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Thread: The First Country to Leave the Euro?

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    The First Country to Leave the Euro?

    By Daniel Hannan

    Daniel Hannan is a writer and journalist, and has been Conservative MEP for South East England since 1999. He speaks French and Spanish and loves Europe, but believes that the EU is making its constituent nations poorer, less democratic and less free.

    The first country to leave the Euro? What about Germany?

    Greece won’t be forced out of the euro. Too many politicians – across the EU as a whole, not just in Greece – have too much at stake. The unhappy Hellenes, unable to slash interest rates or make their currency more competitive, will have to suffer lost output and unemployment in order to keep the project going.

    A far more interesting question was the one raised by the superlative Ambrose yesterday. What if the first country to leave the euro were to be Germany? What if the stolid Teutons, fed up with rescuing others from the consequences of their profligacy, were simply to walk away and bequeath the legal carcass of EMU to the Mediterranean states?

    It won’t happen tomorrow. It won’t happen this year. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Germans no longer fall for the assertion that they must uncomplainingly sign cheques to the rest of Europe. When I made this point in the chamber a few months ago, a German MEP shouted that I was trying to start the Second World War again (see here). When vocalised, his accusation sounded preposterous. But all he had done was to put into words the implicit assumption that has guided German foreign policy for half a century.

    Fortunately for all of us, his fellow countrymen have now seen through it.
    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Germany is our natural ally. If it weren’t for the wretched EU, we’d be getting along famously.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...about-germany/

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    Germany leave the Euro? Hardly. Where's the ECB located?

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    Yes, I do take your point! That said, in this global age I don’t think the physical location of a bank would be a major factor.

    There are two opposing reasons why a country might leave the Euro. One is being forced out of it in order to unburden the others (and there are vague mumblings about this happening to Greece) and the other is a voluntary opt-out by a nation that is fed up of subsidizing the weaker members, which is where Germany comes in.

    It probably won't happen, or at least I doubt that Germany will be the first to leave, but it's an interesting line of argument.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godwinson
    It probably won't happen, or at least I doubt that Germany will be the first to leave, but it's an interesting line of argument.
    If only...

    I find the linked article from the brackets (see here) far more interesting, hehe


    The problems to opt out of that nonsense are various, one is that Germany has been one of the driving forces behind its introduction. Back then polls were made which showed a good majority (ranging between 50-60 percent, with the commonly known advice dont believe a statistic that you havent faked yourself; never met anyone who wanted the Euro ) being against the Euro. But of course Germany doesnt offer referendums, so it was forced upon us.

    But indeed Germans still like their good old DM, there are still shops who take it, and it is said that several billion DM are still around. And it is not rare to hear from people they want real money again and not that monopoly game paper stuff.

    The trust into the Euro is pretty much down, not least because of huge mistakes made, consciously, by the government during its introduction. There were, unlike as in other countries, no price fixing, so things that had costed 0,99DM more often than not costed suddenly 0,79€ instead of 0,51€. While the salaries were exchanged with the accurate rate of 1:1,95583 and still are on that (most branches dont even get the inflation rate as 'plus') level, prices are meanwhile almost 1:1, so we have seen at least doubling costs with halfed income. The Euro did indeed produce a lot of people below poverty level.

    There are more reasons, but when you ask people on the street they would take back the DM without thinking twice. Politicians though are all for the Euro. Without a revolution, Germany will not opt out


    Though pondering the idea, given the fact that Germany, with France, still is the main financial source for EU and the driving forces behind the Euro, if we would opt out, I think the rests of both would vanish in a blubb. The EU would break apart (which will most likely happen anyway, relatively soon when we believe some sources) and the countries would hurry to reintroduce their own currency, to have at least a chance to survive, lest they end like Dubai
    Ein Leben ist nichts, deine Sprosse sind alles
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    Interesting, Velvet!

    I also discovered to my surprise (on holiday in Cologne 2 years ago) that shops were still taking the old DM’s!! I had a chat with one of the shop owners and she more or less confirmed everything you’ve just said about inflation etc..

    Our UK government is currently trying by any means (even devaluing the £) to coax us into the € but people are not having it! Many can still remember the “Decimalisation” fiasco of the 1970s which led to inflation of 24% at one point.

    Most of the arguments I hear in favour of the Euro are purely superficial, “convenience” ones such as 'I won’t have to change my money when I go on holiday' but I think the arguments against it are far weightier, especially the economic independence and national sovereignty issues.

    As you say, it will only take one major player such as Germany to back out and the whole system will collapse, but another possibility is that several smaller nations could bring it down. The Eurozone could survive the exit of Greece on its own but we also have Spain, Portugal and Ireland in dire straits.

    Basically, there’s no telling how this will unfold but I’m sure that one way or another there are troubled times ahead. Having said this, I don’t think the future is looking too bright for the £ either!

