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Thread: The upcoming US military draft?

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    Post The upcoming US military draft?

    [Note that this draft appears to be designed to deflect the sort of criticism, applied to the Vietnam-era draft, that the sons of the rich were effectively exempt - also note that it includes women as well as men.]


    The Draft will Start in June 2005

    (May 27, 2004)

    There is pending legislation in the House and Senate (twin bills: S 89 and HR 163) which will time the program's initiation so the draft can begin at early as Spring 2005 -- just after the 2004 presidential election. The administration is quietly trying to get these bills passed now, while the public's attention is on the elections, so our action on this is needed immediately.

    $28 million has been added to the 2004 Selective Service System (SSS) budget to prepare for a military draft that could start as early as June 15, 2005. Selective Service must report to Bush on March 31, 2005 that the system, which has lain dormant for decades, is ready for activation. Please see website: www.sss.gov/perfplan_fy2004.html to view the sss annual performance plan - fiscal year 2004.

    The pentagon has quietly begun a public campaign to fill all 10,350 draft board positions and 11,070 appeals board slots nationwide.. Though this is an unpopular election year topic, military experts and influential members of congress are suggesting that if Rumsfeld's prediction of a "long, hard slog" in Iraq and Afghanistan [and a permanent state of war on "terrorism"] proves accurate, the U.S. may have no choice but to draft.

    Congress brought twin bills, S. 89 and HR 163 forward this year, http://www.hslda.org/legislation/na...s89/default.asp entitled the Universal National Service Act of 2003, "to provide for the common defense by requiring that all young persons [age 18--26] in the United States, including women, perform a period of military service or a period of civilian service in furtherance of the national defense and homeland security, and for other purposes." These active bills currently sit in the committee on armed services.

    Dodging the draft will be more difficult than those from the Vietnam era. College and Canada will not be options. In December 2001, Canada and the U.S. signed a "smart border declaration," which could be used to keep would-be draft dodgers in. Signed by Canada's minister of foreign affairs, John Manley, and U.S. Homeland Security director, Tom Ridge, the declaration involves a 30-point plan which implements, among other things, a "pre-clearance agreement" of people entering and departing each country.

    Reforms aimed at making the draft more equitable along gender and class lines also eliminates higher education as a shelter. Underclassmen would only be able to postpone service until the end of their current semester. Seniors would have until the end of the academic year.
    Even those voters who currently support US actions abroad may still object to this move, knowing their own children or grandchildren will not have a say about whether to fight. Not that it should make a difference, but this plan, among other things, eliminates higher education as a shelter and includes women in the draft.

    The public has a right to air their opinions about such an important decision.

    http://www.congress.org/congressorg/...ua_congressorg


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    Senior Member Scoob's Avatar
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    Post Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    What ages will be drafted?

    This war won't be won by sending in lots of troops. What is needed is propaganda and smart weapons.
    "Whatever is done from love always occurs beyond good and evil." - F. Nietzsche

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    Post Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    In the current versions of these Congressional bills the ages subject to the draft appear to be 18-26. However, I've read in some other articles that apparently some congressmen would prefer the ages to be 18-34, in order to substantially increase the size of the draft pool. In either case, obviously, 18-26 year olds are on the hook.

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    Post Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    [Officials are now denying that there are plans to reinstate the draft - though, one would hardly expect them to say anything else in the months prior to an election. These official denials don't seem to square well with the legislation that has been introduced in Congress, or objective assessments of the force requirements of the US military given its current pattern of operations.]

    No Plans for Military Draft, Official Says



    By Josh White
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Thursday, July 8, 2004; Page A10


    There are no plans to reinstate a military draft and the Bush administration does not support conscription, the Pentagon's top official for personnel and readiness told Congress yesterday.

    Trying to counter recent Internet rumors that the military and the Selective Service System are girding for a potential draft to support operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, Undersecretary of Defense David S.C. Chu said there is no reason to bring back the draft. He fielded questions at a House Armed Services Committee hearing that focused on the strains on military personnel as officials plan to rotate more troops into the conflicts in coming months.
    "The administration does not support resumption of the draft," Chu said, responding to a question from Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.). "There is no secret plan on this front."

