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Thread: 2016 Presidential Elections: Is Hofer Going to Win in Austria?

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    2016 Presidential Elections: Is Hofer Going to Win in Austria?

    Exit poll:



    Austria's anti-immigration far-right triumphed on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election, with candidates from the two governing parties failing to even make it into a May 22 runoff.

    Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party (FPÖ) won 36.7 of the vote, followed by Alexander van der Bellen backed by the Greens on 19.7 percent and independent candidate Irmgard Griss on 18.8 percent, projections showed.

    From the governing coalition, Rudolf Hundstorfer from the Social Democrats (SPÖ) came joint fourth with just 11.2 percent, level with Andreas Khol from the People's Party (ÖVP).

    The result, if confirmed, means that for the first time since 1945, Austria will not have a president backed by either the SPÖ or ÖVP.

    Support for the two parties has been sliding for years and in the last general election in 2013 they only just garnered enough support to re-form Chancellor Werner Faymann's "grand coalition".

    Austria also no longer has the lowest unemployment rate in the European Union and Faymann's coalition, in power since 2008, has bickered over structural reforms.

    The next general election is due in 2018. The FPÖ is currently leading national opinion polls with more than 30 percent of voter intentions, boosted by Europe's migrant crisis.

    The Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the centre-right People's Party (ÖVP) have dominated Austrian politics since 1945 and form the unloved current government of Chancellor Werner Faymann.

    The president, who is ensconced in the Habsburg dynasty's former palace in central Vienna, has a largely but not entirely ceremonial role, and usually comes from one of these two parties or had their backing as an independent.

    Migrant crisis

    Support for the two main parties has been sliding for years and in the last general election in 2013 they only just garnered enough support to re-form their "grand coalition".

    "Like elsewhere in Europe, we are witnessing the downfall of the traditional parties," political analyst Peter Hajek told AFP.

    Leading opinion polls ahead of 2018 general elections with more than 30 percent is the far-right FPÖ, boosted by Europe's migrant crisis despite a firmer line in recent months from Faymann's government.

    Austria also no longer has the lowest unemployment rate in the European Union and Faymann's coalition, in power since 2008, has bickered over structural reforms.

    The FPÖ -- which under the late, SS-admiring Joerg Haider sent shockwaves around Europe after entering government in 2000 -- came second in state elections in Vienna and in Upper Austria last year.

    "In the past, the presidential election focused on personalities but this year political issues have also come into play. Hundstorfer and Khol will have to pay for their parties' failings," said Karin Cvrtila of pollster OGM.

    Story continues below…
    Heads could roll in the current government if neither candidate makes it into the run-off, she added.

    Sleeping giant

    Having a president not from either of the two main parties could shake up the traditionally staid and consensus-driven world of Austrian politics.

    Hofer -- the "friendly face of the FPÖ" who likes to carry his Glock gun in public -- has threatened to fire the government if it fails to get tougher on migrants.

    Van der Bellen has said he would refuse to swear in FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache as chancellor in 2018.

    "The role is like that of a sleeping giant who has a lot more authority than people are aware of," legal expert Manfried Welan told AFP.

    "I can only say that I have a good feeling that things are looking good," Hofer said as he cast his vote on Sunday morning.
    http://www.thelocal.at/20160424/runo...sidential-poll


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    Eala Freia Fresena
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    Looks like Hofer will make it.

    The migrant invasion will bring every government to be nationalist.

    The new parties of course have their share of moles and sleepers, but in the end, they will not be able to deceive anymore their voters.
    weel nich will dieken dej mot wieken

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    Senior Member FinstererStreiter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocko View Post
    Looks like Hofer will make it.
    Won't be easy. The degenerate political camps from Greens to "conservative" ÖVP could unite under one goal, to avert Norbert Hofer at all costs. Then there is some simmering mobilization capability of the leftwingers and antifa types who are going to vote in the final ballot.

    Everything hangs on the question how many of the voters who picked ÖVP candidate Khol and independent candidate Griss can be won for Hofer. Do they really want a Green president who supports unrestricted immigration? It's a question of lesser evil to these people. Hofer needs at least 1/3 of the people who voted for Griss and about 2/3 of the people who voted for Khol. The few Lugner voters may tend to Hofer.

    I expect a tight race, with a final result of 55%/45% for either side. The momentum is with Hofer, though.

    http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160702/vsgcx2l3.jpg

    -> Mercy is a shield used by the weak <-

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    I really hope he can win the second round, he pretty much has to. I mean a Green-party President....really???...just no, even if you wouldn't normally vote for an anti-invasion party surely having a Green President would be too crazy for most people to allow.

    Since 2008/9 I've been following European nationalist politics, and so far none have managed to fully take-power yet. And frankly I'm getting sick of waiting, it needs to happen sooner rather than later. Because every year the demographics of Europe get a bit worse, and eventually it'll be impossible in some countries to win democratically. Once that tipping-point is reached, the only likely outcome is civil conflict.