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    Franco-German bailout of Athens expected to avert euro collapse

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...e-germany-euro
    The Germans, apparently determined to avert any euro crisis, are leading the drive to concoct a Greek bailout. They may not reveal full details tomorrow, but they are certain to insist on punitive terms for loans or loan guarantees, and also may dash hopes of a "European" bailout plan in favour of bilateral pacts between national governments and Athens. Berlin is said to believe this will confer greater clout and rigour in forcing Greece to meet a bailout's terms – major public spending cuts, better revenue collection, reliable data, and reforms to the pension, health, and civil service systems.
    The obvious issue is moral hazard. Once Greece (or any EU nation) gets a bailout, why adhere to any austerity measures? The Greeks know they will get another bailout.

    The internationalists/globalists want the EU to succeed so badly, it seems they'll reduce the German people to poverty to make it work. When will the Germans have had enough?

    Added:
    And here's a bit more on Germany's exposure.

    Spain is running a budget deficit of 11.4% of GDP. German banks have six times the exposure to Spain that they do to Greece, so is it reasonable to expect that Spain will get a bailout too?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...-to-the-piigs/

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    Assuming the EU should exist at all, Greece ideally should not be in it. It is an Orthodox state and that fact causes it to be at loggerheads on sundry issues with its Western partners. Having Greece around hasn't even really been of much help in blunting Turkey, as its government favors Turkish accession.

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    There are several UK newspapers headlining with our national debt today because the latest figures show it's in excess of £2 trillion (which is £33,000 per capita!) and we're actually in a worse situation than Greece

    Here's a link to the Daily Mail ...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...d-Britain.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Velvet
    But indeed Germans still like their good old DM, there are still shops who take it, and it is said that several billion DM are still around. And it is not rare to hear from people they want real money again and not that monopoly game paper stuff.
    I did not know this about the German shops. I am very happy to hear that. I miss the DM, could not imagine living without our own Krona.

    Quote Originally Posted by Godwinson
    What if the first country to leave the euro were to be Germany? What if the stolid Teutons, fed up with rescuing others from the consequences of their profligacy, were simply to walk away and bequeath the legal carcass of EMU to the Mediterranean states?
    That would be a wonderful sight to behold and a glorious day for all of Europe.

    More realistically and probable, the first state to leave by default might well be the EU's own poster child Belgium. It is a totally artificial construct and so grown into a natural political base for the EU bureaucracy in Brussels. The productive Flemish Germanics are being oppressed by the Walloon-EU axis. Belgium has been in constitutional crisis and close to collapse not so long ago. When it finally does reach political collapse, and hopefully the Flemish unites with Holland, that would be a serious credibility blow for the EU. The ripples of impact from that would be enormous and then could spread on to other countries who have matured and are ripe for change.

    There are many more irritated & disappointed member countries today than 20 years ago. The more the elite grabs power, the more abused and disillusioned the member populations will feel. Just look as Ireland and the UK. The eastern bloc has of course, because of their history of oppression, already seen through the charade and are voicing important dissenting opinions in the parliament. There are also natural democratic allies outside, such as Freedom-loving Norway and Switzerland.

    I suspect that the EU itself might eventually face a constitutional crisis since it has no mechanism for any member leaving the union. That is not feasible in the long run, because it is clearly undemocratic. Sooner or later it will be challenged judicially by someone party somewhere. Once a precedent has been set and a core member leaves, then anything is possible.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reader View Post
    Franco-German bailout of Athens expected to avert euro collapse

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...e-germany-euro
    The obvious issue is moral hazard. Once Greece (or any EU nation) gets a bailout, why adhere to any austerity measures? The Greeks know they will get another bailout.

    The internationalists/globalists want the EU to succeed so badly, it seems they'll reduce the German people to poverty to make it work. When will the Germans have had enough?

    Added:
    And here's a bit more on Germany's exposure.

    Spain is running a budget deficit of 11.4% of GDP. German banks have six times the exposure to Spain that they do to Greece, so is it reasonable to expect that Spain will get a bailout too?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...-to-the-piigs/
    Check it out what the 'PIIGS' owe UK, France, and Germany:



    so if those guys 'go down', so do the frog banks, and then the German, etc.
    so the Germans have to work till 67 and have their money skimmed off to pay for Stavros's pension he gets when he retires at 53 and gets his '14 months a year' of wages, otherwise 'their' banks go down

    of course it will happen anyway, hopefully ending the EURO and even the EU with it

    speaking of PIIGS, I can't help find it interesting that this well-known term on what's dragging down the 'single european economy' consists of... the non-Germanic countries. (well, until recently)
    I wonder if there's anything in that...

    the OP is probably quite accurate since only a 'strong' country (ie Germany) could feasibly plan for leaving the Euro (but there is no way the politicians would do this, unless the people literally forced them to), a weak one (like Greece) cannot realistically 'choose' to leave; so they're all stuck together in this horrible monster with the only 'escape' probably being if it all comes crashing down.

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