    Members of the committee bemoaned the rising stress on the Army and the increasing use of the National Guard and Reserves. Chu and top military officials said that there is definitely a strain, but that the Army can handle its current operations while relying on reserve forces to share "the burden of service" throughout the all-volunteer military.

    There are 18 brigades with more than 140,000 troops in Iraq, and officials said yesterday that the next rotation will keep about 135,000 troops there in 17 brigades. The U.S military is expected to have a presence in Iraq for several years, but Pentagon officials yesterday declined to speak to the committee publicly about future rotations, saying only that they will be "different."

    Last week, the Army announced it is dipping into a pool of soldiers who have left active duty, calling up 5,600 this week who are in the Individual Ready Reserve. While the IRR has more than 111,000 members, the Army's Human Resources Command has identified more than 22,000 it could call into service if needed. Pentagon officials have said they probably will tap into some of that pool.

    A recent "stop-loss" order kept thousands of soldiers in the military despite their plans to leave active duty, and it followed a Pentagon decision to move thousands of troops from South Korea into western Iraq by early next year. The Army is also sending its elite training forces overseas.

    As of the next rotation into Iraq, reserve components are slated to make up 43 percent of the forces there, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    Gen. Richard A. Cody, the Army's vice chief of staff, said forces are "absolutely" stretched thin. He also said the entire force is doing a job it was not necessarily trained for, arguing that the Army needs to reconfigure from a Cold War stance to a more versatile force for the global war on terrorism. "This is a different war," he said.

    Some lawmakers said yesterday that they fear the military is dangerously close to being broken. Rep. Ike Skelton (Mo.), the committee's ranking Democrat, said he believes that the military is wearing its soldiers out. Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said he believes the military is "using people pretty hard right now" and needs to consider expanding, an idea the Pentagon has resisted because it would raise the military's budget.

    "We are also concerned that insufficient force structure and manpower are leaving the services to make a decision that I liken to eating the seed corn," committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) said.



    © 2004 The Washington Post Company http://www.washingtonpost.com/

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    Post Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    There are something like 2 million 18-year-old American males. They simply don't need 2 million more G.I.s. If they're looking to draft males 18-26, there would be a pool of 18 million (2 million x 9).
    What would they need that many new soldiers for? What would they do with all of them ? That's why I think this won't happen
    hail Arminius

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    Post Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    Well, I think your conclusion is based on a flawed assumption, namely that they would draft a substantial portion of the total available draft pool at the same time. But, the way the draft pool works is they try to assemble as large a pool as possible, so that they have the widest possible range of options for drafting the people they need, when they need them, for various operational purposes as they arise.

    That's the way it worked during the Vietnam war as well. There was a large draft pool, but only a relatively small number of people would be selected by the draft lottery to serve at any given time (hence the name, 'selective service').
    Also, bear in mind that not everyone drafted gets sent to the 'front lines'. Every infantryman, for instance, requires a number of logistical types to support him. If you want to draft an additional 50,000 infantry, you need to draft at least several times as many people to serve in logistical and support positions, unless you want your exisiting logistical network to become overburdened.

    As it is, there are three basic policy options; abandon the occupation of Iraq and the troop presence in Afghanistan, and avoid the draft; maintain the occupations and strain the military's currently available resources until the infantry (in particular) can simply no longer function adequately, especially in terms of threats in other theatres (e.g. East Asia); or, maintain current operations and reinstate the draft so that the military can quickly induct new troops when it needs them, in the numbers that it requires.

    The military may not necessarily care for the draft option, since they have long had a preference for the all-volunteer army over a conscript army. But the military doesn't set the foreign policy agenda; the politicians do. Bush (explicitly through the Project for a New American Century document and the National Security Strategy of the US, 2002), and it seems Kerry as well, both have a foreign policy agenda towards the Middle East, and to some extent East Asia, that requires a continuing and even escalating troop presence in these places. Therefore, unless they want the US military to collapse under logistical strain and lack of manpower, a draft is a military necessity.

