View Poll Results: Will Obama be re-elected?

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  • Yes

    13 81.25%
  • No

    3 18.75%
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Thread: Will Obama Be Re-elected?

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Berlichingen View Post
    Yes. An incumbent has a massive advantage.
    Though it is still minor when compared to other countries. Sure, the Austrian president only has a celebratory & symbolic function for the most part and is nowhere near as powerful as the US President, however whenever an incumbent stood for election, it has not happened here that he was defeated, in fact they would always take straight victory in the first round.
    -In kalte Schatten versunken... /Germaniens Volk erstarrt / Gefroren von Lügen / In denen die Welt verharrt-
    -Die alte Seele trauernd und verlassen / Verblassend in einer erklärbaren Welt / Schwebend in einem Dunst der Wehmut / Ein Schrei der nur unmerklich gellt-
    -Auch ich verspüre Demut / Vor dem alten Geiste der Ahnen / Wird es mir vergönnt sein / Gen Walhalla aufzufahren?-

    (Heimdalls Wacht, In kalte Schatten versunken, stanzas 4-6)

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by InvaderNat View Post
    Yes but only because the Republicans have put forward such pathetic and horrible candidates, except Ron Paul who is unlikely to win anyway. Even George Bush could get re-elected against the three stooges Romney, Gingrich and Santorum.
    Gingrich is unelectable in the general election, Romney & Santorum have a better chance.

    Quote Originally Posted by SwordOfTheVistula View Post
    We're not there yet, but Republicans have to pull a fair number of voters from one of two groups which often vote Democrat: fiscally conservative/socially moderate educated voters, or lower income/culturally conservative whites.

    Gingrich & Santorum would find it nearly impossible to pull voters from the former, and Romney will have trouble winning the latter.
    Santorum has won statewide election twice in Pennsylvania (US Senate, 1994 & 2000) he lost in 2006 as part of the Bush backlash. I think Santorum could win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa & Minnesota. Add in all of the states that McCain won + Indiana, Virginia & North Carolina & Santorum could win without Florida.

    Here are the states McCain carried in 2008 with their post-2010 Census electoral votes: Alaska 3, Arizona 11, Utah 6, Idaho 4, Montana 3, Wyoming 3, Texas 38, Oklahoma 7, Kansas 6, Nebraska 5 - Ne votes are split among the congressional districts with Obama picking up one in 2008 but unlikely to repeat in 2012, South Dakota 3, North Dakota 3, Missouri 10, Arkansas 6, Louisiana 8, Mississippi 6, Alabama 9, Georgia 16, South Carolina 9, Tennessee 11, Kentucky 8, West Virginia 5. That totals 180. Plus Indiana 11, North Carolina 15, Virginia 13, that brings the total up to 219. It takes 271 to win so an additional 52 votes are needed. These are the following states that could flip to the GOP on November; Pennsylvania 20, Ohio 18, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10, Minnesota 10, Iowa 6, Florida 29, Colorado 9, Nevada 6. I also think Oregon with 7 could go GOP if the GOP would ever put in the effort to win that state.

    Santorum could do very well among the Blue Collar Whites that rumor has it BHO is writing off. If Romney is the nominee then New Hampshire with 4 could be a likely pickup. Romney does come off as out of touch with Blue Collar Whites but then so does Obama to an even greater extent. I think those low-income Whites who find Romney to be an out-of-touch rich guy will prefer him over the Kenyan.

    I still think Romney will be at the top of the ticket & if he is smart will not go the diversity-inclusion route when picking a VP (Rubio, Jindah) but choose someone (safe White male) who will appeal to the Evangelical & Blue Collar voters.


    ^ Map showing the number of electoral votes each state has after reapportionment post 2010 US Census.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Van Wellenkamp's Avatar
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    I think if Obama does get re elected, we will be one step closer to civil war.

  4. #14
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    Romney Wins Florida Primary

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney staked his claim to the distinction of being the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination with a win Tuesday in Florida’s Republican primary.

    Based on exit poll data and preliminary returns, NBC News projects that Romney will win the contest, which was limited to only registered Republican voters. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the winner of the Jan. 21 South Carolina GOP primary, will finish a distant second, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in third, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul in fourth.

    Romney’s victory reflects a rebound in his fortunes over the past 10 days, during which Gingrich had initially seemed to be charging into Florida with momentum after the Palmetto State victory. The ex-speaker seemed to emerge as a primary threat to Romney’s shot at the nomination, mostly by stoking doubts among conservatives about the former Massachusetts governor’s ideological core.

    Continue Reading
    This is the upcoming caucus & primary schedule for February;

    February 4, 2012 - Nevada (caucus)

    February 4–11, 2012 - Maine (caucus)

    February 7, 2012 - Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus), Missouri(primary)

    February 28, 2012 - Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary)

  5. #15
    Senior Member Berlichingen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Wellenkamp View Post
    I think if Obama does get re elected, we will be one step closer to civil war.
    I'd like to see the country split into smaller, European-style states in a relatively peaceful manner. This country's too bipolar, dumb and dangerous to hold superpower status.

  6. #16
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    I wish that it wasn't going to be so but I can pretty much see where the train is headed: over the cliff after four more years of this clown. I'd settle for Romney at this point, which is a settlement of desparation on my part, but I'm not really fooled. The infighting amongst the Republicans, the failure to field a candidate with a consistent message, etc.
    'Militia est vita hominis super terram [The life of man upon earth is a warfare] (Job 7:1).'

  7. #17
    Senior Member SwordOfTheVistula's Avatar
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    The red states are ones which McCain won in 2008, and the blue ones are ones in which Obama has a higher approval vs disapproval rating, the others are ones which Obama won in 2008 but he has a net negative approval rating.



    The problem for the Republicans is to find a candidate which has appeal in all of the states which Obama won but he has a net negative approval rating. Gingrich and Santorum are unlikely to win states outside the South, and Ron Paul and even more so Mitt Romney will have trouble winning the southern states.

    Quote Originally Posted by Berlichingen View Post
    I'd like to see the country split into smaller, European-style states in a relatively peaceful manner. This country's too bipolar, dumb and dangerous to hold superpower status.
    That's the way it was originally set up, the states having most of the powers. Since the 1930s, the federal government has taken more & more of that power away with BS excuses under the 'commerce clause'
    Contact Congress on immigration
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    "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." --Ben Franklin

  8. #18
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    "Gingrich and Santorum are unlikely to win states outside the South, and Ron Paul and even more so Mitt Romney will have trouble winning the southern states.
    White Southerners will go for the Mormon over the Kenyan on November 6. And I think Santorum has appeal to a lot of the Blue Collar Whites across the Rustbelt (Pennsylvania through Wisconsin) many of whom are Catholics like Santorum or Protestants who are socially conservative. It comes down to having a balanced ticket.

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