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View Full Version : 1 in 10 false paternity rate; A simple online test(!) to find out.



Nagelfar
Sunday, February 25th, 2007, 09:24 PM
10% or higher is the widely academically accepted number of people who think that the person who is their father, actually is not;

http://www.canadiancrc.com/articles/Globe_and_Mail_Moms_Little_secret_14DEC0 2.htm

In the above article there is a paragraph that states;


In the early 1970s, a schoolteacher in southern England assigned a class science project in which his students were to find out the blood types of their parents. The students were then to use this information to deduce their own blood types (because a gene from each parent determines your blood type, in most instances only a certain number of combinations are possible). Instead, 30 per cent of the students discovered their dads were not their biological fathers.

I found a website where anyone who knows both of their parents blood types can actually do a check;

http://www.biology.arizona.edu/Human_Bio/problem_sets/blood_types/inherited.html

Remember, although 10% is 1 in 10 statistically; there are not very many permutations of blood types and multiple results from different combinations can occur, this method isn't by any degree as certain as a DNA test or the 1 in 10 margin. It can only rule out a potential father, and much less of the time.

Ĉmeric
Sunday, February 25th, 2007, 09:35 PM
:scratch 30% seems very high. Maybe the children didn't calculate correctly. Or maybe it was a misunderstanding. Perhaps they did not realize someone with type A for example, can have a child with type O.

Istigkeit
Sunday, February 25th, 2007, 09:40 PM
Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Isn't blood type really AA, AO, BB, et cetera, instead of just A, O, B, and such?

Ĉmeric
Sunday, February 25th, 2007, 10:22 PM
Yes, that's right. A person who is AO would have type A but could have a child with type O. Persons with type O are OO. For example, if the parents are AO(A) and BO(B) their children could be OO(O), AO(A), BO(B) or AB.

Nagelfar
Monday, February 26th, 2007, 05:02 AM
The methodology still works though. Since A could be AA or AO, depending on whether the other parent is AA or AO, it could be or A, O. If both are AA, it is always AA, but it doesn't get that specific, but the site predictor is still correct.

Ĉmeric
Monday, February 26th, 2007, 05:13 AM
The methodology works, but I think some people are using the methodology incorrectly. Or maybe they're inputting incorrect bloodtypes. 10% false paternity is very high, let alone 30%. Unless you are talking about areas where illegitimacy is common, like inner city ghettos & barrios.
Of course another thing to remember is that people who are testing for paternity may have reason to be suspicious. People who don't doubt the paternity of their children will not bother with these kinds of tests.

Dr. Solar Wolff
Monday, February 26th, 2007, 06:03 AM
There is a better methodology to establish the false paternity rate. Use only AB children. Both A and B are dominant over O and co-dominant to themselves. Using a sample of AB children, have them sample their "fathers". If any father is O (O is recessive so this is really OO), this father would be a false father. This frequency could be applied to the population as a whole and would be easier and more accurate than what was used. To refine this, you would have to establish the frequencies of all three alleles in the subject population (using Hardy-Weinberg) and subtract one quarter (.25) of the total for AO and BO from the children's sample (because AO and BO father frequencies are O recessive--AO and BO fathers whose recessive alleles were not counted otherwise who would have donated an A or B to the child)--.5 are men (we assume) so we subtract .25.

There is one other flaw. The "mother" might not have told the child that he or she was adopted. It would be interesting to use both parents and establish real adoption rates and subtract them from the false-father rates in the original study for a more accurate number.

Nagelfar
Monday, February 26th, 2007, 06:07 AM
The methodology works, but I think some people are using the methodology incorrectly. Or maybe they're inputting incorrect bloodtypes. 10% false paternity is very high, let alone 30%. Unless you are talking about areas where illegitimacy is common, like inner city ghettos & barrios.
Of course another thing to remember is that people who are testing for paternity may have reason to be suspicious. People who don't doubt the paternity of their children will not bother with these kinds of tests.

The link is claiming basic human behavior; it is all about the legal issues of disclosing false paternity with DNA tests that have nothing to do with paternity questioning; apparently, if a hospital or lab finds this out, they keep it secret for the best interest of the patient/client; in this case, the child; because of the reasoning that letting the parents know could break them up. It's a rather interesting article.

Ĉmeric
Monday, February 26th, 2007, 05:56 PM
It accured to me that the reason for false paternity is not because of infidelity on the part of the mother, but perhaps because the hospitals may have given the wrong baby to new mothers checking out of hospitals. It does happen. There have been cases of that in the US. and the hospitals involve have no reason to disclose such mixups. They may prefer to blame cases of false paternity on infidelity then hospital screwups. It would be interesting to see how many false maternity cases there are.

Istigkeit
Monday, February 26th, 2007, 09:35 PM
It accured to me that the reason for false paternity is not because of infidelity on the part of the mother, but perhaps because the hospitals may have given the wrong baby to new mothers checking out of hospitals. It does happen. There have been cases of that in the US. and the hospitals involve have no reason to disclose such mixups. They may prefer to blame cases of false paternity on infidelity then hospital screwups. It would be interesting to see how many false maternity cases there are.

That's happened a few times. There might even be some Lifetime movie about it. I do know, however, that the hospital would most likely test the blood type of the parents and the babies in question to determine paternity/maternity, or a DNA test.