    The only way there won't be a draft is if there is a profound shift in US foreign policy objectives, and I don't see any realistic sign of that for the foreseeable future.

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    Thumbs Up Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    You may be right about this. You have to admit though, that based on the way the government and the Pentagon is talking right now (denying it outright again and again), a draft doesn't seem likely. Realistically I can't see Congress passing a bill that re-institutes the draft. Can you? It's not a sign of an imminent draft that there is Draft legislation before Congress right now, as Draft legislation is nothing new. There have been several bills to re-institute it since it was stopped in '73, all have failed
    hail Arminius

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    Mad Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Scoob
    What ages will be drafted?

    This war won't be won by sending in lots of troops. What is needed is propaganda and smart weapons.




    I think too many people are too familiar with your propaganda and what it is really about.


    Smart weapons? You mean those precision-guided missiles that put an abrupt end to all those wedding parties?!




    http://wolnapolska.boom.ru/index-Milosevic.html




    http://michalw.narod.ru/SlavicSpain.html

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    Post Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeDas
    You may be right about this. You have to admit though, that based on the way the government and the Pentagon is talking right now (denying it outright again and again), a draft doesn't seem likely. Realistically I can't see Congress passing a bill that re-institutes the draft. Can you? It's not a sign of an imminent draft that there is Draft legislation before Congress right now, as Draft legislation is nothing new. There have been several bills to re-institute it since it was stopped in '73, all have failed
    It's hard to say. There would be massive political resistance to the idea, of course. But, the only alternative to the draft, unless they want the military to disintegrate under its current logistical strain, is to end the occupation of Iraq entirely, and to scale back troop commitments elsewhere.

    That's a possible outcome, naturally, though it raises its own thorny political dilemmas. The biggest problem is that if Iraq, post US withdrawal, dissolves into chaos or civil war, and/or the Saudi regime falls to Islamists (which appears to be a worry of many Western observers at the present time), then the security of the US oil supply in the Middle East will be severely jeopardized, and the US will lack the troop strength to effectively intervene. That in turn would cause a massive disruption to the US economy.

    So, my own view is a draft in 2005 is questionable, but a draft within the next several years is quite likely. Basically, the US has gotten a free ride off Middle East oil for a long time, but as political instability increases in that region, and physical oil supplies become strained, the chickens are coming home to roost. Americans can't guzzle gasoline like there's no tomorrow, and at the same time refuse to make the difficult decisions that will likely be necessary to maintain adequate supplies of it.

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    Post Re: More specific information on the upcoming US military draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Telperion
    It's hard to say. There would be massive political resistance to the idea, of course. But, the only alternative to the draft, unless they want the military to disintegrate under its current logistical strain, is to end the occupation of Iraq entirely, and to scale back troop commitments elsewhere.

    That's a possible outcome, naturally, though it raises its own thorny political dilemmas. The biggest problem is that if Iraq, post US withdrawal, dissolves into chaos or civil war, and/or the Saudi regime falls to Islamists (which appears to be a worry of many Western observers at the present time), then the security of the US oil supply in the Middle East will be severely jeopardized, and the US will lack the troop strength to effectively intervene. That in turn would cause a massive disruption to the US economy.

    So, my own view is a draft in 2005 is questionable, but a draft within the next several years is quite likely. Basically, the US has gotten a free ride off Middle East oil for a long time, but as political instability increases in that region, and physical oil supplies become strained, the chickens are coming home to roost. Americans can't guzzle gasoline like there's no tomorrow, and at the same time refuse to make the difficult decisions that will likely be necessary to maintain adequate supplies of it.
    Another terrorist attack, and the political opposition to a draft that would dissolve. We all remember the few weeks immediately after 9/11, at that time the government could've done anything they wanted...

    At least you're lucky enough to be past the SSS recruitment age by a few years, I'll be in the SSS database until 2012!
    hail Arminius

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