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View Full Version : CIA Has Predicted That the European Union Will Break-Up Within 15 Years



Nachtengel
Saturday, June 27th, 2009, 03:38 PM
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.

http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp

Realistic, or not?

Neophyte
Sunday, June 28th, 2009, 02:27 AM
Not unrealistic, I'd say.

What scares me though is what the economic growth of China and India will do to commodities and energy prices. If you thought oil was expensive at USD 140/barrel, just wait until 2025... And the same will go for steel, copper and wheat. :worried

Snowman
Sunday, June 28th, 2009, 02:23 PM
Good news indeed.

Every one can see at this very moment, that nationalistic parties gets bigger and bigger all over europe, and bigger distrust towards the EU. Just simple looking on how many ppl vote in the European elections.

A note to Neophyte, by the year 2025 most of our coast in the world will be under water, and that have to push the government to install eletric solar panels on all houses and we all runs on hydrogen car.

The chinese eat rice not wheat. I hope they stick to that also :|

prodeutsch
Sunday, June 28th, 2009, 02:52 PM
Barack Hussein Obama is going to save the world so don't worry!:~( Get back to me in 2025 about the climate....global warming hype is just another way for big government/socialists to control me!

Neophyte
Wednesday, July 1st, 2009, 11:50 PM
The chinese eat rice not wheat. I hope they stick to that also :|

Maybe, but the beef that they are eating more and more of for each year ate wheat and soy while it still said 'Mu'. And that will affect your food prices as well.

The scary part is that this development is driving food prices through the roof in 3rd world countries, and when the going gets too tought there, where do they all want to go? To a place near you, of course.