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Thread: The Crash - Coming Financial Collapse of America

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    The Crash - Coming Financial Collapse of America

    The beginning of a U.S. currency crisis and hyperinflation.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9ZnfG6wgQ4

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb1n1X0Oqdw

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    Funny thing most economists don't think very far ahead, probably because they don't want to. After the crisis in 2008, everyone said the financial future looked great again. Most who see a bit further had already forseen this coming crisis even before the last one started.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Méldmir View Post
    Funny thing most economists don't think very far ahead, probably because they don't want to. After the crisis in 2008, everyone said the financial future looked great again. Most who see a bit further had already forseen this coming crisis even before the last one started.
    You must also realise that those who do see and think far ahead are not likely to tell you about it unless you actually pay for their services. The investment strategists who devise the trading strategies of Goldman Sachs, the hedgefunds and so on do not really publish their findings. When they do tell you what they think (for free that is) you can bet that they have some kind of agenda; best case scenario: they want to market themselves and their analytical abilities.

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    I started to learn survival training with Tom Brown Jr. When you can live in the wilderness that is a safety net hard to beat.
    weel nich will dieken dej mot wieken

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    Perfect timing, coming on the day that "official" UK inflation hit 3.7%

    TBH, I'm no economist but how you can have the printing presses producing all these extra TRILLIONS of $'s £'s and €'s without devaluing said currencies and causing inflation is a mystery. And yet I've even heard some (self-appointed) experts talking about DE-flation and just feel inclined to laugh out loud as I continue reading my "Economics 101" paperback.

    Now what was Rule #1 again? Something like The more of something you have, the less it's worth I believe? It could be about time to go out and and grab some gold, I reckon!

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    Well that so-called "flash crash" the other week was certainly interesting...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godwinson View Post
    TBH, I'm no economist but how you can have the printing presses producing all these extra TRILLIONS of $'s £'s and €'s without devaluing said currencies and causing inflation is a mystery.
    First of all they are not so much printing money as creating credits, and when credits vaporise (as when the debtor goes into default or pays back what he owes) the credits are destroyed and money in circulation decreases. Thus you must create new credits and put them into circulation in order to not have deflation, or -- if the market is unable or unwilling to borrow -- print and spend some money. Credit relates to debt as matter to anti-matter.

    Second, what they are measuring is consumer price inflation, and that they tend to do in some funny ways. Gold, houses and other investment assets are not part of that index. Inflation is only registered -- and identified as such -- as consumer prices increase. Mortgages enters the consumer price indices through the amount spent on interest, so the low interest rates we are having now are actually deflationary -- at least viewed from the perspective of consumer prices.

    Anyway, we will just have to wait and see. Sooner or later inflation will pick up.

    ________________________________________ ____
    EDIT:

    Oh, and I almost forgot that assets are a source of credit as long as you can and is willing to borrow against them. Monetising assets through borrowing against them as collateral effectively puts purchasing power (money) into the economy. Since people are no longer taking out second mortgages to spend on cars etc. or are willing to run up high credit card bills that important driver of demand, and thus inflation, is not present. You could perhaps argue that the US is at a point when it has to inject money into the economy to keep demand up. We live in a planned economy (see e.g. Galbraith's The New Industrial State) and the powers that be do not like to see demand falling below the expected level.

    We saw the demand for cars plummeting in the beginning of the crisis -- followed by a default by GM -- whereas now, after bailouts and quantitative easing and what not demand for cars seem to be picking up again. The worrisome part is that all this demand comes from credit. People are borrowing money to purchase new cars, and that means that more debt is piled up on the ever growing pile that is already there. Some day that will (probably) have to be paid.

    You can see it as something of a gamble: If you borrow to the hilt and then some only to see the Fed wash your debts away through quantitative easing, congratulations. If interest rates instead go up and you discover that they reregulated the market so that your debts are no longer nonrecourse, adieu.

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    Inflation has already picked up for food & other consumer items. The average American family is suffering the effects of inflation, but because real estate & the stock market are still way down from their record prices, the geniuses who run the Fed claim we are still in danger from deflation.

    The one good thing from the current financial mess is that housing is more affordable in certain areas of the US like California - assuming you have a job.

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    Thanks for the link, Segestan, and that's pretty much how I see events unfolding too, as apocalyptic as it may all seem!

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