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Tryggvi
Sunday, September 19th, 2004, 09:31 PM
July 26, 2003


American vs. European Crime Rates


A German lawyer, in response to another blog entry (German Justice: 2 Days Per Murder (http://www.tinyvital.com/BlogArchives/000091.html)), repeated the common European belief that the United States has a much higher crime rate than major European countries. The facts are quite different...

[UPDATE 8/15/2003 - For sources, see end of article]

[Warning: this article is politically incorrect. If you are likely to be offended by this, you need to read it!]

Here are Interpol 2001 crime statistics (rate per 100,000):


4161 - US
7736 - Germany
6941 - France
9927 - England and Wales
Thus the US has a substantially lower crime rate than the major European countries!

Here are the Interpol 1995 crime statistics (rate per 100,000):


5278 - US
8179 - Germany
6316 - France
7206 - England & Wales
Hence the trend in the US is towards a lower crime rate, while the trend in Europe (except Germany) is towards an increasing crime rate.

It is true that we (USA) have a high murder rate, mostly of criminals killing criminals, but a distressingly large number of people killing their spouses in anger, and the rate of "stranger killings" is rising.

However, the homicide rates have been dropping dramatically as we have been increasing penalties:

Homicide Rate/100,000 by Date in US:


1980 - 10.2
2000 - 5.5
Also, our murder rate is high largely due to the multicultural nature of our society. Inner city blacks, members of a distinct subculture, have a vastly higher criminal and victim homicide rate than our society as an average:

Homicide Offender Rate/100,000 by Race in US (2000):


3.4 - White
25.8 - Black
3.2 - Other
It is often hypothesized that blacks are overrepresented in murder statistics due to racism on the part of police and the justice system. If this were true, one would expect that the race of victims would have significantly different distribution than the race of the perpetrators, but this is not the case:

Homicide Victim Rate/100,000 by Race in US (2000):


3.3 - White
20.5 - Black
2.7 - Other
Thus if you remove homicides committed by blacks (total: 21862, Blacks:9316), and assume a proportionality between number of offenders and number of offenses, you can extrapolate US homicide offender rate of only 2.6/100,000, lower than Germany (3.27) and France (3.91).

One might ask why blacks are singled out. The reason is that inner city blacks are not representative of our culture. The black population is only about 13% of the total, and many blacks do not live in the inner city welfare cultures. Also, dividing the raw numbers into "white", "black" and "other," as was done by the Justice Department, shows that there are more black murderers (9316) than there are white and "other" combined (8346). I do not have statistics breaking out homicide by race AND location, but since most homicides committed by blacks are done in the inner city, the overall black statistic should be a good proxy.

Many, including myself, blame the high inner city crime rate on several factors:


Misguided welfare policies, which have helped to create a culture of irresponsibility.
The ideology of racial separatism (black power, etc.) and its relative, multiculturalism and the cult of victimology.
Centuries of slavery and oppression, which really only came to an end in the 1960-current time period.
That the dramatic increase in the black crime rate came after the rise of the welfare state and the creation of black racial separatism and victimology suggests the causative nature of those factors.

NOTE: Statistics used here are not "cooked" in the sense of using the years that best support my argument. They are simply the oldest and newest years available from the sources, with the exception of the US homicide rate in 1980, which was a maximum over a long time, but not atypical of the period.

NOTE: I found one relatively obvious error in the data above, and have replaced that with accurate data. Also I have slightly changed the wording to better reflect the methods of calculation, and adjusted the non-black rate slightly with the new data. 7/31/2002.

NOTE: The following article by Theodore Dalrymple, a prominent British social critic, would tend to indicate that indeed, as suggested by some commenters, the high violence rate in France may be also due to ethnic minorities (although I was unable to find actual numbers). 10/25/2003.

SOURCES:
International data come from these Interpol documents. (http://www.interpol.int/Public/Statistics/ICS/downloadList.asp)

U.S. Data by Ethnicity comes from this Deparment of Justice document (http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/hmrt.htm). Note that it has separate linked pages, and you need to go into it aways. Also you can get raw numbers by clicking on the graphs.

Posted by (http://www.tinyvital.com/BlogArchives/000220.html) John Moore at July 26, 2003 06:38 PM

JoeDas
Sunday, September 19th, 2004, 10:18 PM
I am confused. What does this guy mean by "crime statistics" (as in, "Here are Interpol 2001 crime statistics rate per 100,000")? They state that Europe's overall crime rate is actually higher than America's. Now, extraordinary claims like this require extraordinary proof. But the apparent source for the crime statistics at the bottom of the article gave me this message when I clicked the link: "The International crime statistics are only available to authorised police users." Without verification of these "crime statistics", I'll have to stick to the conventional wisdom that America has a higher crime rate than Europe.

