These jobs are being replaced now as we get automated trucks, drones delivering, online shops replacing shops on the street.

    Working in an office Knowledge Industry : assume it requires an IQ of 100-120, even more complex tasks, which involve creation of new products, design, programming, lawyers, accountants, doctors etc. We are not there yet, but we soon will have AI which can do basic tasks of doctors, writing news articles, design thinking, algorithms which categorise knowledge and lets you search it.

    People are being pushed to become Data Scientists, AI programmers, math geniuses writing algorithms, all jobs which likely require an IQ of 130+. Programs can now write music and are starting to be creative.

    The trend I see is that, yes we will be able to find new jobs, but they will require really highly intelligent people, which covers only a small percentage of the population, no matter how much education they have received. Maybe becoming cyborgs will be the answer, if we believe Elon Musk.
    More “intelligent” machines below the scale of a true “A.I.” means is a growing number of jobs will be “outsourced” to machines, and they will never be coming back. Even now, you likely find yourself with less reason to visit the doctor, because you can just go on WebMD and see if there is a simple solution to what ails you. Imagine that function being extrapolated across a series of machines at the basic level of medicine, to serve your needs for more common medical questions/issues. Wouldn’t that eliminate the need for a significant number of medical professionals?

    Medicine is just one example, because truly nothing is off limits. “Humans Need Not Apply” explained this masterfully over two years ago – if you think your job is “safe” because “a machine could never do it,” you better think again.

    All of this is a precursor to a topic I plan on discussing in the future – not if, but when, a machine is created that is as capable (or more likely, far superior to and more capable than) as a human being. What will that machine look like and be capable of? How will it view and process the existence of humans, and/or threat human beings pose to its own existence? It is something you have seen in many sci-fi movies, and discussed by many billionaire business moguls and scientists. Still, there are many aspects of A.I. that have not been touched on by the ongoing discussion, mostly related to how a machine would react, knowing that it is superior to its human creators.

    In the meantime, while the machines created today and in the near future might not be more capable than their human creators, they are going to become exceedingly efficient at the jobs they are built to do. And one of those jobs a machine might replace, is yours. Whether this is something that a politician is willing to discuss or not, you should think long and hard about what it will take for a machine to replace you in the workplace, and what you will do with your life if that happens to you while you’re still in your working years.
    http://fmshooter.com/think-job-one-c...ing/#more-1459

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    Despite the basic income plan being rejected by Swiss voters, a municipality in Switzerland have decided they will have a live trial for guaranteed basic income:

    The mayor of Rheinauexternal link, a town on the Rhine river in northern Switzerland, said the local council agreed to participate in a privately-funded minimum income project.

    This measure comes two years after Swiss voters massively rejected a nationwide proposal for a basic income.

    The brainchild of a Swiss filmmaker, this venture is slotted to start next year on condition that enough money can be collected through crowd funding and that enough citizens are willing to participate.

    Mayor Andrea Jenni was quoted as saying in several media on Wednesday that participants – current residents above the age of 25 only - would receive a monthly income of CHF2,500 ($2,500) but any additional money earned must be refunded.

    This condition might make it difficult to convince at least 600 residents (of the 1,300-member town) to take part, Jenni said.

    Further details of the live experiment will be announced at the end of August.

    A similar project is underway in Finland with a group of 2,000 unemployed people receiving monthly payments of about CHF660. That two-year trial concludes next January.

    Small privately funded projects are also taking place in Kenya and Germany, while the city of Stockton in California wants to launch an 18-month experiment next year.
    http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/live-tri...ncome/44170802

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