    Austria has a good chance to have the first properly-Nationalistic government in modern Europe, it just needs to show some courage and ignore all the attempts by left/liberal media to undermine the FPO's chances.

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    This could be big, even if the Austrian presidency has been mostly ceremonial in the past. I think Hofer has a better chance in the second round than Le Pen will next year. The campaign will undoubtedly polarise the entire political establishment (commies and conservatives alike) against Hofer, proving once again that there is only one real oppositional movement.

    The next legislative election will be more important than this in terms of actual government, right? I've been following the polls and the FPÖ has been bossing the opposition for months, often with a lead of 10%. I hope a potential loss here will not damage that momentum.

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    Senior Member Englisc's Avatar
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    Nice!

    The parliament in Vienna has agreed on tougher asylum rules to stem migrant inflow. The government will be able to declare a state of emergency if refugee numbers threaten public order or overwhelm public institutions.

    Politicians in Austria adopted a tough new asylum law on Wednesday to deal with the refugee crisis. A total of 98 parliamentarians, including those from the ruling coalition's Social Democrats and Center-right conservatives, voted for the new legislation. Just 67 voted against the measures.

    According to the new rules, officials would be able to enforce a state of emergency, initially for six months, if the number of migrants coming into the country increased suddenly or if the numbers threatened "national security." Depending on the situation, the emergency could be extended for three more six-month-long terms.
    http://www.dw.com/en/austria-passes-...ees/a-19218817

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    My vote went to Hofer, ofc! And I'll do the same on run-off vote day. We must fend off that Green antinational mass-invasion fanatic under all circumstances! That man could abuse his power to hinder the introduction of a FPÖ-led government. Austria means nothing to him, only idiots and Viennese people vote for that joke figure.

    It will be a hard fight but Hofer can make it! It could be great signal to all upright patriots in all of Europe: The multiculturalists are not invincible!

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    Quote Originally Posted by FinstererStreiter View Post
    Won't be easy. The degenerate political camps from Greens to "conservative" ÖVP could unite under one goal, to avert Norbert Hofer at all costs. Then there is some simmering mobilization capability of the leftwingers and antifa types who are going to vote in the final ballot.
    Yes that is very possible. It happened in France during the last election.


    Quote Originally Posted by Leliana
    only idiots and Viennese people vote for that joke figure.
    Just saw a chart for the votes in Vienna. Most of the districts that voted green have a large portion of immigrant people (Turks and Bosnians mostly).
    Lieber tot als Sklave!

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    First of all, the FPÖ of course isn't a "nationalist proper" party by and at large as it's still a party of the system and has arranged itself with it, and they have made too many deals with Israel for my taste - but it's probably the closest we have to a Nationalist-minded party coming to power in Europe any time soon and considering the situation Europe is in we lack the time to wait for something better, but most hope for the party to unwillingly buy us perhaps four, or five more years. The love-hate relationship the Nationalist movements have with the FPÖ is a peculiarity of Austrian everyday politics, and outsiders would be very hard-pressed to understand.

    Hofer of course is as close to a Nationalist and believer in a wider German culture as we'll get, and he has been very prudent in managing to distance himself enough to be credible and unattackable from the media & opponents, but not distanced himself enough to have him lose street credibility from the 'hardcore' folks (he found his ways around the questions).

    Strache fielded a very Nationalist-leaning candidate in Barbara Rosenkranz (ten-times mother of kids with Germanic names, attends Heathen festivals, et. al.) in the 2010 election but considering other candidates have generally been without any chance against an incumbent, we all believe he fielded Rosenkranz in that election to get rid of a loose cannon.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ocko
    Looks like Hofer will make it.
    It has been an interesting weekend and week. For weeks the "independent" opinion polls had the Green candidate leading, and then suddenly come election day we all switch on our TV screens to see Hofer lead by almost 15%. Everyone saw it coming, but no one saw it coming. And now virtually every other left-winger is thinking about emigrating in the case Hofer wins it and they're heavy at work doing all types of smear-campaigns that seek to "prove" that Hofer were a "Neo-Nazi" of sorts --- and all it does is gain more votes for him.

    There are two things that must be known here: For one, the Austrian president is not as power-less as the German one. The Austrian president is able to refuse to swear certain people into office (this has been done before by Klestil to prevent Nationalist-minded FPÖ members such as Prinzhorn and Kabas in 2000), and he may dissolve government at will (this has never been done before, but Hofer has gained much support in saying that had he been president last summer, he would have summarily dismissed the government for their breach of constitution when they basically let hundreds of thousands cross the country!)

    For another, this is the ultimate question of direction. On the small side of things, Austria has been a corrupt and stagnant country for years, because all that's happened is much of the same shit. After five years of bickering and making things worse for commonfolk, new elections are called with the SPÖ and the ÖVP forming a 'grand coalition' government despite losing umpteen seats, and then it's five years of the same stuff.

    And of course, it's also the country which had the second-highest per capita so-called "refugees" taken in, right after Sweden. And of course it has more to come because it is both on the Balcans route and the Italy route. One has swamped the East, and the other is in danger of swamping the West.

