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Thread: Iowa Caucus Ends in Stalemate, Romney Becomes Presumptive Challenger to Obama

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    My main issue is war. Anyone who supports sending young Americans to die for Israel loses my vote. I'll do a write-in for Ron Paul rather than vote for a demagogue like Romney or a Christian fanatic like Santorum.

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    And the race between Romney and Santorum continues. Rick Santorum keeps winning some smaller states and loses the important ones (often only by a small margin, like Ohio), but Romney is unable to achieve a decisive victory. This could go on until August, what do the US Skadites think?

    I guess that Romney will be the winner at the end of the day because he has won (and is going to win) the more important states, but can he afford to neglect the huge Christian-conservative supporter base of Rick Santorum and all the states where Rick Santorum has been the clear winner?

    Could it be a possible solution to make Rick Santorum his running-mate for vice-presidency?

    "Judge of your natural character by what you do in your dreams" - Ralph Waldo Emerson

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thusnelda View Post
    I guess that Romney will be the winner at the end of the day because he has won (and is going to win) the more important states, but can he afford to neglect the huge Christian-conservative supporter base of Rick Santorum and all the states where Rick Santorum has been the clear winner?
    The Christian-conservatives will vote republican no matter what, so Romney can afford to risk displeasing them.

    This is just a contest to see who will lose to Obama on election day. I guess the only value to be got out of the whole process for the cultural programmers is to crank-up-the-crazy as much as possible.

    They've sure got that one covered.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thusnelda View Post
    And the race between Romney and Santorum continues. Rick Santorum keeps winning some smaller states and loses the important ones (often only by a small margin, like Ohio), but Romney is unable to achieve a decisive victory. This could go on until August, what do the US Skadites think?
    It will probably drag on until June 5th. That's the last day of elections, and 2 large states which are expected to go to Romney by huge margins (California and New Jersey) vote that day. Romney is winning the coastal areas, Rocky Mountains, southwest (where lots of Mormons are), and some of the wealthier urban/suburban parts of the South.

    The big news tonight is that Gingrich, who up until now dominated the Deep South (winning South Carolina, Georgia, and the culturally southern parts of Florida) finished behind Santorum in both of the Deep South states of Alabama and Mississippi. This basically means that is campaign is finally dead once and for all, and increases Santorum's chances of winning by larger margins (and getting more delegates) in other Southern states which have yet to vote like Louisiana, Arkansas, and North Carolina. This will add to Santorum's strength so far in the plains states/counties, but it won't be enough to overcome Romney's strength in the more populated urban & coastal areas.

    Most of Paul's soft support appears to have defected to Romney, like they did last time. He still does well in rural parts of the north and west, and his campaign's greater organization means that his supporters are in far more delegate spots than the official count, so he will have more influence over the party as a whole. His supporters are also gaining more power in local and state party apparatus in many places.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thusnelda View Post
    I guess that Romney will be the winner at the end of the day because he has won (and is going to win) the more important states, but can he afford to neglect the huge Christian-conservative supporter base of Rick Santorum and all the states where Rick Santorum has been the clear winner?
    Those people all want Obama gone and out of office no matter what, so they will vote for whoever the Republican nominee is. Also, most of the states where Santorum has won are usually won by large margins by the Republicans.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thusnelda View Post
    Could it be a possible solution to make Rick Santorum his running-mate for vice-presidency?
    Highly doubtful. Santorum says a lot of controversial things, and would drive away more people than he would draw in. The Christian conservatives will vote Republican no matter what, the 'swing voters' that they need to appeal to win election are generally fiscally conservative, socially moderate to liberal, middle to upper class, suburban or even urban; and include many younger/single/female voters. All of these are groups that Santorum will scare away more than attract.

    It would also have 2 northeasterners on the ticket, which I think doesn't matter anymore, but many people still think it does.

    Romney will probably pick one of the more popular governors or former governors as a running mate. My bet would be Tim Pawlenty, a former Governor of Minnesota who dropped out of the race early on after investing a huge amount of money in the Iowa Straw Poll and then finishing a distant third place behind Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann. Like Santorum he appeals to midwesterners and working class people, but unlike Santorum he does not say controversial things and draw lots of negative attention to himself.
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    Thanks for the interesting input, Vistula, and for the firsthand informations as well as your own views on the matter. So the race remains a heated-up one and there´s obviously no clear result any time soon. That Santorum now wins in the Southern states must have been a negative surprise to Romney. Some newer polls suggests that both Romney and Santorum are more or less on par with Obama now, but Obama hasn´t started his campaign as yet.

