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View Full Version : Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming



Ćmeric
Thursday, March 1st, 2007, 07:21 PM
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural - and not a human-induced-cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.

Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caised by changes in the sun.

"Long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

Solar Cycles

Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.

Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.

"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot complete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov beleives he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by othe climate scientists.

"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report."

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea isn't supported by theory or by the observations."

Planet's Wobbles

The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.

"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained.

All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on times scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.

These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth.

Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now.

"Mars has no moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.

No Greenhouse

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.

But "without the greenhouse effect there would be little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would be pretty much a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.

Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.

Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun hold something quite different in store.

"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."

White_One
Friday, March 2nd, 2007, 12:28 PM
New search for global warming at poles


Earth's coldest regions are vital heat sinks and, eventually, hold the key to future rises in sea levels.
By Peter N. Spotts | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Page 1 of 2

For the next two years, the coldest places on Earth will become some of the hottest laboratories in the history of modern science.

This Thursday marks the official start of the International Polar Year (IPY), an unprecedented research assault on Antarctica and the Arctic.

Some 10,000 scientists from more than 60 countries launched the push because of significant changes they see taking place at these frozen ends of the Earth. Many hold that global warming is triggering these changes, including shrinking sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, thawing permafrost, and growing instability in Greenland's ice cap and in some floes coursing through Antarctica's ice cap.

The US kicks off its part of the $1.5-billion project with opening ceremonies Tuesday in Washington.

The goal is to gain a deeper understanding of processes affecting everything from the flow of glaciers, and key features of polar climate to plankton and polar bears. In addition, researchers plan to leave a legacy of networked, standard sensors and buoys that will help track changes in these crucial regions long after the IPY ends.

Why North and South poles matter

At first glance, the poles may seem too remote to matter to anyone who doesn't live there. But Earth's "cryosphere" – its high-latitude regions of snow and ice – represents a central piece of the climate system. The poles act as sinks for the heat generated in the tropics and carried toward higher latitudes by the oceans and atmosphere. Over many centuries, the ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica hold the key to future sea-level rise as the climate warms up north.

Thus, the hidden hand of a changing Arctic reaches farther south than icebergs alone suggest.

"There is no magic curtain that drops down at 60 degrees north," says ice scientist Jacqueline Richter-Menge, who heads climate-related research at the US Army Corps of Engineers' Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H.

MORE, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0226/p03s03-wogi.html?page=1

White_One
Thursday, March 15th, 2007, 10:33 AM
Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says


Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.

Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. (Get an overview: "Global Warming Fast Facts".)


Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

Solar Cycles

Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.

Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.

"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists.

MORE; http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

Pervitinist
Thursday, March 15th, 2007, 12:48 PM
Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

That's really some fascinating news. I doubt, however, that it will have any impact on an ecological policy that is guided by ideology rather than reason.

No wonder these findings haven't been "well received" by other "climate scientists" (whose funding depends on the political decision that there is a purely man made "ecological catastrophe").

SubGnostic
Thursday, March 15th, 2007, 04:58 PM
That's really some fascinating news. I doubt, however, that it will have any impact on an ecological policy that is guided by ideology rather than reason.

No wonder these findings haven't been "well received" by other "climate scientists" (whose funding depends on the political decision that there is a purely man made "ecological catastrophe").The climate on Earth has previously went through similar drastic changes we are facing now, but there's no doubt man has played a part in it today. The question is how big that part is.

Whatever the "ideology" behind the political measures yet to be enforced for the benefit of Earth is based on, it's a welcome effort.

Gall Óglach
Friday, March 16th, 2007, 04:24 PM
Recently Channel 4 (UK) aired a documentry claiming to refute that global warming had any connection to CO2, and instead Solar activity was to blame.

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-4520665474899458831&q=global+warming+swindle