Also, this guy removes Blacks from the US numbers towards the end of the article and shows how "low" our numbers "really are", but he doesn't remove Blacks, Muslims, and other minorities from the British and French and German numbers that he uses for comparison. You can't compare apples and oranges like that.


And finally, parts of this article remind me of the often-laughed-at quote from the lovable mayor of our nation's capital: "If you take out the killings, Washington actually has a very very low crime rate." -- Marion Barry, Mayor of Washington, DC

The Blond Beast
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 03:01 AM
And finally, parts of this article remind me of the often-laughed-at quote from the lovable mayor of our nation's capital: "If you take out the killings, Washington actually has a very very low crime rate." -- Marion Barry, Mayor of Washington, DC

How black is DC? About 75%?

JoeDas
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 03:21 AM
The city as a whole is like 65% Black. Parts of the city (especially Wards 7 & 8 east of the Anacostia River), are very poor and all-Black. During Marion Barry's three terms as mayor, Washington had the highest murder rate in the country, and when some reporter asked him about that at a news conference, he said that quote.
What's interesting is that Marion Barry was arrested for possession of cocaine, spent time in jail, and was widely made fun of, but people still love him. He had a show on local television in which he talked about current events; and a few days ago he entered DC politics again by easily winning a seat in the City Council from Ward 8. Some people say if Marion Barry died tommorow and appeared on the ballot 10 years from now, he'd still easily win :D

Dr. Solar Wolff
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 05:39 AM
American crime rates are a political issue. Each new, incoming police chief in every major US city want a lower crime rate that the guy he replaced. This means that the police are under pressure to under-report crime. This is exactly what happens. Also, now that major US cities have minorities largely made up of illegal aliens, people who will not usually report crime for fear of discovey and deportation, it is no wonder that rates of reported crime are dropping. Nobody believes it has decreased much, if any.

rusalka
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 06:35 AM
American crime rates are a political issue. Each new, incoming police chief in every major US city want a lower crime rate that the guy he replaced. This means that the police are under pressure to under-report crime. This is exactly what happens. Also, now that major US cities have minorities largely made up of illegal aliens, people who will not usually report crime for fear of discovey and deportation, it is no wonder that rates of reported crime are dropping. Nobody believes it has decreased much, if any.
I hear that it has actually dropped in New York City after Giuliani's term however. I came here the year he left office but I have been told countless times how lucky I was because a couple of years ago it really was hell. He was too conservative for my tastes but apparently he did a good job with cleaning up the city. One can even walk around in Central Park at night and Spiderman is totally obsolete. :D

rusalka
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 06:37 AM
Although in general I'd find it hard to believe that crime rates have gone down in America as a whole. I was in Washington D.C. a few weeks ago and D.C. is pretty scary at night. The population changes drastically and streets are filled with homeless black guys asking for money and following you around after 10 pm. I missed the Big Apple homeless gang after spending a few days there, who almost never stalk you and manage by talking to themselves.

Tryggvi
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 03:46 PM
How black is DC? About 75%? About that if one considers all the illegals. Officially ~65% in 1990. Used to be over ~70% black in the 70s and 80s. Used to be over ~65% white in 40s and 50s.

JoeDas
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 03:59 PM
About that if one considers all the illegals. "illegals"? I assure you, 99%+ of Blacks in Washington DC are native-born and as such cannot possibly be "illegal". Foreign-born Blacks tend to go to Suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia, not DC. No one wants to go to DC. Even the people who already live there don't want to be there! Everyone with the means bailed out of that place deacades ago! :D

Northern Paladin
Monday, September 20th, 2004, 05:29 PM
How black is DC? About 75%?

DC is a very segragated place.
North East DC is basically all black. North West DC is mostly White because a lot of companies are based there and the real estate is very expensive.

bocian
Tuesday, September 21st, 2004, 01:35 AM
http://www.unece.org/stats/trend/ch13.htm

Crime Trends in Europe and America.

It asks to register, but when you click 'register' it just takes you to a new page, and you'll be able to click on the links.

AngryPotato
Tuesday, September 21st, 2004, 05:43 AM
I hear that it has actually dropped in New York City after Giuliani's term however.

Guiliani did a beautiful job cleaning up NYC. No one can imagine the hell hole that it once was a few years back without witnessing it firsthand. NYC might not be the cleanest or safest place now, but it is definitely way better than it used to be.

The average street crime is usually forgiven in the larger cities. Most police officers will just slap the shit out of a drug dealer, take their money, and destroy the drugs... or so I'm told :P Unless it involves a sting or a crime against another most small crimes aren't charged. Our prison systems are stuffed as is.

I don't care if America has more/less crime than Europe. There is too much crime in both areas.