    Out of all the candidates who started to compete for presidency, I´d never have expected Santorum to become the most important rival of Mitt Romney. My bets were on Rick Perry, Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann.

    There´re even some juvenile supports of Santorum now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SwordOfTheVistula View Post

    Highly doubtful. Santorum says a lot of controversial things, and would drive away more people than he would draw in. The Christian conservatives will vote Republican no matter what, the 'swing voters' that they need to appeal to win election are generally fiscally conservative, socially moderate to liberal, middle to upper class, suburban or even urban; and include many younger/single/female voters. All of these are groups that Santorum will scare away more than attract.
    Santorum appeals to the kind of voters that are wary of Romney. Santorum has negatives with the electorate at large but then so does Biden. I think Santorum would be a better pick then Pawlenty, who's campaign went nowhere. And it is the bottom of the ticket, a lot of persons who could never when election to the POTUS have been VP nominees on winning tickets. Quayle, Cheney, Biden.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thusnelda View Post
    That Santorum now wins in the Southern states must have been a negative surprise to Romney.
    Probably not really a surprise. Gingrich hasn't finished first in any state since South Caorolina other than his home state of Georgia. Most people are now saying that Gingrich's continued campaign actually hurts Romney, since he picks up just enough support to keep Romney under half of the delegates.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thusnelda View Post
    Some newer polls suggests that both Romney and Santorum are more or less on par with Obama now, but Obama hasn´t started his campaign as yet.
    Obama has been in campaign mode for at least the past year, making lots of visits to important states and so on. The difference between Paul & Romney compared to Gingrich & Santorum in the polls is that when Paul & Romney poll poorly against Obama, it is because of getting lower poll numbers amongst conservative/Republican voters; people who will mostly end up voting for the Republican candidate against Obama no matter what happens even if they now say they will not. Gingrich & Santorum on the other hand have had troubles winning over independent and centrist voters, sometimes they will poll well against Obama on a day in which a dead rat in a gutter would poll well against Obama.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thusnelda View Post
    Out of all the candidates who started to compete for presidency, I´d never have expected Santorum to become the most important rival of Mitt Romney. My bets were on Rick Perry, Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann.
    Basically, they all got destroyed, and Santorum was sort of the 'last man standing' by process of elimination. Rick Perry ran a horrible campaign and kept self destructing despite the best efforts of everyone around him to resurrect his campaign. Michele Bachmann endured a massive and vicious attack campaign by the liberal media which made even many Republicans view her as 'unelectable'. Ron Paul was hit with an even more massive and vicious attack campaign by the 'conservative' establishment media. We joke around sometimes about idiots who blame 'zionists' for everything, but in this case it really was Paul's willingness to put American interests above Israeli interests which led to the 'conservative' establishment media who launched a sudden, coordinated blitz on Paul, dredging up those old 'racist' newsletters and similar irrelevant topics along with total made up nonsense.



    Santorum appeals to the kind of voters that are wary of Romney. Santorum has negatives with the electorate at large but then so does Biden. I think Santorum would be a better pick then Pawlenty, who's campaign went nowhere. And it is the bottom of the ticket, a lot of persons who could never when election to the POTUS have been VP nominees on winning tickets. Quayle, Cheney, Biden.
    Biden never really had the type of negatives those other guys did. Quayle probably contributed a fair bit to Bush I's loss in 1992. Cheney was put on the ticket in order to have an older, experienced person on the ticket in order to balance out Bush II. In 2008, Sarah Palin was made the Vice Presidential nominee for exactly the reasons you point out, to short up support amongst conservatives who are reluctant to support a moderate nominee. Sarah Palin was given a large part of the blame for the massive loss in that election, unfairly I think, but that's what people think, and they will be unwilling to put a Sarah Palin act-alike on the ticket.
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    I'd much rather have Santorum than Romney. I wish former General Jerry Boykin was running for president.
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