    Quote Originally Posted by FinstererStreiter View Post
    Won't be easy. The degenerate political camps from Greens to "conservative" ÖVP could unite under one goal, to avert Norbert Hofer at all costs
    And it's happening again, albeit not officially. Officially, no candidate declared their support for van der Bellen thus far, but in effect all of them except Lugner have!

    Lugner said he would support no one. He has stuck to this.
    Hundstorfer has along with chancellor Faymann stated they don't declare support for anyone, but will themselves be voting vdB.
    Khol has refused to give guidance to his voters, but has mentioned he is 'one great European' and asks his voters to vote accordingly (vdB).
    And just today, the last candidate, Griss has said that whilst she will abstain from voting altogether, that she has a set of credentials, and that vdB shares them.

    The fun part is of course that vdB has already stated that regardless of how strong the FPÖ will perform in the next General Election, he will refuse to swear any of them into office, even if they have over 50%. Since that figure is unlikely anyhow, what is bound to happen is that we're going to have a Red-Black-Green-Pink coalition government with about 100 seats going 'all against the Blues' with the FPÖ having 80 seats.

    Hofer has stated that he will ask the strongest party first to form a government, even if that happened to be the Greens. Fair enough, he IS arguing from the position that the FPÖ has been leading opinion polling by more than 10% at all points since last summer - and had already been leading slightly beforehand; for them the last election in 2013 came at the worst possible point in time (when the Hypo Alpe Adria fiasco was discussed much).

    Quote Originally Posted by Haliaeetus View Post
    Just saw a chart for the votes in Vienna. Most of the districts that voted green have a large portion of immigrant people (Turks and Bosnians mostly).
    This is marginally true. I have little to no information on Bosniaks because I don't regularly keep contact with Bosniak Muslims at all. I do have some acquaintances who originally hail from Bosnia but they're all Croats or Serbs.

    The sample I have from my town (not Vienna) is: the entire Armenian population of town voted for Hofer, and in which the entire Croat and Serbian population voted for Hofer (on the latter case, I asked about a dozen naturalised folks, and they all mentioned their entire family voted for Hofer).

    The Turks overwhelmingly vote Greens (naturally, because no one else likes them, really), and there is another huge factor --- students. Most of them are naively and/or ridiculously left-wing, especially in the humanities, and this is why large cities with a huge student population such as Vienna, Innsbruck, Linz and Graz tilted towards van der Bellen.

    On the other hand 72% of workers voted for Hofer, and that's quite a remarkable figure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Englisc View Post
    Nice!
    Actually not nice at all. What comes in the guise of a new, tough asylum law is actually a back-door to dictatorship under the current government. The new laws effectively don't keep anyone out - they're not designed to. The FPÖ saw through this and voted against the bill, Team Stronach did not and gave the necessary votes to pass it (regardless of how many present, there need to be a majority vote FOR a bill, it being 92).

    The only thing they enable is that the State Secretary of the Interior can at any time - without permission from the parliament, declare a state of national emergency. No constitution, no parliament, just one of Dollfuß's heirs able to take the reins for as long as he may please. It's an instrument brought ahead because the "powers that be" are afraid of falling out of power.

    It's like 1933 again. They're so scared of Hitler that they're running into Dollfuß's arms.
    -In kalte Schatten versunken... /Germaniens Volk erstarrt / Gefroren von Lügen / In denen die Welt verharrt-
    -Die alte Seele trauernd und verlassen / Verblassend in einer erklärbaren Welt / Schwebend in einem Dunst der Wehmut / Ein Schrei der nur unmerklich gellt-
    -Auch ich verspüre Demut / Vor dem alten Geiste der Ahnen / Wird es mir vergönnt sein / Gen Walhalla aufzufahren?-

    (Heimdalls Wacht, In kalte Schatten versunken, stanzas 4-6)

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    Senior Member Mööv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sigurd View Post
    This is marginally true. I have little to no information on Bosniaks because I don't regularly keep contact with Bosniak Muslims at all. I do have some acquaintances who originally hail from Bosnia but they're all Croats or Serbs.

    The sample I have from my town (not Vienna) is: the entire Armenian population of town voted for Hofer, and in which the entire Croat and Serbian population voted for Hofer (on the latter case, I asked about a dozen naturalised folks, and they all mentioned their entire family voted for Hofer).

    The Turks overwhelmingly vote Greens (naturally, because no one else likes them, really), and there is another huge factor --- students. Most of them are naively and/or ridiculously left-wing, especially in the humanities, and this is why large cities with a huge student population such as Vienna, Innsbruck, Linz and Graz tilted towards van der Bellen.

    On the other hand 72% of workers voted for Hofer, and that's quite a remarkable figure.

    Yes, Serbs and Croats always vote FPO. My cousins ex husband is a Viennese Serb and I remember when we spoke some time ago he was pretty much fanatical about FPO and had a weird thing for Strache.
    Lieber tot als Sklave!

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